Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Continental Resources, Inc. (CLR)

$74.27

+0.03 (+0.04%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: Infinity | 74.27 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,709.59	4,631.95	2,586.47	5,719.32	9,473.71	12,812.24	17,327.26	23,433.38	31,691.28	42,859.27
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	3,447.57	3,277.41	1,374.64	4,325.40	4,610.12	8,235.64	11,137.87	15,062.85	20,370.99	27,549.72
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,588.45	1,257.71	-507.82	2,432.30	2,723.63	2,883.38	3,899.48	5,273.65	7,132.08	9,645.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,859.12	2,019.70	1,882.46	1,893.11	1,886.49	5,352.26	7,238.40	9,789.20	13,238.91	17,904.30
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	282.75	39.40	47.47	20.87	137.79	269.29	364.18	492.52	666.08	900.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,012.41	1,041.49	702.49	1,398.35	1,766.42	2,927.27	3,958.84	5,353.93	7,240.65	9,792.25
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	88.54	109.54	72.16	105.57	173.26	274.42	371.13	501.91	678.79	917.99
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	717.56	629.26	361.70	582.32	850.55	1,587.83	2,147.38	2,904.12	3,927.53	5,311.59
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-2,914.63	-2,860.69	-1,514.14	-4,997.59	-6,384.54	-8,634.44	-11,677.22	-15,792.26	-21,357.44	-28,883.79
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 74.27
Beta	2.333
Diluted Shares Outstanding	-
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-20.14
After-tax Cost of Debt	-3.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	15.540
Total Debt	8,233.78
Total Equity	-
Total Capital	8,233.78
Debt Weighting	100.00
Equity Weighting	0.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,709.59	4,631.95	2,586.47	5,719.32	9,473.71	12,812.24	17,327.26	23,433.38	31,691.28	42,859.27
EBITDA	3,447.57	3,277.41	1,374.64	4,325.40	4,610.12	8,235.64	11,137.87	15,062.85	20,370.99	27,549.72
EBIT	1,588.45	1,257.71	-507.82	2,432.30	2,723.63	2,883.38	3,899.48	5,273.65	7,132.08	9,645.42
Tax Rate	23.79%	21.43%	22.96%	23.77%	-20.14%	14.36%	14.36%	14.36%	14.36%	14.36%
EBIAT	1,210.59	988.22	-391.22	1,854.04	3,272.18	2,469.27	3,339.45	4,516.26	6,107.79	8,260.18
Depreciation	1,859.12	2,019.70	1,882.46	1,893.11	1,886.49	5,352.26	7,238.40	9,789.20	13,238.91	17,904.30
Accounts Receivable	-	-29.07	338.99	-695.86	-368.06	-1,160.85	-1,031.57	-1,395.09	-1,886.72	-2,551.60
Inventories	-	-20.99	37.38	-33.41	-67.70	-101.16	-96.71	-130.79	-176.87	-239.20
Accounts Payable	-	-88.30	-267.56	220.61	268.23	737.29	559.55	756.74	1,023.41	1,384.06
Capital Expenditure	-2,914.63	-2,860.69	-1,514.14	-4,997.59	-6,384.54	-8,634.44	-11,677.22	-15,792.26	-21,357.44	-28,883.79
UFCF	155.08	8.87	85.91	-1,759.09	-1,393.39	-1,337.63	-1,668.10	-2,255.93	-3,050.92	-4,126.07
WACC
PV UFCF						-1,388.31	-1,796.87	-2,522.15	-3,540.17	-4,969.10
SUM PV UFCF										-14,216.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	-3.65
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-4,208.59
Terminal Value	74,488.26
Present Value of Terminal Value	89,707.59

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	75,491
Net Debt	8,095.99
Equity Value	67,395
Shares Outstanding	-
Equity Value Per Share	Infinity