Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CME Group Inc. (CME)

$199.93

+3.02 (+1.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 376.70 | 199.93 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,644.704,309.404,8684,883.604,689.705,012.705,357.955,726.986,121.426,543.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,851.803,182.703,341.603,351.503,925.403,740.223,997.834,273.184,567.494,882.07
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,643.302,9342,868.302,887.103,5403,349.813,580.533,827.144,090.734,372.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 208.50248.70473.30464.40385.40390.41417.30446.04476.76509.59
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,993.701,447.401,634.601,734.102,949.902,208.372,360.472,523.042,696.822,882.56
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 359.70553.30491.80461.30434.50516.53552.11590.13630.78674.22
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 31.3011661.9069.3048.807378.0383.4089.1595.29
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -81.90-116.70-245.60-197.50-127.20-167.99-179.56-191.93-205.15-219.28
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 199.93
Beta 0.470
Diluted Shares Outstanding 358.52
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.78%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.962
Total Debt 3,445.10
Total Equity 71,679.70
Total Capital 75,124.80
Debt Weighting 4.59
Equity Weighting 95.41
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,644.704,309.404,8684,883.604,689.705,012.705,357.955,726.986,121.426,543.03
EBITDA 2,851.803,182.703,341.603,351.503,925.403,740.223,997.834,273.184,567.494,882.07
EBIT 2,643.302,9342,868.302,887.103,5403,349.813,580.533,827.144,090.734,372.48
Tax Rate -60.84%29.36%21.31%22.66%21.85%6.87%6.87%6.87%6.87%6.87%
EBIAT 4,251.592,072.542,257.122,232.812,766.443,119.753,334.623,564.293,809.784,072.18
Depreciation 208.50248.70473.30464.40385.40390.41417.30446.04476.76509.59
Accounts Receivable --193.6061.5030.5026.80-82.03-35.58-38.03-40.65-43.44
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -84.70-54.107.40-20.5024.205.035.375.746.14
Capital Expenditure -81.90-116.70-245.60-197.50-127.20-167.99-179.56-191.93-205.15-219.28
UFCF 4,378.192,095.642,492.222,537.613,030.943,284.333,541.803,785.744,046.494,325.19
WACC
PV UFCF 3,130.623,218.033,278.693,340.493,403.46
SUM PV UFCF 16,371.29

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.91
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4,411.69
Terminal Value 151,604.42
Present Value of Terminal Value 119,296.43

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 135,667.72
Net Debt 610.20
Equity Value 135,057.52
Shares Outstanding 358.52
Equity Value Per Share 376.70