Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Coty Inc. (COTY)

$6.865

+0.34 (+5.29%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -7.30 | 6.865 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 9,3988,648.504,717.804,629.905,304.404,764.424,279.413,843.773,452.483,101.02
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 830.60-2,754.20-434.60443.80966.40-42.07-37.79-33.94-30.49-27.39
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 93.60-3,490.20-1,151.10-141.50450-555.84-499.25-448.43-402.78-361.78
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 737736716.50585.30516.40513.76461.46414.49372.29334.39
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 331.60340.40308.30253.50233.30227.48204.32183.52164.84148.06
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,5361,528.60711690.50364.60675.37606.62544.87489.40439.58
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,148.901,153.30678.20650.80661.50633.31568.84510.94458.92412.21
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,928.601,732.701,190.301,166.101,268.301,094.70983.26883.17793.26712.51
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -446.40-426.60-267.40-173.90-174.10-213.34-191.62-172.11-154.59-138.86
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.865
Beta 1.938
Diluted Shares Outstanding 834.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 85.66
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.68%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.771
Total Debt 4,714.30
Total Equity 5,726.10
Total Capital 10,440.40
Debt Weighting 45.15
Equity Weighting 54.85
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 9,3988,648.504,717.804,629.905,304.404,764.424,279.413,843.773,452.483,101.02
EBITDA 830.60-2,754.20-434.60443.80966.40-42.07-37.79-33.94-30.49-27.39
EBIT 93.60-3,490.20-1,151.10-141.50450-555.84-499.25-448.43-402.78-361.78
Tax Rate -10.69%-0.16%31.41%16.06%85.66%24.45%24.45%24.45%24.45%24.45%
EBIAT 103.60-3,495.84-789.60-118.7864.53-419.91-377.16-338.77-304.28-273.31
Depreciation 737736716.50585.30516.40513.76461.46414.49372.29334.39
Accounts Receivable -7.40817.6020.50325.90-310.7768.7561.7555.4749.82
Inventories --4.40475.1027.40-10.7028.1964.4757.9152.0146.72
Accounts Payable --195.90-542.40-24.20102.20-173.60-111.44-100.09-89.90-80.75
Capital Expenditure -446.40-426.60-267.40-173.90-174.10-213.34-191.62-172.11-154.59-138.86
UFCF 394.20-3,379.34409.80316.32824.23-575.68-85.54-76.83-69.01-61.99
WACC
PV UFCF -536.46-74.28-62.18-52.04-43.56
SUM PV UFCF -768.52

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.31
Free cash flow (t + 1) -63.23
Terminal Value -1,190.69
Present Value of Terminal Value -836.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,605.28
Net Debt 4,481
Equity Value -6,086.28
Shares Outstanding 834.10
Equity Value Per Share -7.30