Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. (CPSS)

$12.19

-0.50 (-3.94%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 656.96 | 12.19 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 287.42234.03169.82192.57575813.591,151.171,628.832,304.703,260.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 121.16120.77123.24142.661,618849.061,201.361,699.852,405.183,403.17
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 120.17119.69121.46140.981,616.38844.171,194.441,690.062,391.323,383.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.991.081.781.681.624.896.929.7913.8619.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 12.795.2913.4729.9313.4952.9374.89105.97149.93212.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 31.9711.655.022.270.6533.1046.8466.2793.77132.68
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 31.6925.8118.7321.2363.4089.71126.93179.60254.12359.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.08-0.75-0.02-1.98-2.50-3.53-5-7.07-10-14.15
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 12.19
Beta 2.198
Diluted Shares Outstanding 25.78
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.38
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.98%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.091
Total Debt -
Total Equity 314.26
Total Capital 314.26
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 287.42234.03169.82192.57575813.591,151.171,628.832,304.703,260.99
EBITDA 121.16120.77123.24142.661,618849.061,201.361,699.852,405.183,403.17
EBIT 120.17119.69121.46140.981,616.38844.171,194.441,690.062,391.323,383.56
Tax Rate 20.54%41.00%-7.74%27.72%20.38%20.38%20.38%20.38%20.38%20.38%
EBIAT 95.4970.62130.86101.911,287.01672.15951.051,345.671,904.032,694.08
Depreciation 0.991.081.781.681.624.896.929.7913.8619.61
Accounts Receivable -20.326.632.751.62-32.45-13.74-19.43-27.50-38.91
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --5.89-7.082.5142.1726.3137.2252.6774.52105.44
Capital Expenditure -1.08-0.75-0.02-1.98-2.50-3.53-5-7.07-10-14.15
UFCF 95.4185.38132.17106.871,329.92667.36976.461,381.631,954.912,766.08
WACC
PV UFCF 584.94750.17930.351,153.821,430.96
SUM PV UFCF 4,850.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.09
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,821.40
Terminal Value 23,336.62
Present Value of Terminal Value 12,072.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 16,922.82
Net Debt -13.49
Equity Value 16,936.31
Shares Outstanding 25.78
Equity Value Per Share 656.96