Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Cosmos Health Inc. (COSM)
$6.54
-0.28 (-4.11%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 30.01 | 37.08 | 39.68 | 55.41 | 56.24 | 66.32 | 78.21 | 92.23 | 108.76 | 128.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -4.54 | -2.19 | -0.99 | 4.39 | -12.21 | -4.95 | -5.84 | -6.88 | -8.12 | -9.57 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -4.57 | -2.24 | -1.38 | 3.99 | -12.66 | -5.31 | -6.26 | -7.38 | -8.71 | -10.27 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.36 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 0.78 | 3.58 | 0.28 | 0.85 | 0.29 | 1.99 | 2.35 | 2.77 | 3.27 | 3.86 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1.43 | 4.94 | 9.27 | 26.91 | 26.86 | 18.27 | 21.55 | 25.41 | 29.97 | 35.34 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 3.09 | 3.20 | 3.47 | 3.29 | 3.15 | 5.20 | 6.14 | 7.24 | 8.54 | 10.06 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.78 | 5.93 | 8.56 | 11.97 | 12.13 | 11.50 | 13.56 | 15.99 | 18.85 | 22.23 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.06 | -0.50 | -0.67 | -0.12 | -0.58 | -0.59 | -0.70 | -0.83 | -0.98 | -1.15 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 6.54 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 3.076 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 0.53 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -98.72 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 11.37% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 18.035 |
| Total Debt | 24.83 |
| Total Equity | 3.48 |
| Total Capital | 28.31 |
| Debt Weighting | 87.70 |
| Equity Weighting | 12.30 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 30.01 | 37.08 | 39.68 | 55.41 | 56.24 | 66.32 | 78.21 | 92.23 | 108.76 | 128.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -4.54 | -2.19 | -0.99 | 4.39 | -12.21 | -4.95 | -5.84 | -6.88 | -8.12 | -9.57 |
| EBIT | -4.57 | -2.24 | -1.38 | 3.99 | -12.66 | -5.31 | -6.26 | -7.38 | -8.71 | -10.27 |
| Tax Rate | -0.05% | -0.19% | -5.87% | 31.51% | -98.72% | -14.66% | -14.66% | -14.66% | -14.66% | -14.66% |
| EBIAT | -4.57 | -2.24 | -1.46 | 2.74 | -25.15 | -6.09 | -7.18 | -8.47 | -9.99 | -11.78 |
| Depreciation | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.36 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -3.52 | -4.32 | -17.64 | 0.05 | 8.58 | -3.28 | -3.86 | -4.55 | -5.37 |
| Inventories | - | -0.11 | -0.27 | 0.18 | 0.15 | -2.06 | -0.93 | -1.10 | -1.30 | -1.53 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 4.16 | 2.63 | 3.41 | 0.15 | -0.63 | 2.06 | 2.43 | 2.87 | 3.38 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.06 | -0.50 | -0.67 | -0.12 | -0.58 | -0.59 | -0.70 | -0.83 | -0.98 | -1.15 |
| UFCF | -4.60 | -2.17 | -3.71 | -11.03 | -24.93 | -0.43 | -9.60 | -11.33 | -13.36 | -15.75 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -0.38 | -7.63 | -8.02 | -8.43 | -8.86 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -33.32 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.19 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -16.07 |
| Terminal Value | -157.66 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -88.71 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -122.03 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 24.54 |
| Equity Value | -146.57 |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.53 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -275.35 |