Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CIRCOR International, Inc. (CIR)

$17.69

-1.45 (-7.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -100.41 | 17.69 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 661.711,175.83964.31773.27758.67830.75909.69996.121,090.771,194.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 46.93103.999.05-24.05-1.2422.6024.7427.1029.6732.49
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 16.8925.98-60.59-88.10-24.09-26.73-29.27-32.05-35.10-38.43
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 30.0478.0169.6464.0522.8549.3354.0259.1564.7770.92
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 110.3668.5284.5376.4559.9281.5189.2597.73107.02117.19
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 223.92183.55125.42102.73100.15147.78161.82177.20194.03212.47
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 244.90217.38137.31129.08123.34170.62186.83204.58224.02245.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 117.33123.8879.4061.2483.3892.06100.81110.39120.88132.37
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -14.54-23.59-13.85-12.54-14.75-15.30-16.75-18.34-20.08-21.99
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17.69
Beta 2.217
Diluted Shares Outstanding 19.98
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -6.53
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.31%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.349
Total Debt 513.30
Total Equity 353.48
Total Capital 866.79
Debt Weighting 59.22
Equity Weighting 40.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 661.711,175.83964.31773.27758.67830.75909.69996.121,090.771,194.41
EBITDA 46.93103.999.05-24.05-1.2422.6024.7427.1029.6732.49
EBIT 16.8925.98-60.59-88.10-24.09-26.73-29.27-32.05-35.10-38.43
Tax Rate -92.85%-9.12%-1,227.14%-97.05%-6.53%-286.54%-286.54%-286.54%-286.54%-286.54%
EBIAT 32.5728.35-804.10-173.60-25.66-103.33-113.15-123.90-135.67-148.56
Depreciation 30.0478.0169.6464.0522.8549.3354.0259.1564.7770.92
Accounts Receivable -40.3758.1322.692.58-47.63-14.04-15.38-16.84-18.44
Inventories -27.5280.078.235.74-47.27-16.21-17.75-19.44-21.29
Accounts Payable -6.55-44.48-18.1622.158.688.759.5810.4911.49
Capital Expenditure -14.54-23.59-13.86-12.54-14.75-15.30-16.75-18.34-20.08-21.99
UFCF 48.07157.21-654.60-109.3412.91-155.52-97.39-106.64-116.77-127.87
WACC
PV UFCF -141.91-81.09-81.02-80.96-80.89
SUM PV UFCF -465.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.59
Free cash flow (t + 1) -130.43
Terminal Value -1,718.39
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,087.09

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,552.96
Net Debt 453.38
Equity Value -2,006.34
Shares Outstanding 19.98
Equity Value Per Share -100.41