Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Chegg, Inc. (CHGG)
$21.34
+0.45 (+2.15%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 255.07 | 321.08 | 410.93 | 644.34 | 776.27 | 1,030.76 | 1,368.70 | 1,817.43 | 2,413.27 | 3,204.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 0.93 | 20.57 | 68.13 | 127.85 | 86.77 | 112.09 | 148.83 | 197.63 | 262.42 | 348.46 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -18.41 | -2.23 | 37.88 | 65.44 | 12.64 | 26.98 | 35.83 | 47.58 | 63.18 | 83.89 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 19.34 | 22.81 | 30.25 | 62.41 | 74.13 | 85.10 | 113 | 150.05 | 199.24 | 264.57 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 208.20 | 468.01 | 768.59 | 1,145.42 | 1,545.86 | 1,631.35 | 2,166.19 | 2,876.37 | 3,819.39 | 5,071.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 10.85 | 12.73 | 11.53 | 12.91 | 17.85 | 31.60 | 41.97 | 55.72 | 73.99 | 98.25 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 7.05 | 8.18 | 7.36 | 8.55 | 11.99 | 20.56 | 27.30 | 36.25 | 48.14 | 63.92 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -26.14 | -31.22 | -42.33 | -139.88 | -105.11 | -135.08 | -179.36 | -238.17 | -316.25 | -419.94 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 21.34 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.110 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 146.70 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 125.41 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.10% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.772 |
| Total Debt | 1,697.27 |
| Total Equity | 3,130.56 |
| Total Capital | 4,827.82 |
| Debt Weighting | 35.16 |
| Equity Weighting | 64.84 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 255.07 | 321.08 | 410.93 | 644.34 | 776.27 | 1,030.76 | 1,368.70 | 1,817.43 | 2,413.27 | 3,204.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 0.93 | 20.57 | 68.13 | 127.85 | 86.77 | 112.09 | 148.83 | 197.63 | 262.42 | 348.46 |
| EBIT | -18.41 | -2.23 | 37.88 | 65.44 | 12.64 | 26.98 | 35.83 | 47.58 | 63.18 | 83.89 |
| Tax Rate | -9.75% | -10.63% | -37.79% | -622.53% | 125.41% | -111.06% | -111.06% | -111.06% | -111.06% | -111.06% |
| EBIAT | -20.20 | -2.47 | 52.19 | 472.80 | -3.21 | 56.95 | 75.62 | 100.42 | 133.34 | 177.05 |
| Depreciation | 19.34 | 22.81 | 30.25 | 62.41 | 74.13 | 85.10 | 113 | 150.05 | 199.24 | 264.57 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.88 | 1.20 | -1.38 | -4.94 | -13.75 | -10.36 | -13.76 | -18.27 | -24.26 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.13 | -0.82 | 1.19 | 3.44 | 8.57 | 6.74 | 8.95 | 11.88 | 15.78 |
| Capital Expenditure | -26.14 | -31.22 | -42.33 | -139.88 | -105.11 | -135.08 | -179.36 | -238.17 | -316.25 | -419.94 |
| UFCF | -27.01 | -11.64 | 40.50 | 395.13 | -35.68 | 1.79 | 5.64 | 7.49 | 9.95 | 13.21 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1.69 | 5.05 | 6.35 | 7.98 | 10.03 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 31.11 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.65 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 13.47 |
| Terminal Value | 369.05 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 280.37 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 311.48 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 843.19 |
| Equity Value | -531.70 |
| Shares Outstanding | 146.70 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -3.62 |