Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CorePoint Lodging Inc. (CPLG)
$15.96
+0.25 (+1.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 871 | 980.63 | 862 | 812 | 411 | 354.80 | 306.29 | 264.40 | 228.25 | 197.04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 143 | 267.89 | -343 | 42 | 15 | 9.06 | 7.82 | 6.75 | 5.83 | 5.03 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -4 | 118.97 | -503 | -139 | -144 | -70.13 | -60.54 | -52.26 | -45.12 | -38.95 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 147 | 148.92 | 160 | 181 | 159 | 79.19 | 68.36 | 59.02 | 50.95 | 43.98 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 160.60 | 140.85 | 68 | 101 | 143 | 62.39 | 53.86 | 46.49 | 40.14 | 34.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 45.34 | 66.18 | 33 | 33 | 13 | 16.33 | 14.09 | 12.17 | 10.50 | 9.07 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 38.13 | 48.76 | 99 | 82 | 48 | 30.24 | 26.10 | 22.53 | 19.45 | 16.79 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | 71 | 32.62 | 6 | 161 | -24 | 18.56 | 16.03 | 13.83 | 11.94 | 10.31 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 15.96 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.815 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 56.60 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 4.81 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.52% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.123 |
| Total Debt | 1,620 |
| Total Equity | 903.34 |
| Total Capital | 2,523.34 |
| Debt Weighting | 64.20 |
| Equity Weighting | 35.80 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 871 | 980.63 | 862 | 812 | 411 | 354.80 | 306.29 | 264.40 | 228.25 | 197.04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 143 | 267.89 | -343 | 42 | 15 | 9.06 | 7.82 | 6.75 | 5.83 | 5.03 |
| EBIT | -4 | 118.97 | -503 | -139 | -144 | -70.13 | -60.54 | -52.26 | -45.12 | -38.95 |
| Tax Rate | 300.00% | -274.57% | -142.59% | -1.92% | 4.81% | -22.85% | -22.85% | -22.85% | -22.85% | -22.85% |
| EBIAT | 8 | 445.63 | -1,220.24 | -141.67 | -137.07 | -86.16 | -74.38 | -64.21 | -55.43 | -47.85 |
| Depreciation | 147 | 148.92 | 160 | 181 | 159 | 79.19 | 68.36 | 59.02 | 50.95 | 43.98 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -20.85 | 33.18 | 0 | 20 | -3.33 | 2.23 | 1.93 | 1.66 | 1.44 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 10.63 | 50.24 | -17 | -34 | -17.76 | -4.13 | -3.57 | -3.08 | -2.66 |
| Capital Expenditure | 71 | 32.62 | 6 | 161 | -24 | 18.56 | 16.03 | 13.83 | 11.94 | 10.31 |
| UFCF | 226 | 616.95 | -970.81 | 183.33 | -16.07 | -9.49 | 8.11 | 7 | 6.04 | 5.22 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -8.96 | 7.22 | 5.88 | 4.79 | 3.91 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 12.85 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.96 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 5.32 |
| Terminal Value | 134.36 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 100.59 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 113.44 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,477 |
| Equity Value | -1,363.56 |
| Shares Outstanding | 56.60 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -24.09 |