Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Commercial Metals Company (CMC)

$36.65

+2.25 (+6.54%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 23.70 | 36.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	4,569.68	4,643.72	5,829	5,476.49	6,729.76	7,469.73	8,291.06	9,202.69	10,214.57	11,337.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	227.90	341.27	497.82	599.57	753.53	642.72	713.39	791.84	878.90	975.54
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	102.83	209.61	339.15	433.82	585.92	436.39	484.37	537.63	596.74	662.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	125.07	131.66	158.67	165.76	167.61	206.34	229.03	254.21	282.16	313.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	252.60	622.47	192.46	542.10	497.75	590.54	655.47	727.55	807.54	896.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	706.59	749.48	1,016.09	880.73	1,105.58	1,218.23	1,352.18	1,500.85	1,665.88	1,849.05
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	614.46	589	692.37	625.39	935.39	946.07	1,050.10	1,165.56	1,293.72	1,435.97
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	282.13	261.26	288	266.10	450.72	422.75	469.23	520.82	578.09	641.65
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-213.12	-174.66	-138.84	-187.62	-184.16	-253.51	-281.38	-312.32	-346.67	-384.78
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 36.65
Beta	1.125
Diluted Shares Outstanding	121.98
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.69
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.75%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.436
Total Debt	1,069.78
Total Equity	4,470.70
Total Capital	5,540.48
Debt Weighting	19.31
Equity Weighting	80.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	4,569.68	4,643.72	5,829	5,476.49	6,729.76	7,469.73	8,291.06	9,202.69	10,214.57	11,337.71
EBITDA	227.90	341.27	497.82	599.57	753.53	642.72	713.39	791.84	878.90	975.54
EBIT	102.83	209.61	339.15	433.82	585.92	436.39	484.37	537.63	596.74	662.36
Tax Rate	-2.95%	16.25%	26.21%	24.62%	22.69%	17.36%	17.36%	17.36%	17.36%	17.36%
EBIAT	105.87	175.54	250.25	327.02	452.99	360.61	400.27	444.28	493.13	547.35
Depreciation	125.07	131.66	158.67	165.76	167.61	206.34	229.03	254.21	282.16	313.18
Accounts Receivable	-	-42.89	-266.60	135.36	-224.85	-112.65	-133.95	-148.68	-165.03	-183.17
Inventories	-	25.45	-103.36	66.97	-309.99	-10.69	-104.02	-115.46	-128.16	-142.25
Accounts Payable	-	-20.87	26.75	-21.90	184.62	-27.98	46.48	51.59	57.27	63.56
Capital Expenditure	-213.12	-174.66	-138.84	-187.62	-184.16	-253.51	-281.38	-312.32	-346.67	-384.78
UFCF	17.82	94.24	-73.13	485.59	86.22	162.13	156.42	173.61	192.70	213.89
WACC
PV UFCF						150.78	135.28	139.64	144.14	148.78
SUM PV UFCF										718.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.53
Free cash flow (t + 1)	218.17
Terminal Value	3,945.22
Present Value of Terminal Value	2,744.25

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	3,462.86
Net Debt	572.04
Equity Value	2,890.82
Shares Outstanding	121.98
Equity Value Per Share	23.70