Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Chuy's Holdings, Inc. (CHUY)
$21.61
-1.59 (-6.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 369.59 | 398.20 | 426.36 | 320.95 | 396.47 | 409.97 | 423.92 | 438.36 | 453.28 | 468.71 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 41.08 | 23.07 | 25.19 | 20.21 | 64.17 | 37.14 | 38.41 | 39.71 | 41.07 | 42.47 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 23.52 | 3.27 | 3.44 | -9.06 | 34.40 | 11.35 | 11.74 | 12.14 | 12.55 | 12.98 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 17.56 | 19.80 | 21.76 | 29.26 | 29.77 | 25.79 | 26.67 | 27.58 | 28.52 | 29.49 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 8.79 | 8.20 | 10.07 | 86.82 | 106.62 | 49.80 | 51.50 | 53.25 | 55.07 | 56.94 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 10.27 | 4.25 | 1.68 | 1.51 | 2.89 | 4.46 | 4.61 | 4.77 | 4.93 | 5.10 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1.60 | 1.54 | 1.66 | 1.45 | 1.68 | 1.71 | 1.77 | 1.83 | 1.89 | 1.95 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 6.40 | 6.46 | 4.25 | 2.98 | 4.13 | 5.18 | 5.36 | 5.54 | 5.73 | 5.92 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -49.19 | -44.09 | -32.87 | -12.15 | -16.41 | -32.81 | -33.93 | -35.08 | -36.28 | -37.51 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 21.61 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.793 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 20.10 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 11.92 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.06% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.301 |
| Total Debt | 201.74 |
| Total Equity | 434.38 |
| Total Capital | 636.12 |
| Debt Weighting | 31.71 |
| Equity Weighting | 68.29 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 369.59 | 398.20 | 426.36 | 320.95 | 396.47 | 409.97 | 423.92 | 438.36 | 453.28 | 468.71 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 41.08 | 23.07 | 25.19 | 20.21 | 64.17 | 37.14 | 38.41 | 39.71 | 41.07 | 42.47 |
| EBIT | 23.52 | 3.27 | 3.44 | -9.06 | 34.40 | 11.35 | 11.74 | 12.14 | 12.55 | 12.98 |
| Tax Rate | -23.45% | -73.91% | -87.54% | 0.00% | 11.92% | -34.60% | -34.60% | -34.60% | -34.60% | -34.60% |
| EBIAT | 29.04 | 5.68 | 6.44 | -9.06 | 30.30 | 15.28 | 15.80 | 16.34 | 16.89 | 17.47 |
| Depreciation | 17.56 | 19.80 | 21.76 | 29.26 | 29.77 | 25.79 | 26.67 | 27.58 | 28.52 | 29.49 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 6.02 | 2.58 | 0.17 | -1.39 | -1.57 | -0.15 | -0.16 | -0.16 | -0.17 |
| Inventories | - | 0.06 | -0.12 | 0.21 | -0.23 | -0.03 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.06 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.07 | -2.21 | -1.28 | 1.15 | 1.05 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| Capital Expenditure | -49.19 | -44.09 | -32.87 | -12.15 | -16.41 | -32.81 | -33.93 | -35.08 | -36.28 | -37.51 |
| UFCF | -2.59 | -12.45 | -4.42 | 7.16 | 43.20 | 7.72 | 8.51 | 8.80 | 9.10 | 9.41 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 7.16 | 7.33 | 7.04 | 6.75 | 6.48 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 34.76 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.74 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 9.60 |
| Terminal Value | 167.18 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 115.16 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 149.92 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 95.12 |
| Equity Value | 54.80 |
| Shares Outstanding | 20.10 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 2.73 |