Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)

$54.05

+0.05 (+0.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -250.13 | 54.05 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,8736,8456,6807,3298,5969,115.749,666.9010,251.3910,871.2211,528.52
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,2321,3481,4461,3231,4211,710.981,814.431,924.142,040.482,163.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 299356398209295397.32421.34446.81473.83502.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 9339921,0481,1141,1261,313.671,393.091,477.321,566.651,661.37
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 153140168452164270.95287.33304.70323.13342.66
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,2271,1261,1579431,5801,510.841,602.191,699.071,801.801,910.74
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6506055766671,117893.60947.621,004.921,065.681,130.12
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 733635678886928965.831,024.231,086.161,151.831,221.47
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,220-2,236-2,448-2,209-2,481-2,928.27-3,105.32-3,293.07-3,492.18-3,703.33
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 54.05
Beta 0.369
Diluted Shares Outstanding 289.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 7.21
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.12%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.297
Total Debt 15,428
Total Equity 15,647.48
Total Capital 31,075.47
Debt Weighting 49.65
Equity Weighting 50.35
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,8736,8456,6807,3298,5969,115.749,666.9010,251.3910,871.2211,528.52
EBITDA 1,2321,3481,4461,3231,4211,710.981,814.431,924.142,040.482,163.85
EBIT 299356398209295397.32421.34446.81473.83502.48
Tax Rate 15.12%17.97%14.69%11.54%7.21%13.31%13.31%13.31%13.31%13.31%
EBIAT 253.80292.01339.54184.87273.74344.45365.28387.36410.78435.62
Depreciation 9339921,0481,1141,1261,313.671,393.091,477.321,566.651,661.37
Accounts Receivable -101-31214-63769.16-91.35-96.87-102.73-108.94
Inventories -4529-91-450223.40-54.03-57.30-60.76-64.43
Accounts Payable --98432084237.8358.4061.9365.6769.64
Capital Expenditure -2,220-2,236-2,448-2,209-2,481-2,928.27-3,105.32-3,293.07-3,492.18-3,703.33
UFCF -1,033.20-903.99-1,019.46-579.13-2,126.26-939.76-1,433.93-1,520.63-1,612.57-1,710.07
WACC
PV UFCF -897.40-1,307.58-1,324.14-1,340.91-1,357.90
SUM PV UFCF -6,227.93

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.72
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,744.27
Terminal Value -64,127.70
Present Value of Terminal Value -50,921.07

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -57,149
Net Debt 15,264
Equity Value -72,413
Shares Outstanding 289.50
Equity Value Per Share -250.13