Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR.TO)

$3.07

+0.02 (+0.66%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -24.78 | 3.07 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,355.14	1,451.19	1,366.45	948.72	1,023.27	968.37	916.41	867.23	820.70	776.66
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	331.63	284.06	370.03	363.12	270.46	263.07	248.95	235.59	222.95	210.99
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	228.39	163.37	233.08	138.76	69.33	128.93	122.01	115.46	109.27	103.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	103.24	120.69	136.95	224.35	201.13	134.14	126.94	120.13	113.68	107.58
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	71.25	92.59	87.17	165.72	123.57	92.11	87.17	82.49	78.07	73.88
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	79.66	77.80	74.55	120.64	138.08	83.10	78.64	74.42	70.42	66.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	51.54	55.69	61.84	81.19	76.24	54.57	51.64	48.87	46.25	43.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	191.67	173.30	161.96	136.35	194.51	138.12	130.71	123.70	117.06	110.78
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-564.70	-326.71	-875.70	-406.14	-74.71	-345.47	-326.94	-309.39	-292.79	-277.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 3.07
Beta	2.193
Diluted Shares Outstanding	161.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	26.52
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.73%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.198
Total Debt	1,913.81
Total Equity	496.07
Total Capital	2,409.88
Debt Weighting	79.42
Equity Weighting	20.58
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,355.14	1,451.19	1,366.45	948.72	1,023.27	968.37	916.41	867.23	820.70	776.66
EBITDA	331.63	284.06	370.03	363.12	270.46	263.07	248.95	235.59	222.95	210.99
EBIT	228.39	163.37	233.08	138.76	69.33	128.93	122.01	115.46	109.27	103.41
Tax Rate	8.92%	35.69%	15.86%	11.70%	26.52%	19.74%	19.74%	19.74%	19.74%	19.74%
EBIAT	208.02	105.07	196.11	122.53	50.94	103.48	97.93	92.67	87.70	83
Depreciation	103.24	120.69	136.95	224.35	201.13	134.14	126.94	120.13	113.68	107.58
Accounts Receivable	-	1.86	3.25	-46.09	-17.44	54.98	4.46	4.22	3.99	3.78
Inventories	-	-4.15	-6.15	-19.35	4.95	21.67	2.93	2.77	2.62	2.48
Accounts Payable	-	-18.38	-11.34	-25.61	58.16	-56.38	-7.41	-7.01	-6.64	-6.28
Capital Expenditure	-564.70	-326.71	-875.70	-406.14	-74.71	-345.47	-326.94	-309.39	-292.79	-277.08
UFCF	-253.43	-121.62	-556.88	-150.30	223.03	-87.58	-102.09	-96.61	-91.43	-86.52
WACC
PV UFCF						-82.88	-91.41	-81.86	-73.30	-65.64
SUM PV UFCF										-395.08

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.68
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-88.25
Terminal Value	-2,398.17
Present Value of Terminal Value	-1,819.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-2,214.43
Net Debt	1,790.24
Equity Value	-4,004.68
Shares Outstanding	161.59
Equity Value Per Share	-24.78