Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR.TO)

$3.07

+0.02 (+0.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -24.78 | 3.07 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,355.141,451.191,366.45948.721,023.27968.37916.41867.23820.70776.66
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 331.63284.06370.03363.12270.46263.07248.95235.59222.95210.99
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 228.39163.37233.08138.7669.33128.93122.01115.46109.27103.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 103.24120.69136.95224.35201.13134.14126.94120.13113.68107.58
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 71.2592.5987.17165.72123.5792.1187.1782.4978.0773.88
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 79.6677.8074.55120.64138.0883.1078.6474.4270.4266.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 51.5455.6961.8481.1976.2454.5751.6448.8746.2543.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 191.67173.30161.96136.35194.51138.12130.71123.70117.06110.78
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -564.70-326.71-875.70-406.14-74.71-345.47-326.94-309.39-292.79-277.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.07
Beta 2.193
Diluted Shares Outstanding 161.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.52
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.73%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.198
Total Debt 1,913.81
Total Equity 496.07
Total Capital 2,409.88
Debt Weighting 79.42
Equity Weighting 20.58
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,355.141,451.191,366.45948.721,023.27968.37916.41867.23820.70776.66
EBITDA 331.63284.06370.03363.12270.46263.07248.95235.59222.95210.99
EBIT 228.39163.37233.08138.7669.33128.93122.01115.46109.27103.41
Tax Rate 8.92%35.69%15.86%11.70%26.52%19.74%19.74%19.74%19.74%19.74%
EBIAT 208.02105.07196.11122.5350.94103.4897.9392.6787.7083
Depreciation 103.24120.69136.95224.35201.13134.14126.94120.13113.68107.58
Accounts Receivable -1.863.25-46.09-17.4454.984.464.223.993.78
Inventories --4.15-6.15-19.354.9521.672.932.772.622.48
Accounts Payable --18.38-11.34-25.6158.16-56.38-7.41-7.01-6.64-6.28
Capital Expenditure -564.70-326.71-875.70-406.14-74.71-345.47-326.94-309.39-292.79-277.08
UFCF -253.43-121.62-556.88-150.30223.03-87.58-102.09-96.61-91.43-86.52
WACC
PV UFCF -82.88-91.41-81.86-73.30-65.64
SUM PV UFCF -395.08

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) -88.25
Terminal Value -2,398.17
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,819.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,214.43
Net Debt 1,790.24
Equity Value -4,004.68
Shares Outstanding 161.59
Equity Value Per Share -24.78