Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Commercial Metals Company (CMC)

$36.65

+2.25 (+6.54%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 23.70 | 36.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,569.684,643.725,8295,476.496,729.767,469.738,291.069,202.6910,214.5711,337.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 227.90341.27497.82599.57753.53642.72713.39791.84878.90975.54
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 102.83209.61339.15433.82585.92436.39484.37537.63596.74662.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 125.07131.66158.67165.76167.61206.34229.03254.21282.16313.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 252.60622.47192.46542.10497.75590.54655.47727.55807.54896.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 706.59749.481,016.09880.731,105.581,218.231,352.181,500.851,665.881,849.05
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 614.46589692.37625.39935.39946.071,050.101,165.561,293.721,435.97
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 282.13261.26288266.10450.72422.75469.23520.82578.09641.65
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -213.12-174.66-138.84-187.62-184.16-253.51-281.38-312.32-346.67-384.78
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 36.65
Beta 1.125
Diluted Shares Outstanding 121.98
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.69
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.75%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.436
Total Debt 1,069.78
Total Equity 4,470.70
Total Capital 5,540.48
Debt Weighting 19.31
Equity Weighting 80.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,569.684,643.725,8295,476.496,729.767,469.738,291.069,202.6910,214.5711,337.71
EBITDA 227.90341.27497.82599.57753.53642.72713.39791.84878.90975.54
EBIT 102.83209.61339.15433.82585.92436.39484.37537.63596.74662.36
Tax Rate -2.95%16.25%26.21%24.62%22.69%17.36%17.36%17.36%17.36%17.36%
EBIAT 105.87175.54250.25327.02452.99360.61400.27444.28493.13547.35
Depreciation 125.07131.66158.67165.76167.61206.34229.03254.21282.16313.18
Accounts Receivable --42.89-266.60135.36-224.85-112.65-133.95-148.68-165.03-183.17
Inventories -25.45-103.3666.97-309.99-10.69-104.02-115.46-128.16-142.25
Accounts Payable --20.8726.75-21.90184.62-27.9846.4851.5957.2763.56
Capital Expenditure -213.12-174.66-138.84-187.62-184.16-253.51-281.38-312.32-346.67-384.78
UFCF 17.8294.24-73.13485.5986.22162.13156.42173.61192.70213.89
WACC
PV UFCF 150.78135.28139.64144.14148.78
SUM PV UFCF 718.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.53
Free cash flow (t + 1) 218.17
Terminal Value 3,945.22
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,744.25

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,462.86
Net Debt 572.04
Equity Value 2,890.82
Shares Outstanding 121.98
Equity Value Per Share 23.70