Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CECO Environmental Corp. (CECE)
$11.65
+0.25 (+2.19%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 345.05 | 337.34 | 341.87 | 316.01 | 324.14 | 319.37 | 314.67 | 310.05 | 305.49 | 300.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 24.22 | 22.91 | 29.35 | 25.34 | 16.92 | 22.76 | 22.43 | 22.10 | 21.77 | 21.45 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 8.13 | 9.64 | 18.74 | 15.42 | 7.07 | 11.34 | 11.17 | 11.01 | 10.85 | 10.69 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 16.09 | 13.27 | 10.61 | 9.92 | 9.85 | 11.42 | 11.25 | 11.09 | 10.92 | 10.76 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 29.90 | 43.68 | 35.60 | 35.99 | 29.90 | 33.62 | 33.13 | 32.64 | 32.16 | 31.69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 101.94 | 82.92 | 103.24 | 108.54 | 126.42 | 100.71 | 99.23 | 97.77 | 96.33 | 94.92 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 20.97 | 20.82 | 20.58 | 17.34 | 17.05 | 18.53 | 18.26 | 17.99 | 17.73 | 17.47 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 45.41 | 51.98 | 48.76 | 55.90 | 56.24 | 49.74 | 49.01 | 48.29 | 47.58 | 46.88 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.03 | -3.09 | -5.65 | -3.94 | -2.62 | -3.14 | -3.10 | -3.05 | -3.01 | -2.96 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 11.65 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.232 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 35.59 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 69.49 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.20% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.507 |
| Total Debt | 74.96 |
| Total Equity | 414.68 |
| Total Capital | 489.64 |
| Debt Weighting | 15.31 |
| Equity Weighting | 84.69 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 345.05 | 337.34 | 341.87 | 316.01 | 324.14 | 319.37 | 314.67 | 310.05 | 305.49 | 300.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 24.22 | 22.91 | 29.35 | 25.34 | 16.92 | 22.76 | 22.43 | 22.10 | 21.77 | 21.45 |
| EBIT | 8.13 | 9.64 | 18.74 | 15.42 | 7.07 | 11.34 | 11.17 | 11.01 | 10.85 | 10.69 |
| Tax Rate | 314.98% | 385.18% | -32.70% | 30.67% | 69.49% | 153.53% | 153.53% | 153.53% | 153.53% | 153.53% |
| EBIAT | -17.48 | -27.48 | 24.87 | 10.69 | 2.16 | -6.07 | -5.98 | -5.89 | -5.81 | -5.72 |
| Depreciation | 16.09 | 13.27 | 10.61 | 9.92 | 9.85 | 11.42 | 11.25 | 11.09 | 10.92 | 10.76 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 19.02 | -20.32 | -5.30 | -17.88 | 25.71 | 1.48 | 1.46 | 1.44 | 1.42 |
| Inventories | - | 0.15 | 0.24 | 3.24 | 0.29 | -1.48 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 6.57 | -3.22 | 7.14 | 0.34 | -6.50 | -0.73 | -0.72 | -0.71 | -0.70 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.03 | -3.09 | -5.66 | -3.94 | -2.62 | -3.14 | -3.10 | -3.05 | -3.01 | -2.96 |
| UFCF | -2.42 | 8.44 | 6.52 | 21.73 | -7.85 | 19.93 | 3.20 | 3.15 | 3.10 | 3.06 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 18.41 | 2.73 | 2.48 | 2.26 | 2.06 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 27.94 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.24 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3.12 |
| Terminal Value | 49.96 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 33.63 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 61.57 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 45.05 |
| Equity Value | 16.51 |
| Shares Outstanding | 35.59 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 0.46 |