Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Carter's, Inc. (CRI)

$74.03

-0.11 (-0.15%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 128.61 | 74.03 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,400.503,462.273,519.293,580.233,642.223,705.293,769.453,834.723,901.123,968.674,037.39
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 505.57480.20461.52499.45508.10516.90525.85534.96544.22553.64563.23
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 421.16390.54365.57406.39413.43420.58427.87435.28442.81450.48458.28
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 84.4189.6595.9593.0794.6896.3297.9899.68101.41103.16104.95
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 178.49170.08214.31193.94197.30200.71204.19207.73211.32214.98218.70
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 240.56258.26251.01258.56263.04267.59272.23276.94281.74286.61291.58
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 548.72574.23593.99591.93602.18612.61623.21634644.98656.15667.51
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 182.11199.08183.64194.81198.18201.61205.10208.65212.27215.94219.68
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -69.47-63.78-61.42-67.19-68.36-69.54-70.75-71.97-73.22-74.48-75.77
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 74.03
Beta 1.309
Diluted Shares Outstanding 43.42
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.48
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.95%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.004
Total Debt 1,580.77
Total Equity 3,214.09
Total Capital 4,794.86
Debt Weighting 32.97
Equity Weighting 67.03
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,400.503,462.273,519.293,580.233,642.223,705.293,769.453,834.723,901.123,968.674,037.39
EBITDA 505.57480.20461.52499.45508.10516.90525.85534.96544.22553.64563.23
EBIT 421.16390.54365.57406.39413.43420.58427.87435.28442.81450.48458.28
Tax Rate 22.56%20.76%19.56%20.82%18.72%22.48%20.82%20.82%20.82%20.82%20.82%
EBIAT 326.15309.46294.06321.79336.04326.02338.80344.67350.63356.71362.88
Depreciation 84.4189.6595.9593.0794.6896.3297.9899.68101.41103.16104.95
Accounts Receivable --17.707.25-7.56-4.48-4.55-4.63-4.71-4.80-4.88-4.96
Inventories --25.50-19.762.06-10.25-10.43-10.61-10.79-10.98-11.17-11.36
Accounts Payable -16.96-15.4411.173.373.433.493.553.613.683.74
Capital Expenditure -69.47-63.78-61.42-67.19-32.87-37.44-70.75-71.97-73.22-74.48-75.77
UFCF 341.09309.09300.65353.33351341.25354.29360.42366.66373.01379.47
WACC
PV UFCF 380.47351316.91305.55288.67272.73257.66243.43
SUM PV UFCF 1,473.10

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) 387.06
Terminal Value 6,814.45
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,707.12

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 6,180.23
Net Debt 596.47
Equity Value 5,583.75
Shares Outstanding 43.42
Equity Value Per Share 128.61