Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL)

$9.73

-0.19 (-1.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -30.52 | 9.73 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 68.4075.83100121.33142.08170.92205.60247.32297.51357.89
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 25.463145.6450.6556.7370.2284.47101.61122.23147.03
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 21.3926.5741.0142.6046.5959.9072.0586.67104.26125.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.074.434.638.0510.1410.3212.4214.9417.9721.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 11.199.3819.0917.154.7422.3226.8532.3038.8546.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 6.394.923.948.049.1411.2213.5016.2419.5423.50
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 9.4311.0916.8020.8118.3325.7330.9537.2344.7853.87
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.512.821.902.503.504.725.686.848.229.89
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -20.19-20.02-27.84-37.83-44.09-49.90-60.03-72.21-86.86-104.49
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9.73
Beta 0.679
Diluted Shares Outstanding 12.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 54.83
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.34%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.552
Total Debt 12.66
Total Equity 124.91
Total Capital 137.56
Debt Weighting 9.20
Equity Weighting 90.80
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 68.4075.83100121.33142.08170.92205.60247.32297.51357.89
EBITDA 25.463145.6450.6556.7370.2284.47101.61122.23147.03
EBIT 21.3926.5741.0142.6046.5959.9072.0586.67104.26125.42
Tax Rate 49.22%30.77%48.60%51.56%54.83%47.00%47.00%47.00%47.00%47.00%
EBIAT 10.8618.3921.0820.6321.0431.7538.1945.9455.2666.48
Depreciation 4.074.434.638.0510.1410.3212.4214.9417.9721.61
Accounts Receivable -1.470.98-4.10-1.10-2.08-2.28-2.74-3.30-3.96
Inventories --1.67-5.71-4.012.48-7.39-5.22-6.28-7.56-9.09
Accounts Payable -0.32-0.930.6111.220.961.151.391.67
Capital Expenditure -20.19-20.02-27.84-37.83-44.09-49.90-60.03-72.21-86.86-104.49
UFCF -5.262.92-7.78-16.66-10.54-16.08-15.96-19.20-23.10-27.78
WACC
PV UFCF -15.02-13.92-15.64-17.57-19.74
SUM PV UFCF -81.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.07
Free cash flow (t + 1) -27.92
Terminal Value -424.98
Present Value of Terminal Value -302.02

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -383.92
Net Debt 7.92
Equity Value -391.84
Shares Outstanding 12.84
Equity Value Per Share -30.52