Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. (CPSS)
$12.19
-0.50 (-3.94%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 287.42 | 234.03 | 169.82 | 192.57 | 575 | 813.59 | 1,151.17 | 1,628.83 | 2,304.70 | 3,260.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 121.16 | 120.77 | 123.24 | 142.66 | 1,618 | 849.06 | 1,201.36 | 1,699.85 | 2,405.18 | 3,403.17 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 120.17 | 119.69 | 121.46 | 140.98 | 1,616.38 | 844.17 | 1,194.44 | 1,690.06 | 2,391.32 | 3,383.56 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.99 | 1.08 | 1.78 | 1.68 | 1.62 | 4.89 | 6.92 | 9.79 | 13.86 | 19.61 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 12.79 | 5.29 | 13.47 | 29.93 | 13.49 | 52.93 | 74.89 | 105.97 | 149.93 | 212.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 31.97 | 11.65 | 5.02 | 2.27 | 0.65 | 33.10 | 46.84 | 66.27 | 93.77 | 132.68 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 31.69 | 25.81 | 18.73 | 21.23 | 63.40 | 89.71 | 126.93 | 179.60 | 254.12 | 359.57 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.08 | -0.75 | -0.02 | -1.98 | -2.50 | -3.53 | -5 | -7.07 | -10 | -14.15 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 12.19 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.198 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 25.78 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.38 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.98% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.091 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 314.26 |
| Total Capital | 314.26 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 287.42 | 234.03 | 169.82 | 192.57 | 575 | 813.59 | 1,151.17 | 1,628.83 | 2,304.70 | 3,260.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 121.16 | 120.77 | 123.24 | 142.66 | 1,618 | 849.06 | 1,201.36 | 1,699.85 | 2,405.18 | 3,403.17 |
| EBIT | 120.17 | 119.69 | 121.46 | 140.98 | 1,616.38 | 844.17 | 1,194.44 | 1,690.06 | 2,391.32 | 3,383.56 |
| Tax Rate | 20.54% | 41.00% | -7.74% | 27.72% | 20.38% | 20.38% | 20.38% | 20.38% | 20.38% | 20.38% |
| EBIAT | 95.49 | 70.62 | 130.86 | 101.91 | 1,287.01 | 672.15 | 951.05 | 1,345.67 | 1,904.03 | 2,694.08 |
| Depreciation | 0.99 | 1.08 | 1.78 | 1.68 | 1.62 | 4.89 | 6.92 | 9.79 | 13.86 | 19.61 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 20.32 | 6.63 | 2.75 | 1.62 | -32.45 | -13.74 | -19.43 | -27.50 | -38.91 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -5.89 | -7.08 | 2.51 | 42.17 | 26.31 | 37.22 | 52.67 | 74.52 | 105.44 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.08 | -0.75 | -0.02 | -1.98 | -2.50 | -3.53 | -5 | -7.07 | -10 | -14.15 |
| UFCF | 95.41 | 85.38 | 132.17 | 106.87 | 1,329.92 | 667.36 | 976.46 | 1,381.63 | 1,954.91 | 2,766.08 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 584.94 | 750.17 | 930.35 | 1,153.82 | 1,430.96 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 4,850.24 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 14.09 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,821.40 |
| Terminal Value | 23,336.62 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 12,072.58 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 16,922.82 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -13.49 |
| Equity Value | 16,936.31 |
| Shares Outstanding | 25.78 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 656.96 |