Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Chuy's Holdings, Inc. (CHUY)

$21.61

-1.59 (-6.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 2.73 | 21.61 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 369.59398.20426.36320.95396.47409.97423.92438.36453.28468.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 41.0823.0725.1920.2164.1737.1438.4139.7141.0742.47
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 23.523.273.44-9.0634.4011.3511.7412.1412.5512.98
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 17.5619.8021.7629.2629.7725.7926.6727.5828.5229.49
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 8.798.2010.0786.82106.6249.8051.5053.2555.0756.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 10.274.251.681.512.894.464.614.774.935.10
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1.601.541.661.451.681.711.771.831.891.95
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6.406.464.252.984.135.185.365.545.735.92
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -49.19-44.09-32.87-12.15-16.41-32.81-33.93-35.08-36.28-37.51
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 21.61
Beta 1.793
Diluted Shares Outstanding 20.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 11.92
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.06%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.301
Total Debt 201.74
Total Equity 434.38
Total Capital 636.12
Debt Weighting 31.71
Equity Weighting 68.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 369.59398.20426.36320.95396.47409.97423.92438.36453.28468.71
EBITDA 41.0823.0725.1920.2164.1737.1438.4139.7141.0742.47
EBIT 23.523.273.44-9.0634.4011.3511.7412.1412.5512.98
Tax Rate -23.45%-73.91%-87.54%0.00%11.92%-34.60%-34.60%-34.60%-34.60%-34.60%
EBIAT 29.045.686.44-9.0630.3015.2815.8016.3416.8917.47
Depreciation 17.5619.8021.7629.2629.7725.7926.6727.5828.5229.49
Accounts Receivable -6.022.580.17-1.39-1.57-0.15-0.16-0.16-0.17
Inventories -0.06-0.120.21-0.23-0.03-0.06-0.06-0.06-0.06
Accounts Payable -0.07-2.21-1.281.151.050.180.180.190.20
Capital Expenditure -49.19-44.09-32.87-12.15-16.41-32.81-33.93-35.08-36.28-37.51
UFCF -2.59-12.45-4.427.1643.207.728.518.809.109.41
WACC
PV UFCF 7.167.337.046.756.48
SUM PV UFCF 34.76

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.74
Free cash flow (t + 1) 9.60
Terminal Value 167.18
Present Value of Terminal Value 115.16

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 149.92
Net Debt 95.12
Equity Value 54.80
Shares Outstanding 20.10
Equity Value Per Share 2.73