Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Citizens Holding Company (CIZN)
$17.3
-0.35 (-1.98%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 34.57 | 34.74 | 34.55 | 42.75 | 45.68 | 49.17 | 52.92 | 56.96 | 61.31 | 65.98 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 12.12 | 12.90 | 17.89 | 17.23 | 15.11 | 19.41 | 20.89 | 22.48 | 24.20 | 26.04 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 11.12 | 11.96 | 16.98 | 16.11 | 13.94 | 18.09 | 19.47 | 20.95 | 22.55 | 24.27 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 1.12 | 1.17 | 1.32 | 1.42 | 1.53 | 1.65 | 1.77 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 524.54 | 465.42 | 538.88 | 721.06 | 697.04 | 750.23 | 807.48 | 869.10 | 935.43 | 1,006.81 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 4.45 | 4.17 | 4.18 | 5.98 | 5.82 | 6.26 | 6.74 | 7.26 | 7.81 | 8.41 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.20 | 0.47 | 1.13 | 0.52 | 0.73 | 0.79 | 0.85 | 0.91 | 0.98 | 1.06 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.91 | -0.35 | -1.04 | -2.02 | -2.60 | -2.25 | -2.42 | -2.60 | -2.80 | -3.01 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.3 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.062 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 5.57 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 16.03 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 23.39% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 3.133 |
| Total Debt | 18 |
| Total Equity | 96.44 |
| Total Capital | 114.44 |
| Debt Weighting | 15.73 |
| Equity Weighting | 84.27 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 34.57 | 34.74 | 34.55 | 42.75 | 45.68 | 49.17 | 52.92 | 56.96 | 61.31 | 65.98 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 12.12 | 12.90 | 17.89 | 17.23 | 15.11 | 19.41 | 20.89 | 22.48 | 24.20 | 26.04 |
| EBIT | 11.12 | 11.96 | 16.98 | 16.11 | 13.94 | 18.09 | 19.47 | 20.95 | 22.55 | 24.27 |
| Tax Rate | 52.36% | 11.04% | 18.66% | 20.18% | 16.03% | 23.65% | 23.65% | 23.65% | 23.65% | 23.65% |
| EBIAT | 5.30 | 10.64 | 13.81 | 12.86 | 11.70 | 13.81 | 14.86 | 16 | 17.22 | 18.53 |
| Depreciation | 1 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 1.12 | 1.17 | 1.32 | 1.42 | 1.53 | 1.65 | 1.77 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.28 | -0.02 | -1.80 | 0.16 | -0.44 | -0.48 | -0.51 | -0.55 | -0.60 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.27 | 0.66 | -0.61 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.91 | -0.35 | -1.04 | -2.02 | -2.60 | -2.25 | -2.42 | -2.60 | -2.80 | -3.01 |
| UFCF | 3.39 | 11.79 | 14.32 | 9.55 | 10.65 | 12.49 | 13.45 | 14.47 | 15.58 | 16.77 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 11.75 | 11.90 | 12.04 | 12.19 | 12.34 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 60.22 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.32 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 17.10 |
| Terminal Value | 395.88 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 291.40 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 351.63 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 18 |
| Equity Value | 333.63 |
| Shares Outstanding | 5.57 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 59.85 |