Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. (CPSS)

$9.07

-0.22 (-2.37%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 441.78 | 9.07 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 288.31235.27169.82192.57242.18237.91233.72229.59225.54221.57
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 121.1610.2421.9067.421,618362.76356.36350.07343.90337.83
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 120.179.1620.1265.751,616.38361.14354.77348.52342.37336.33
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.991.081.781.681.621.611.581.561.531.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 12.795.3013.4729.9313.491716.7016.4116.1215.83
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 821.071,444.041,523.732.270.65855.18840.10825.28810.72796.42
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 31.6925.8618.6721.1726.6226.1525.6925.2424.7924.36
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.08-0.75-0.02-1.98-2.15-1.25-1.22-1.20-1.18-1.16
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9.07
Beta 2.215
Diluted Shares Outstanding 26.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.62%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.027
Total Debt 2,468.96
Total Equity 241.16
Total Capital 2,710.12
Debt Weighting 91.10
Equity Weighting 8.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 288.31235.27169.82192.57242.18237.91233.72229.59225.54221.57
EBITDA 121.1610.2421.9067.421,618362.76356.36350.07343.90337.83
EBIT 120.179.1620.1265.751,616.38361.14354.77348.52342.37336.33
Tax Rate 20.54%41.00%-7.74%27.72%26.00%21.50%21.50%21.50%21.50%21.50%
EBIAT 95.495.4121.6847.521,196.13283.49278.49273.58268.75264.01
Depreciation 0.991.081.781.681.621.611.581.561.531.50
Accounts Receivable --622.97-79.691,521.461.62-854.5315.0814.8214.5614.30
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --5.83-7.192.505.45-0.47-0.46-0.45-0.45-0.44
Capital Expenditure -1.08-0.75-0.02-1.98-2.15-1.25-1.22-1.20-1.18-1.16
UFCF 95.41-623.07-63.451,571.181,202.67-571.14293.47288.30283.21278.22
WACC
PV UFCF -550.66272.80258.38244.71231.78
SUM PV UFCF 457.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.72
Free cash flow (t + 1) 283.78
Terminal Value 16,498.84
Present Value of Terminal Value 13,744.87

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 14,201.88
Net Debt 2,455.47
Equity Value 11,746.41
Shares Outstanding 26.59
Equity Value Per Share 441.78