Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
China Gold International Resources ... (CGG.TO)
$4.86
+0.07 (+1.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 411.88 | 570.57 | 657.46 | 864.03 | 1,137.36 | 1,469.49 | 1,898.62 | 2,453.06 | 3,169.42 | 4,094.96 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 186.60 | 190.73 | 188.61 | 350.24 | 516.76 | 568.37 | 734.35 | 948.80 | 1,225.87 | 1,583.86 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 93.38 | 39.87 | 14.78 | 163.06 | 340.96 | 237.35 | 306.66 | 396.21 | 511.92 | 661.41 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 93.22 | 150.85 | 173.83 | 187.18 | 175.80 | 331.02 | 427.69 | 552.59 | 713.96 | 922.45 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 147.32 | 138 | 182.29 | 243.29 | 208.13 | 394.22 | 509.35 | 658.09 | 850.26 | 1,098.56 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 224.50 | 282.96 | 281.12 | 297.69 | 299.65 | 610.30 | 788.52 | 1,018.79 | 1,316.30 | 1,700.70 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 26.19 | 44.67 | 38.61 | 45.63 | 43.27 | 85.66 | 110.67 | 142.99 | 184.75 | 238.70 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -256.43 | -133.37 | -130.64 | -151.39 | -154.08 | -401.38 | -518.60 | -670.04 | -865.71 | -1,118.51 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 4.86 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.938 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 396.41 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 14.21 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.70% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 12.647 |
Total Debt | 973.27 |
Total Equity | 1,926.57 |
Total Capital | 2,899.84 |
Debt Weighting | 33.56 |
Equity Weighting | 66.44 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 411.88 | 570.57 | 657.46 | 864.03 | 1,137.36 | 1,469.49 | 1,898.62 | 2,453.06 | 3,169.42 | 4,094.96 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 186.60 | 190.73 | 188.61 | 350.24 | 516.76 | 568.37 | 734.35 | 948.80 | 1,225.87 | 1,583.86 |
EBIT | 93.38 | 39.87 | 14.78 | 163.06 | 340.96 | 237.35 | 306.66 | 396.21 | 511.92 | 661.41 |
Tax Rate | 16.49% | -398.66% | -32.18% | 10.74% | 14.21% | -77.88% | -77.88% | -77.88% | -77.88% | -77.88% |
EBIAT | 77.99 | 198.84 | 19.54 | 145.55 | 292.51 | 422.20 | 545.49 | 704.79 | 910.61 | 1,176.53 |
Depreciation | 93.22 | 150.85 | 173.83 | 187.18 | 175.80 | 331.02 | 427.69 | 552.59 | 713.96 | 922.45 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 0.03 | -0 | -0 | 0 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
Inventories | - | -58.46 | 1.83 | -16.57 | -1.95 | -310.66 | -178.22 | -230.27 | -297.51 | -384.39 |
Accounts Payable | - | 18.48 | -6.06 | 7.02 | -2.37 | 42.39 | 25.01 | 32.32 | 41.76 | 53.95 |
Capital Expenditure | -256.43 | -133.37 | -130.64 | -151.39 | -154.08 | -401.38 | -518.60 | -670.04 | -865.71 | -1,118.51 |
UFCF | -85.22 | 176.37 | 58.50 | 171.80 | 309.91 | 83.56 | 301.38 | 389.38 | 503.09 | 650.01 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 76.44 | 252.22 | 298.13 | 352.38 | 416.51 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,395.68 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.31 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 663.01 |
Terminal Value | 9,069.90 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 5,811.70 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 7,207.38 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 765.14 |
Equity Value | 6,442.24 |
Shares Outstanding | 396.41 |
Equity Value Per Share | 16.25 |