Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Callon Petroleum Company (CPE)

$30.26

-0.40 (-1.30%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -3,503.92 | 30.26 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	587.62	671.57	1,033.15	2,045.03	3,230.96	5,040.78	7,864.36	12,269.56	19,142.32	29,864.84
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	310.97	106.14	-1,836.61	805.59	1,767.79	-150.59	-234.95	-366.55	-571.88	-892.21
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	310.97	106.14	-2,317.24	-145.78	264.71	-2,495.62	-3,893.53	-6,074.48	-9,477.09	-14,785.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	-	-	480.63	951.37	1,503.08	2,345.02	3,658.58	5,707.93	8,905.21	13,893.44
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	16.05	13.34	20.24	9.88	3.40	73.24	114.27	178.28	278.14	433.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	131.72	209.46	133.11	232.44	237.13	858.89	1,340	2,090.60	3,261.65	5,088.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	261.18	238.76	101.23	151.84	785.31	1,225.19	1,911.48	2,982.19	4,652.66	7,258.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-611.17	-640.54	-677.15	-1,072.22	-992.98	-3,509.32	-5,475.06	-8,541.91	-13,326.63	-20,791.51
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 30.26
Beta	2.711
Diluted Shares Outstanding	61.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.97
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.52%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	16.200
Total Debt	2,241.30
Total Equity	1,873.22
Total Capital	4,114.51
Debt Weighting	54.47
Equity Weighting	45.53
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	587.62	671.57	1,033.15	2,045.03	3,230.96	5,040.78	7,864.36	12,269.56	19,142.32	29,864.84
EBITDA	310.97	106.14	-1,836.61	805.59	1,767.79	-150.59	-234.95	-366.55	-571.88	-892.21
EBIT	310.97	106.14	-2,317.24	-145.78	264.71	-2,495.62	-3,893.53	-6,074.48	-9,477.09	-14,785.66
Tax Rate	2.63%	34.20%	-5.06%	0.05%	0.97%	6.56%	6.56%	6.56%	6.56%	6.56%
EBIAT	302.79	69.84	-2,434.52	-145.71	262.16	-2,332.01	-3,638.28	-5,676.25	-8,855.79	-13,816.33
Depreciation	-	-	480.63	951.37	1,503.08	2,345.02	3,658.58	5,707.93	8,905.21	13,893.44
Accounts Receivable	-	-77.74	76.35	-99.33	-4.69	-621.77	-481.11	-750.60	-1,171.04	-1,827
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-22.43	-137.53	50.60	633.47	439.89	686.29	1,070.71	1,670.47	2,606.18
Capital Expenditure	-611.17	-640.54	-677.15	-1,072.22	-992.99	-3,509.32	-5,475.06	-8,541.91	-13,326.63	-20,791.51
UFCF	-308.38	-670.87	-2,692.21	-315.28	1,401.03	-3,678.19	-5,249.58	-8,190.11	-12,777.78	-19,935.22
WACC
PV UFCF						-3,365.53	-4,395.05	-6,274.06	-8,956.41	-12,785.54
SUM PV UFCF										-35,776.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.29
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-20,333.93
Terminal Value	-278,929.05
Present Value of Terminal Value	-178,892.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-214,668.87
Net Debt	2,237.90
Equity Value	-216,906.77
Shares Outstanding	61.90
Equity Value Per Share	-3,503.92