Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Columbus McKinnon Corporation (CMCO)
$34.95
+0.29 (+0.84%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 876.28 | 809.16 | 649.64 | 906.55 | 936.24 | 972.40 | 1,009.95 | 1,048.95 | 1,089.46 | 1,131.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 128.51 | 118.29 | 49.56 | 116.83 | 141.86 | 126.32 | 131.19 | 136.26 | 141.52 | 146.99 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 95.83 | 89.16 | 21.40 | 74.90 | 99.91 | 85.93 | 89.25 | 92.69 | 96.27 | 99.99 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 32.67 | 29.13 | 28.15 | 41.92 | 41.95 | 40.39 | 41.95 | 43.57 | 45.25 | 47 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 71.09 | 114.45 | 202.13 | 115.39 | 133.18 | 156.21 | 162.25 | 168.51 | 175.02 | 181.78 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 129.16 | 123.74 | 105.46 | 147.52 | 151.45 | 153.08 | 159 | 165.14 | 171.51 | 178.14 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 146.26 | 127.37 | 111.49 | 172.14 | 179.36 | 170.64 | 177.23 | 184.07 | 191.18 | 198.56 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 46.97 | 57.29 | 68.59 | 90.88 | 76.74 | 80.16 | 83.26 | 86.48 | 89.82 | 93.28 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -12.29 | -9.43 | -12.30 | -13.10 | -12.63 | -14.11 | -14.66 | -15.22 | -15.81 | -16.42 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 34.95 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.290 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 28.82 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 34.97 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.45% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.308 |
| Total Debt | 526.08 |
| Total Equity | 1,007.19 |
| Total Capital | 1,533.27 |
| Debt Weighting | 34.31 |
| Equity Weighting | 65.69 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 876.28 | 809.16 | 649.64 | 906.55 | 936.24 | 972.40 | 1,009.95 | 1,048.95 | 1,089.46 | 1,131.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 128.51 | 118.29 | 49.56 | 116.83 | 141.86 | 126.32 | 131.19 | 136.26 | 141.52 | 146.99 |
| EBIT | 95.83 | 89.16 | 21.40 | 74.90 | 99.91 | 85.93 | 89.25 | 92.69 | 96.27 | 99.99 |
| Tax Rate | 19.51% | 22.66% | 9.63% | 22.85% | 34.97% | 21.92% | 21.92% | 21.92% | 21.92% | 21.92% |
| EBIAT | 77.13 | 68.96 | 19.34 | 57.79 | 64.97 | 67.09 | 69.68 | 72.37 | 75.17 | 78.07 |
| Depreciation | 32.67 | 29.13 | 28.15 | 41.92 | 41.95 | 40.39 | 41.95 | 43.57 | 45.25 | 47 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 5.41 | 18.28 | -42.05 | -3.94 | -1.63 | -5.91 | -6.14 | -6.38 | -6.62 |
| Inventories | - | 18.89 | 15.88 | -60.65 | -7.22 | 8.72 | -6.59 | -6.84 | -7.11 | -7.38 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 10.32 | 11.30 | 22.29 | -14.14 | 3.43 | 3.10 | 3.22 | 3.34 | 3.47 |
| Capital Expenditure | -12.29 | -9.43 | -12.30 | -13.10 | -12.63 | -14.11 | -14.66 | -15.22 | -15.81 | -16.42 |
| UFCF | 97.52 | 123.27 | 80.67 | 6.19 | 68.98 | 103.88 | 87.56 | 90.95 | 94.46 | 98.11 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 96.22 | 75.13 | 72.28 | 69.53 | 66.89 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 380.06 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.96 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 100.07 |
| Terminal Value | 1,679 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,144.82 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,524.87 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 392.91 |
| Equity Value | 1,131.97 |
| Shares Outstanding | 28.82 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 39.28 |