Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ciena Corporation (CIEN)

$44.11

+0.06 (+0.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 86.82 | 44.11 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,801.693,094.293,572.133,532.163,620.683,867.564,131.274,412.954,713.855,035.26
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 334.88314.05473.35619.81625.85542.90579.92619.46661.70706.82
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 211.98204.03350.64487.28493.59397.62424.73453.69484.62517.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 122.90110.02122.71132.53132.27145.29155.19165.77177.08189.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 919.65894.401,013.981,239.291,604.031,311.131,400.531,496.021,598.031,706.99
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 633.89812.84837.04827.231,004.72955.261,020.391,089.971,164.281,243.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 267.14262.75345.05344.38374.26369.53394.72421.64450.39481.10
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 260.10340.58344.82291.90356.18371.63396.97424.04452.95483.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -94.60-67.62-62.58-82.67-79.55-91.67-97.92-104.60-111.73-119.35
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 44.11
Beta 1.033
Diluted Shares Outstanding 156.74
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -8.09
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.84%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.567
Total Debt 803.68
Total Equity 6,913.93
Total Capital 7,717.62
Debt Weighting 10.41
Equity Weighting 89.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,801.693,094.293,572.133,532.163,620.683,867.564,131.274,412.954,713.855,035.26
EBITDA 334.88314.05473.35619.81625.85542.90579.92619.46661.70706.82
EBIT 211.98204.03350.64487.28493.59397.62424.73453.69484.62517.66
Tax Rate -708.29%331.68%19.08%20.76%-8.09%-68.97%-68.97%-68.97%-68.97%-68.97%
EBIAT 1,713.40-472.69283.74386.11533.53671.86717.67766.61818.88874.71
Depreciation 122.90110.02122.71132.53132.27145.29155.19165.77177.08189.15
Accounts Receivable --178.96-24.199.81-177.4949.46-65.13-69.57-74.32-79.39
Inventories -4.39-82.300.67-29.894.74-25.20-26.91-28.75-30.71
Accounts Payable -80.484.24-52.9164.2715.4625.3427.0728.9130.88
Capital Expenditure -94.60-67.62-62.58-82.67-79.55-91.67-97.92-104.60-111.73-119.35
UFCF 1,741.70-524.37241.62393.53443.14795.14709.95758.36810.07865.31
WACC
PV UFCF 735.76607.88600.84593.89587.01
SUM PV UFCF 3,125.38

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.07
Free cash flow (t + 1) 882.61
Terminal Value 14,540.55
Present Value of Terminal Value 9,864.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 12,989.43
Net Debt -618.86
Equity Value 13,608.29
Shares Outstanding 156.74
Equity Value Per Share 86.82