Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)
$57.81
+0.48 (+0.84%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 6,873 | 6,845 | 6,680 | 7,329 | 8,596 | 9,115.74 | 9,666.90 | 10,251.39 | 10,871.22 | 11,528.52 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,232 | 1,348 | 1,446 | 1,323 | 1,421 | 1,710.98 | 1,814.43 | 1,924.14 | 2,040.48 | 2,163.85 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 299 | 356 | 398 | 209 | 295 | 397.32 | 421.34 | 446.81 | 473.83 | 502.48 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 933 | 992 | 1,048 | 1,114 | 1,126 | 1,313.67 | 1,393.09 | 1,477.32 | 1,566.65 | 1,661.37 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 153 | 140 | 168 | 452 | 164 | 270.95 | 287.33 | 304.70 | 323.13 | 342.66 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,227 | 1,126 | 1,157 | 943 | 1,580 | 1,510.84 | 1,602.19 | 1,699.07 | 1,801.80 | 1,910.74 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 650 | 605 | 576 | 667 | 1,117 | 893.60 | 947.62 | 1,004.92 | 1,065.68 | 1,130.12 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 733 | 635 | 678 | 886 | 928 | 965.83 | 1,024.23 | 1,086.16 | 1,151.83 | 1,221.47 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -2,220 | -2,236 | -2,448 | -2,209 | -2,481 | -2,928.27 | -3,105.32 | -3,293.07 | -3,492.18 | -3,703.33 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 57.81 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.392 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 289.50 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 7.21 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.06% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.223 |
Total Debt | 15,428 |
Total Equity | 16,735.99 |
Total Capital | 32,163.99 |
Debt Weighting | 47.97 |
Equity Weighting | 52.03 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 6,873 | 6,845 | 6,680 | 7,329 | 8,596 | 9,115.74 | 9,666.90 | 10,251.39 | 10,871.22 | 11,528.52 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,232 | 1,348 | 1,446 | 1,323 | 1,421 | 1,710.98 | 1,814.43 | 1,924.14 | 2,040.48 | 2,163.85 |
EBIT | 299 | 356 | 398 | 209 | 295 | 397.32 | 421.34 | 446.81 | 473.83 | 502.48 |
Tax Rate | 15.12% | 17.97% | 14.69% | 11.54% | 7.21% | 13.31% | 13.31% | 13.31% | 13.31% | 13.31% |
EBIAT | 253.80 | 292.01 | 339.54 | 184.87 | 273.74 | 344.45 | 365.28 | 387.36 | 410.78 | 435.62 |
Depreciation | 933 | 992 | 1,048 | 1,114 | 1,126 | 1,313.67 | 1,393.09 | 1,477.32 | 1,566.65 | 1,661.37 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 101 | -31 | 214 | -637 | 69.16 | -91.35 | -96.87 | -102.73 | -108.94 |
Inventories | - | 45 | 29 | -91 | -450 | 223.40 | -54.03 | -57.30 | -60.76 | -64.43 |
Accounts Payable | - | -98 | 43 | 208 | 42 | 37.83 | 58.40 | 61.93 | 65.67 | 69.64 |
Capital Expenditure | -2,220 | -2,236 | -2,448 | -2,209 | -2,481 | -2,928.27 | -3,105.32 | -3,293.07 | -3,492.18 | -3,703.33 |
UFCF | -1,033.20 | -903.99 | -1,019.46 | -579.13 | -2,126.26 | -939.76 | -1,433.93 | -1,520.63 | -1,612.57 | -1,710.07 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -893.48 | -1,296.17 | -1,306.84 | -1,317.61 | -1,328.46 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -6,142.56 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.18 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,744.27 |
Terminal Value | -54,851.37 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -42,610.99 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -48,753.55 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 15,264 |
Equity Value | -64,017.55 |
Shares Outstanding | 289.50 |
Equity Value Per Share | -221.13 |