Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CNO Financial Group, Inc. (CNO)
$21.12
+0.16 (+0.76%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,313.50 | 4,015.80 | 3,821.10 | 4,122.20 | 3,576.80 | 3,423.88 | 3,277.51 | 3,137.39 | 3,003.26 | 2,874.86 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 177.20 | 694.40 | 757 | 982.60 | 963.90 | 629.97 | 603.04 | 577.26 | 552.58 | 528.95 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -115 | 426.50 | 453.10 | 663.10 | 703.25 | 380.46 | 364.20 | 348.63 | 333.72 | 319.45 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 292.20 | 267.90 | 303.90 | 319.50 | 260.65 | 249.51 | 238.84 | 228.63 | 218.86 | 209.50 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 19,041.90 | 21,875.20 | 24,375.50 | 24,905 | 20,929.10 | 19,265.50 | 18,441.86 | 17,653.43 | 16,898.71 | 16,176.26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 5,555.40 | 5,218.30 | 4,783.70 | 4,472.60 | 5,407.20 | 4,407.23 | 4,218.82 | 4,038.45 | 3,865.80 | 3,700.53 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 21.12 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.169 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 129.02 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 23.29 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.71% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.898 |
| Total Debt | 3,882.90 |
| Total Equity | 2,724.86 |
| Total Capital | 6,607.76 |
| Debt Weighting | 58.76 |
| Equity Weighting | 41.24 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,313.50 | 4,015.80 | 3,821.10 | 4,122.20 | 3,576.80 | 3,423.88 | 3,277.51 | 3,137.39 | 3,003.26 | 2,874.86 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 177.20 | 694.40 | 757 | 982.60 | 963.90 | 629.97 | 603.04 | 577.26 | 552.58 | 528.95 |
| EBIT | -115 | 426.50 | 453.10 | 663.10 | 703.25 | 380.46 | 364.20 | 348.63 | 333.72 | 319.45 |
| Tax Rate | -18.96% | -49.31% | 12.34% | 22.32% | 23.29% | -2.06% | -2.06% | -2.06% | -2.06% | -2.06% |
| EBIAT | -136.80 | 636.79 | 397.17 | 515.11 | 539.43 | 388.30 | 371.70 | 355.81 | 340.60 | 326.04 |
| Depreciation | 292.20 | 267.90 | 303.90 | 319.50 | 260.65 | 249.51 | 238.84 | 228.63 | 218.86 | 209.50 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 337.10 | 434.60 | 311.10 | -934.60 | 999.97 | 188.42 | 180.36 | 172.65 | 165.27 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | 1,637.78 | 798.96 | 764.81 | 732.11 | 700.81 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1,555.94 | 721.11 | 655.78 | 596.38 | 542.35 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 4,071.56 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.26 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 714.83 |
| Terminal Value | 21,927.19 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 16,969.38 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 21,040.95 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3,307.20 |
| Equity Value | 17,733.75 |
| Shares Outstanding | 129.02 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 137.45 |