Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

China Gold International Resources ... (CGG.TO)

$4.86

+0.07 (+1.46%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 16.25 | 4.86 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	411.88	570.57	657.46	864.03	1,137.36	1,469.49	1,898.62	2,453.06	3,169.42	4,094.96
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	186.60	190.73	188.61	350.24	516.76	568.37	734.35	948.80	1,225.87	1,583.86
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	93.38	39.87	14.78	163.06	340.96	237.35	306.66	396.21	511.92	661.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	93.22	150.85	173.83	187.18	175.80	331.02	427.69	552.59	713.96	922.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	147.32	138	182.29	243.29	208.13	394.22	509.35	658.09	850.26	1,098.56
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	0.03	0	0	0	0	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.06
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	224.50	282.96	281.12	297.69	299.65	610.30	788.52	1,018.79	1,316.30	1,700.70
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	26.19	44.67	38.61	45.63	43.27	85.66	110.67	142.99	184.75	238.70
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-256.43	-133.37	-130.64	-151.39	-154.08	-401.38	-518.60	-670.04	-865.71	-1,118.51
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 4.86
Beta	1.938
Diluted Shares Outstanding	396.41
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	14.21
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.70%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	12.647
Total Debt	973.27
Total Equity	1,926.57
Total Capital	2,899.84
Debt Weighting	33.56
Equity Weighting	66.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	411.88	570.57	657.46	864.03	1,137.36	1,469.49	1,898.62	2,453.06	3,169.42	4,094.96
EBITDA	186.60	190.73	188.61	350.24	516.76	568.37	734.35	948.80	1,225.87	1,583.86
EBIT	93.38	39.87	14.78	163.06	340.96	237.35	306.66	396.21	511.92	661.41
Tax Rate	16.49%	-398.66%	-32.18%	10.74%	14.21%	-77.88%	-77.88%	-77.88%	-77.88%	-77.88%
EBIAT	77.99	198.84	19.54	145.55	292.51	422.20	545.49	704.79	910.61	1,176.53
Depreciation	93.22	150.85	173.83	187.18	175.80	331.02	427.69	552.59	713.96	922.45
Accounts Receivable	-	0.03	-0	-0	0	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
Inventories	-	-58.46	1.83	-16.57	-1.95	-310.66	-178.22	-230.27	-297.51	-384.39
Accounts Payable	-	18.48	-6.06	7.02	-2.37	42.39	25.01	32.32	41.76	53.95
Capital Expenditure	-256.43	-133.37	-130.64	-151.39	-154.08	-401.38	-518.60	-670.04	-865.71	-1,118.51
UFCF	-85.22	176.37	58.50	171.80	309.91	83.56	301.38	389.38	503.09	650.01
WACC
PV UFCF						76.44	252.22	298.13	352.38	416.51
SUM PV UFCF										1,395.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.31
Free cash flow (t + 1)	663.01
Terminal Value	9,069.90
Present Value of Terminal Value	5,811.70

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	7,207.38
Net Debt	765.14
Equity Value	6,442.24
Shares Outstanding	396.41
Equity Value Per Share	16.25