Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Celestica Inc. (CLS)
$11.34
+0.04 (+0.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 6,142.70 | 6,633.20 | 5,888.30 | 5,748.10 | 5,634.70 | 5,527.66 | 5,422.65 | 5,319.64 | 5,218.59 | 5,119.45 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 198.90 | 146.60 | 185.70 | 252.60 | 294 | 201.36 | 197.54 | 193.78 | 190.10 | 186.49 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 122.40 | 57.50 | 50.30 | 127.90 | 167.70 | 98.56 | 96.69 | 94.85 | 93.05 | 91.28 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 76.50 | 89.10 | 135.40 | 124.70 | 126.30 | 102.80 | 100.85 | 98.93 | 97.06 | 95.21 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 515.20 | 422 | 479.50 | 463.80 | 394 | 419.59 | 411.62 | 403.80 | 396.13 | 388.60 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 766.40 | 1,211.60 | 1,060.40 | 1,100.20 | 1,268.90 | 999.52 | 980.53 | 961.90 | 943.63 | 925.70 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,061.80 | 1,089.90 | 992.20 | 1,091.50 | 1,697 | 1,101.91 | 1,080.98 | 1,060.45 | 1,040.30 | 1,020.54 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 931.10 | 1,126.70 | 898 | 854.50 | 1,238.30 | 931.26 | 913.57 | 896.21 | 879.19 | 862.49 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -102.60 | -82.20 | -80.50 | -52.80 | -52.20 | -67.68 | -66.39 | -65.13 | -63.89 | -62.68 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 11.34 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.319 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 126.70 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 23.60 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.05% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 13.795 |
Total Debt | 794.40 |
Total Equity | 1,436.78 |
Total Capital | 2,231.18 |
Debt Weighting | 35.60 |
Equity Weighting | 64.40 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 6,142.70 | 6,633.20 | 5,888.30 | 5,748.10 | 5,634.70 | 5,527.66 | 5,422.65 | 5,319.64 | 5,218.59 | 5,119.45 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 198.90 | 146.60 | 185.70 | 252.60 | 294 | 201.36 | 197.54 | 193.78 | 190.10 | 186.49 |
EBIT | 122.40 | 57.50 | 50.30 | 127.90 | 167.70 | 98.56 | 96.69 | 94.85 | 93.05 | 91.28 |
Tax Rate | 20.74% | -20.76% | 29.56% | 32.82% | 23.60% | 17.19% | 17.19% | 17.19% | 17.19% | 17.19% |
EBIAT | 97.02 | 69.44 | 35.43 | 85.93 | 128.12 | 81.61 | 80.06 | 78.54 | 77.05 | 75.59 |
Depreciation | 76.50 | 89.10 | 135.40 | 124.70 | 126.30 | 102.80 | 100.85 | 98.93 | 97.06 | 95.21 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -445.20 | 151.20 | -39.80 | -168.70 | 269.38 | 18.99 | 18.63 | 18.27 | 17.93 |
Inventories | - | -28.10 | 97.70 | -99.30 | -605.50 | 595.09 | 20.93 | 20.53 | 20.14 | 19.76 |
Accounts Payable | - | 195.60 | -228.70 | -43.50 | 383.80 | -307.04 | -17.69 | -17.35 | -17.02 | -16.70 |
Capital Expenditure | -102.60 | -82.20 | -80.50 | -52.80 | -52.20 | -67.68 | -66.39 | -65.13 | -63.89 | -62.68 |
UFCF | 70.92 | -201.36 | 110.53 | -24.77 | -188.18 | 674.17 | 136.75 | 134.16 | 131.61 | 129.11 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 613.05 | 113.08 | 100.88 | 89.99 | 80.27 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 997.27 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.97 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 131.69 |
Terminal Value | 1,652.31 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,027.35 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,024.62 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 400.40 |
Equity Value | 1,624.22 |
Shares Outstanding | 126.70 |
Equity Value Per Share | 12.82 |