Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CME Group Inc. (CME)

$219.45

+0.01 (+0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -115.67 | 219.45 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 4,8684,883.604,689.705,019.405,578.905,781.515,991.486,209.086,434.586,668.27
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,746.402,790.602,7933,150.803,788.303,512.763,640.333,772.543,909.554,051.54
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,273.102,326.202,407.602,788.203,435.703,038.743,149.103,263.473,381.993,504.82
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 473.30464.40385.40362.60352.60474.02491.23509.07527.56546.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 1,634.601,734.102,949.902,816.103,028.902,802.712,904.493,009.983,119.293,232.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 491.80461.30434.50483.20535.60555.50575.67596.58618.24640.70
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 37,081.3086,786.50157,954.40135,254.10119,968.34124,325.31128,840.52133,519.72138,368.84143,394.08
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 61.9069.3048.80121.4085.7788.8992.1295.4698.93102.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -245.60-197.50-127.20-89.70-189.53-196.41-203.54-210.93-218.59-226.53
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 219.45
Beta 0.484
Diluted Shares Outstanding 359.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.31
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.57%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.606
Total Debt 3,425.40
Total Equity 78,892.27
Total Capital 82,317.68
Debt Weighting 4.16
Equity Weighting 95.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 4,8684,883.604,689.705,019.405,578.905,781.515,991.486,209.086,434.586,668.27
EBITDA 2,746.402,790.602,7933,150.803,788.303,512.763,640.333,772.543,909.554,051.54
EBIT 2,273.102,326.202,407.602,788.203,435.703,038.743,149.103,263.473,381.993,504.82
Tax Rate 21.31%22.66%21.85%22.90%23.31%22.41%22.41%22.41%22.41%22.41%
EBIAT 1,788.751,799.021,881.492,149.692,635.012,357.892,443.522,532.272,624.232,719.54
Depreciation 473.30464.40385.40362.60352.60474.02491.23509.07527.56546.72
Accounts Receivable -30.5026.80-48.70-52.40-19.90-20.17-20.91-21.67-22.45
Inventories --49,705.20-71,167.9022,700.3015,285.76-4,356.97-4,515.21-4,679.19-4,849.13-5,025.24
Accounts Payable -7.40-20.5072.60-35.633.123.233.353.473.59
Capital Expenditure -245.60-197.50-127.20-89.70-189.53-196.41-203.54-210.93-218.59-226.53
UFCF 2,016.45-47,601.38-69,021.9125,146.7917,995.81-1,738.26-1,800.94-1,866.35-1,934.13-2,004.37
WACC
PV UFCF -1,632.47-1,588.41-1,545.92-1,504.57-1,464.33
SUM PV UFCF -7,735.71

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.48
Free cash flow (t + 1) -2,044.46
Terminal Value -45,635.26
Present Value of Terminal Value -33,339.59

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -41,075.30
Net Debt 508.20
Equity Value -41,583.50
Shares Outstanding 359.50
Equity Value Per Share -115.67