Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Calumet Specialty Products Partners... (CLMT)

$13.41

-0.16 (-1.18%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -8.14 | 13.41 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,763.803,497.503,452.602,268.203,1483,117.503,087.303,057.393,027.772,998.44
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 234219.20201.6083.10-1.40136.81135.49134.18132.88131.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 79.20101.1091.50-22-109.1020.0119.8219.6319.4319.25
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 154.80118.10110.10105.10107.70116.80115.67114.55113.44112.34
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 164.30155.7019.10109.4038.1096.0495.1194.1993.2892.37
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 354.10198188.50160.40253222.20220.05217.92215.80213.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 314.40284.10292.60254.90326.60290.33287.51284.73281.97279.24
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 282.30200.60230.20179.30301233230.74228.51226.30224.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -70-49.80-54.90-44-82.90-58.90-58.33-57.77-57.21-56.65
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.41
Beta 2.061
Diluted Shares Outstanding 78.97
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.58
After-tax Cost of Debt 9.44%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.488
Total Debt 1,584.40
Total Equity 1,059.01
Total Capital 2,643.41
Debt Weighting 59.94
Equity Weighting 40.06
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,763.803,497.503,452.602,268.203,1483,117.503,087.303,057.393,027.772,998.44
EBITDA 234219.20201.6083.10-1.40136.81135.49134.18132.88131.59
EBIT 79.20101.1091.50-22-109.1020.0119.8219.6319.4319.25
Tax Rate -230.57%-9.54%-1.16%-0.74%-0.58%-48.52%-48.52%-48.52%-48.52%-48.52%
EBIAT 261.81110.7592.56-22.16-109.7329.7229.4329.1528.8628.59
Depreciation 154.80118.10110.10105.10107.70116.80115.67114.55113.44112.34
Accounts Receivable -156.109.5028.10-92.6030.802.152.132.112.09
Inventories -30.30-8.5037.70-71.7036.272.812.792.762.73
Accounts Payable --81.7029.60-50.90121.70-68-2.26-2.24-2.21-2.19
Capital Expenditure -70-49.80-54.90-44-82.90-58.90-58.33-57.77-57.21-56.65
UFCF 346.61283.75178.3653.84-127.5386.7089.4888.6187.7586.90
WACC
PV UFCF 78.0672.5464.6957.6851.43
SUM PV UFCF 324.41

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.06
Free cash flow (t + 1) 88.64
Terminal Value 978.38
Present Value of Terminal Value 579.06

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 903.47
Net Debt 1,546.30
Equity Value -642.83
Shares Outstanding 78.97
Equity Value Per Share -8.14