Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

China Gold International Resources ... (CGG.TO)

$4.86

+0.07 (+1.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 16.25 | 4.86 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 411.88570.57657.46864.031,137.361,469.491,898.622,453.063,169.424,094.96
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 186.60190.73188.61350.24516.76568.37734.35948.801,225.871,583.86
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 93.3839.8714.78163.06340.96237.35306.66396.21511.92661.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 93.22150.85173.83187.18175.80331.02427.69552.59713.96922.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 147.32138182.29243.29208.13394.22509.35658.09850.261,098.56
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 0.0300000.020.030.030.040.06
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 224.50282.96281.12297.69299.65610.30788.521,018.791,316.301,700.70
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 26.1944.6738.6145.6343.2785.66110.67142.99184.75238.70
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -256.43-133.37-130.64-151.39-154.08-401.38-518.60-670.04-865.71-1,118.51
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.86
Beta 1.938
Diluted Shares Outstanding 396.41
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 14.21
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.70%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.647
Total Debt 973.27
Total Equity 1,926.57
Total Capital 2,899.84
Debt Weighting 33.56
Equity Weighting 66.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 411.88570.57657.46864.031,137.361,469.491,898.622,453.063,169.424,094.96
EBITDA 186.60190.73188.61350.24516.76568.37734.35948.801,225.871,583.86
EBIT 93.3839.8714.78163.06340.96237.35306.66396.21511.92661.41
Tax Rate 16.49%-398.66%-32.18%10.74%14.21%-77.88%-77.88%-77.88%-77.88%-77.88%
EBIAT 77.99198.8419.54145.55292.51422.20545.49704.79910.611,176.53
Depreciation 93.22150.85173.83187.18175.80331.02427.69552.59713.96922.45
Accounts Receivable -0.03-0-00-0.02-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01
Inventories --58.461.83-16.57-1.95-310.66-178.22-230.27-297.51-384.39
Accounts Payable -18.48-6.067.02-2.3742.3925.0132.3241.7653.95
Capital Expenditure -256.43-133.37-130.64-151.39-154.08-401.38-518.60-670.04-865.71-1,118.51
UFCF -85.22176.3758.50171.80309.9183.56301.38389.38503.09650.01
WACC
PV UFCF 76.44252.22298.13352.38416.51
SUM PV UFCF 1,395.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.31
Free cash flow (t + 1) 663.01
Terminal Value 9,069.90
Present Value of Terminal Value 5,811.70

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 7,207.38
Net Debt 765.14
Equity Value 6,442.24
Shares Outstanding 396.41
Equity Value Per Share 16.25