Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Coty Inc. (COTY)

$7.555

+0.13 (+1.82%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -11.75 | 7.555 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 7,650.309,3988,648.504,717.804,629.904,254.383,909.323,592.253,300.893,033.16
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 93830.60-2,754.20-434.60443.80-182.25-167.47-153.88-141.40-129.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -462.1093.60-3,490.20-1,151.10-141.50-619.91-569.63-523.43-480.98-441.97
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 555.10737736716.50585.30437.67402.17369.55339.58312.03
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 535.40331.60340.40308.30253.50225.25206.98190.19174.77160.59
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,470.301,5361,528.60711690.50708.12650.68597.91549.41504.85
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,052.601,148.901,153.30678.20650.80576.48529.72486.76447.28411
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,732.101,928.601,732.701,190.301,166.10966.71888.30816.25750.05689.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -432.30-446.40-426.60-267.40-173.90-210.65-193.57-177.87-163.44-150.19
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.555
Beta 1.992
Diluted Shares Outstanding 764.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.06
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.37%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.255
Total Debt 5,770.20
Total Equity 5,778.06
Total Capital 11,548.26
Debt Weighting 49.97
Equity Weighting 50.03
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 7,650.309,3988,648.504,717.804,629.904,254.383,909.323,592.253,300.893,033.16
EBITDA 93830.60-2,754.20-434.60443.80-182.25-167.47-153.88-141.40-129.93
EBIT -462.1093.60-3,490.20-1,151.10-141.50-619.91-569.63-523.43-480.98-441.97
Tax Rate 35.84%-10.69%-0.16%31.41%16.06%14.49%14.49%14.49%14.49%14.49%
EBIAT -296.50103.60-3,495.84-789.60-118.78-530.09-487.10-447.59-411.29-377.93
Depreciation 555.10737736716.50585.30437.67402.17369.55339.58312.03
Accounts Receivable --65.707.40817.6020.50-17.6257.4352.7848.4944.56
Inventories --96.30-4.40475.1027.4074.3246.7642.9639.4836.28
Accounts Payable -196.50-195.90-542.40-24.20-199.39-78.41-72.05-66.20-60.83
Capital Expenditure -432.30-446.40-426.60-267.40-173.90-210.65-193.57-177.87-163.44-150.19
UFCF -173.70428.70-3,379.34409.80316.32-445.76-252.72-232.22-213.38-196.08
WACC
PV UFCF -413.43-217.39-185.27-157.89-134.56
SUM PV UFCF -1,108.55

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.82
Free cash flow (t + 1) -200
Terminal Value -3,436.40
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,358.34

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -3,466.89
Net Debt 5,516.70
Equity Value -8,983.59
Shares Outstanding 764.80
Equity Value Per Share -11.75