Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (CRNX)
$21.85
+0.02 (+0.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2.43 | 1.19 | 0.59 | 0.29 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -26.64 | -49.54 | -71.87 | -106.56 | -158.62 | -23.17 | -11.38 | -5.59 | -2.75 | -1.35 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -27.12 | -50.42 | -72.82 | -107.48 | -159.60 | -23.34 | -11.47 | -5.64 | -2.77 | -1.36 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.47 | 0.89 | 0.95 | 0.92 | 0.98 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 163.88 | 118.39 | 170.88 | 333.71 | 334.43 | 55.35 | 27.20 | 13.36 | 6.57 | 3.23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1.58 | 1.38 | 1.83 | 2.03 | 2.43 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.46 | 5.50 | 5.59 | 8.47 | 6.88 | 1.29 | 0.63 | 0.31 | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.06 | -0.49 | -0.19 | -0.44 | -1.66 | -0.20 | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 21.85 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.941 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 0.05 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 213.29% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.049 |
| Total Debt | 2.02 |
| Total Equity | 1.14 |
| Total Capital | 3.16 |
| Debt Weighting | 64.05 |
| Equity Weighting | 35.95 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2.43 | 1.19 | 0.59 | 0.29 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -26.64 | -49.54 | -71.87 | -106.56 | -158.62 | -23.17 | -11.38 | -5.59 | -2.75 | -1.35 |
| EBIT | -27.12 | -50.42 | -72.82 | -107.48 | -159.60 | -23.34 | -11.47 | -5.64 | -2.77 | -1.36 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| EBIAT | -27.12 | -50.42 | -72.82 | -107.48 | -159.60 | -23.34 | -11.47 | -5.64 | -2.77 | -1.36 |
| Depreciation | 0.47 | 0.89 | 0.95 | 0.92 | 0.98 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.21 | -0.46 | -0.20 | -0.40 | 2.02 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 4.04 | 0.09 | 2.88 | -1.58 | -5.59 | -0.66 | -0.32 | -0.16 | -0.08 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.06 | -0.49 | -0.19 | -0.44 | -1.66 | -0.20 | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| UFCF | -27.70 | -45.78 | -72.42 | -104.31 | -162.25 | -26.94 | -11.93 | -5.86 | -2.88 | -1.42 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -415.50 | -249.85 | -162.25 | -11.25 | -2.08 | -0.43 | -0.09 | -0.02 | ||
| SUM PV UFCF | -13.86 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 139.52 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1.44 |
| Terminal Value | -1.05 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -0.01 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -13.87 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -30.65 |
| Equity Value | 16.77 |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.05 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 322.71 |