Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)

$57.81

+0.48 (+0.84%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -221.13 | 57.81 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,8736,8456,6807,3298,5969,115.749,666.9010,251.3910,871.2211,528.52
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,2321,3481,4461,3231,4211,710.981,814.431,924.142,040.482,163.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 299356398209295397.32421.34446.81473.83502.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 9339921,0481,1141,1261,313.671,393.091,477.321,566.651,661.37
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 153140168452164270.95287.33304.70323.13342.66
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,2271,1261,1579431,5801,510.841,602.191,699.071,801.801,910.74
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6506055766671,117893.60947.621,004.921,065.681,130.12
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 733635678886928965.831,024.231,086.161,151.831,221.47
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,220-2,236-2,448-2,209-2,481-2,928.27-3,105.32-3,293.07-3,492.18-3,703.33
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 57.81
Beta 0.392
Diluted Shares Outstanding 289.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 7.21
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.06%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.223
Total Debt 15,428
Total Equity 16,735.99
Total Capital 32,163.99
Debt Weighting 47.97
Equity Weighting 52.03
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,8736,8456,6807,3298,5969,115.749,666.9010,251.3910,871.2211,528.52
EBITDA 1,2321,3481,4461,3231,4211,710.981,814.431,924.142,040.482,163.85
EBIT 299356398209295397.32421.34446.81473.83502.48
Tax Rate 15.12%17.97%14.69%11.54%7.21%13.31%13.31%13.31%13.31%13.31%
EBIAT 253.80292.01339.54184.87273.74344.45365.28387.36410.78435.62
Depreciation 9339921,0481,1141,1261,313.671,393.091,477.321,566.651,661.37
Accounts Receivable -101-31214-63769.16-91.35-96.87-102.73-108.94
Inventories -4529-91-450223.40-54.03-57.30-60.76-64.43
Accounts Payable --98432084237.8358.4061.9365.6769.64
Capital Expenditure -2,220-2,236-2,448-2,209-2,481-2,928.27-3,105.32-3,293.07-3,492.18-3,703.33
UFCF -1,033.20-903.99-1,019.46-579.13-2,126.26-939.76-1,433.93-1,520.63-1,612.57-1,710.07
WACC
PV UFCF -893.48-1,296.17-1,306.84-1,317.61-1,328.46
SUM PV UFCF -6,142.56

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.18
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,744.27
Terminal Value -54,851.37
Present Value of Terminal Value -42,610.99

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -48,753.55
Net Debt 15,264
Equity Value -64,017.55
Shares Outstanding 289.50
Equity Value Per Share -221.13