Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. (CHCI)

$3.97

+0.03 (+0.76%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1.75 | 3.97 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 45.4356.7525.3228.7331.0930.4129.7429.0928.4627.83
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -4.77-5.101.592.462.720.250.250.240.230.23
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -4.95-5.261.372.442.630.130.130.130.120.12
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.180.170.220.030.090.120.120.110.110.11
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1.815.783.5113.3420.538.548.368.177.997.82
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 0.644.285.531.480.052.202.152.102.052.01
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 44.7120.2516.9819.2620.8520.3919.9419.5119.0818.66
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8.284.731.440.522.652.592.532.482.422.37
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.05-0.08-0.21-0.15-0.19-0.13-0.13-0.13-0.12-0.12
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.97
Beta 1.131
Diluted Shares Outstanding 8.54
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -182.23
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.19%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.144
Total Debt 7.36
Total Equity 33.90
Total Capital 41.26
Debt Weighting 17.84
Equity Weighting 82.16
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 45.4356.7525.3228.7331.0930.4129.7429.0928.4627.83
EBITDA -4.77-5.101.592.462.720.250.250.240.230.23
EBIT -4.95-5.261.372.442.630.130.130.130.120.12
Tax Rate -6.01%9.06%39.09%9.48%-182.23%-26.12%-26.12%-26.12%-26.12%-26.12%
EBIAT -5.24-4.790.832.217.410.170.160.160.160.15
Depreciation 0.180.170.220.030.090.120.120.110.110.11
Accounts Receivable --3.64-1.254.051.44-2.150.050.050.050.05
Inventories -24.463.28-2.29-1.590.460.450.440.430.42
Accounts Payable --3.55-3.29-0.922.12-0.06-0.06-0.06-0.05-0.05
Capital Expenditure -0.05-0.08-0.21-0.15-0.19-0.13-0.13-0.13-0.12-0.12
UFCF -5.1212.56-0.422.939.29-1.600.590.570.560.55
WACC
PV UFCF -1.480.500.450.410.37
SUM PV UFCF 0.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.08
Free cash flow (t + 1) 0.56
Terminal Value 9.21
Present Value of Terminal Value 6.24

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 6.51
Net Debt -8.46
Equity Value 14.97
Shares Outstanding 8.54
Equity Value Per Share 1.75