Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. (CPS)

$10.97

+0.39 (+3.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -46.08 | 10.97 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,618.133,629.293,108.402,375.442,330.192,099.921,892.401,705.391,536.861,384.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 390.03265.78299.68-115.06-71.9283.2274.9967.5860.9054.88
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 251.94119.09147.73-269.29-210.93-22.64-20.40-18.39-16.57-14.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 138.09146.70151.95154.23139.01105.8695.4085.9777.4769.82
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 515.95264.98359.54438.44248.01261.35235.52212.25191.27172.37
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 606.61559.71571.33547.69489.18397.38358.11322.72290.83262.09
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 170.20175.57143.44143.74158.08113.36102.1692.0682.9674.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 523.30452.32426.05385.28348.13301.52271.72244.87220.67198.86
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -186.80-218.07-164.47-91.79-96.11-102.69-92.54-83.40-75.16-67.73
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 10.97
Beta 2.840
Diluted Shares Outstanding 17.05
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -11.53
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.29%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.294
Total Debt 1,152.03
Total Equity 186.99
Total Capital 1,339.01
Debt Weighting 86.04
Equity Weighting 13.96
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,618.133,629.293,108.402,375.442,330.192,099.921,892.401,705.391,536.861,384.99
EBITDA 390.03265.78299.68-115.06-71.9283.2274.9967.5860.9054.88
EBIT 251.94119.09147.73-269.29-210.93-22.64-20.40-18.39-16.57-14.93
Tax Rate 36.51%-43.87%31.30%18.96%-11.53%6.27%6.27%6.27%6.27%6.27%
EBIAT 159.96171.33101.48-218.22-235.26-21.22-19.12-17.23-15.53-14
Depreciation 138.09146.70151.95154.23139.01105.8695.4085.9777.4769.82
Accounts Receivable -46.90-11.6223.6458.5191.8039.2735.3931.8928.74
Inventories --5.3832.13-0.30-14.3344.7211.2010.109.108.20
Accounts Payable --70.98-26.26-40.77-37.15-46.62-29.80-26.85-24.20-21.81
Capital Expenditure -186.79-218.07-164.47-91.79-96.11-102.69-92.54-83.40-75.16-67.73
UFCF 111.2670.5083.22-173.22-185.3371.854.413.973.583.22
WACC
PV UFCF 66.723.803.182.662.23
SUM PV UFCF 78.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.69
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3.29
Terminal Value 57.80
Present Value of Terminal Value 39.91

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 118.49
Net Debt 904.02
Equity Value -785.53
Shares Outstanding 17.05
Equity Value Per Share -46.08