Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT)

$13.3

-0.10 (-0.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1.25 | 13.3 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 161.67269.49284.29222.36307.48375.65458.93560.67684.97836.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 14.236.33-1.0622.1322.8521.1625.8531.5838.5847.13
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 7.99-3.05-11.4310.4711.236.127.489.1411.1613.64
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6.249.3810.3811.6611.6215.0418.3722.4427.4233.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 26.781.891.864.136.1516.3619.9924.4229.8336.44
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 20.4651.1735.9430.1636.5452.396478.1995.53116.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 13.4625.7721.6818.3625.1331.5138.5047.0357.4670.20
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 13.8525.4519.9116.9922.7030.0836.7544.9054.8567.01
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.26-5.80-7.46-3.68-11.57-9.64-11.78-14.39-17.58-21.47
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.3
Beta 1.995
Diluted Shares Outstanding 8.06
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 47.63
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.80%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.206
Total Debt 25.19
Total Equity 107.22
Total Capital 132.42
Debt Weighting 19.03
Equity Weighting 80.97
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 161.67269.49284.29222.36307.48375.65458.93560.67684.97836.82
EBITDA 14.236.33-1.0622.1322.8521.1625.8531.5838.5847.13
EBIT 7.99-3.05-11.4310.4711.236.127.489.1411.1613.64
Tax Rate 29.52%12.19%2.28%-79.57%47.63%2.41%2.41%2.41%2.41%2.41%
EBIAT 5.63-2.68-11.1718.805.885.977.308.9210.8913.31
Depreciation 6.249.3810.3811.6611.6215.0418.3722.4427.4233.50
Accounts Receivable --30.7215.235.77-6.37-15.85-11.61-14.19-17.33-21.18
Inventories --12.314.083.32-6.77-6.38-6.99-8.53-10.43-12.74
Accounts Payable -11.60-5.54-2.925.707.396.678.159.9512.16
Capital Expenditure -4.26-5.80-7.46-3.68-11.57-9.64-11.78-14.39-17.58-21.47
UFCF 7.61-30.525.5232.96-1.51-3.481.962.402.933.58
WACC
PV UFCF -3.141.601.761.942.14
SUM PV UFCF 4.31

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.80
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3.65
Terminal Value 41.46
Present Value of Terminal Value 24.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 29.13
Net Debt 19.05
Equity Value 10.08
Shares Outstanding 8.06
Equity Value Per Share 1.25