Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. (CPSS)
$9.07
-0.22 (-2.37%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 288.31 | 235.27 | 169.82 | 192.57 | 242.18 | 237.91 | 233.72 | 229.59 | 225.54 | 221.57 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 121.16 | 10.24 | 21.90 | 67.42 | 1,618 | 362.76 | 356.36 | 350.07 | 343.90 | 337.83 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 120.17 | 9.16 | 20.12 | 65.75 | 1,616.38 | 361.14 | 354.77 | 348.52 | 342.37 | 336.33 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.99 | 1.08 | 1.78 | 1.68 | 1.62 | 1.61 | 1.58 | 1.56 | 1.53 | 1.50 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 12.79 | 5.30 | 13.47 | 29.93 | 13.49 | 17 | 16.70 | 16.41 | 16.12 | 15.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 821.07 | 1,444.04 | 1,523.73 | 2.27 | 0.65 | 855.18 | 840.10 | 825.28 | 810.72 | 796.42 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 31.69 | 25.86 | 18.67 | 21.17 | 26.62 | 26.15 | 25.69 | 25.24 | 24.79 | 24.36 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.08 | -0.75 | -0.02 | -1.98 | -2.15 | -1.25 | -1.22 | -1.20 | -1.18 | -1.16 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 9.07 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.215 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 26.59 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 26.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 15.027 |
| Total Debt | 2,468.96 |
| Total Equity | 241.16 |
| Total Capital | 2,710.12 |
| Debt Weighting | 91.10 |
| Equity Weighting | 8.90 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 288.31 | 235.27 | 169.82 | 192.57 | 242.18 | 237.91 | 233.72 | 229.59 | 225.54 | 221.57 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 121.16 | 10.24 | 21.90 | 67.42 | 1,618 | 362.76 | 356.36 | 350.07 | 343.90 | 337.83 |
| EBIT | 120.17 | 9.16 | 20.12 | 65.75 | 1,616.38 | 361.14 | 354.77 | 348.52 | 342.37 | 336.33 |
| Tax Rate | 20.54% | 41.00% | -7.74% | 27.72% | 26.00% | 21.50% | 21.50% | 21.50% | 21.50% | 21.50% |
| EBIAT | 95.49 | 5.41 | 21.68 | 47.52 | 1,196.13 | 283.49 | 278.49 | 273.58 | 268.75 | 264.01 |
| Depreciation | 0.99 | 1.08 | 1.78 | 1.68 | 1.62 | 1.61 | 1.58 | 1.56 | 1.53 | 1.50 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -622.97 | -79.69 | 1,521.46 | 1.62 | -854.53 | 15.08 | 14.82 | 14.56 | 14.30 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -5.83 | -7.19 | 2.50 | 5.45 | -0.47 | -0.46 | -0.45 | -0.45 | -0.44 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.08 | -0.75 | -0.02 | -1.98 | -2.15 | -1.25 | -1.22 | -1.20 | -1.18 | -1.16 |
| UFCF | 95.41 | -623.07 | -63.45 | 1,571.18 | 1,202.67 | -571.14 | 293.47 | 288.30 | 283.21 | 278.22 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -550.66 | 272.80 | 258.38 | 244.71 | 231.78 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 457.01 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.72 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 283.78 |
| Terminal Value | 16,498.84 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 13,744.87 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 14,201.88 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,455.47 |
| Equity Value | 11,746.41 |
| Shares Outstanding | 26.59 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 441.78 |