Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Ceres Global Ag Corp. (CRP.TO)
$2.51
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 411.12 | 438.40 | 581.71 | 748.20 | 1,060.94 | 1,352.02 | 1,722.96 | 2,195.68 | 2,798.09 | 3,565.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 7.08 | -4.47 | 15.93 | 13.54 | 8.39 | 16.33 | 20.82 | 26.53 | 33.81 | 43.08 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 2.13 | -13 | 9.56 | 6.58 | 1.16 | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.81 | 1.03 | 1.31 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 4.95 | 8.54 | 6.37 | 6.96 | 7.22 | 15.84 | 20.18 | 25.72 | 32.77 | 41.77 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 3.65 | 2.66 | 1.43 | 5.02 | 18 | 11.11 | 14.16 | 18.04 | 22.99 | 29.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 18.53 | 17.79 | 34.26 | 43.75 | 52.34 | 68.24 | 86.96 | 110.82 | 141.22 | 179.97 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 43.95 | 75.06 | 81.06 | 112.02 | 66.54 | 170.33 | 217.06 | 276.62 | 352.51 | 449.23 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 16.61 | 24 | 38.09 | 41.47 | 53.20 | 71.98 | 91.73 | 116.89 | 148.97 | 189.84 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.34 | -5.25 | -1.79 | -9.62 | -3.21 | -9.25 | -11.79 | -15.02 | -19.14 | -24.39 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.51 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.026 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 30.04 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -317.16 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.87% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 3.615 |
| Total Debt | 105.32 |
| Total Equity | 75.40 |
| Total Capital | 180.73 |
| Debt Weighting | 58.28 |
| Equity Weighting | 41.72 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 411.12 | 438.40 | 581.71 | 748.20 | 1,060.94 | 1,352.02 | 1,722.96 | 2,195.68 | 2,798.09 | 3,565.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 7.08 | -4.47 | 15.93 | 13.54 | 8.39 | 16.33 | 20.82 | 26.53 | 33.81 | 43.08 |
| EBIT | 2.13 | -13 | 9.56 | 6.58 | 1.16 | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.81 | 1.03 | 1.31 |
| Tax Rate | -47.87% | -2.55% | 6.83% | -355.35% | -317.16% | -143.22% | -143.22% | -143.22% | -143.22% | -143.22% |
| EBIAT | 3.15 | -13.34 | 8.91 | 29.97 | 4.85 | 1.21 | 1.54 | 1.97 | 2.51 | 3.20 |
| Depreciation | 4.95 | 8.54 | 6.37 | 6.96 | 7.22 | 15.84 | 20.18 | 25.72 | 32.77 | 41.77 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.74 | -16.47 | -9.50 | -8.59 | -15.90 | -18.72 | -23.86 | -30.40 | -38.75 |
| Inventories | - | -31.11 | -5.99 | -30.96 | 45.48 | -103.79 | -46.73 | -59.55 | -75.89 | -96.72 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 7.39 | 14.10 | 3.38 | 11.73 | 18.78 | 19.75 | 25.17 | 32.07 | 40.87 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.34 | -5.25 | -1.79 | -9.62 | -3.21 | -9.25 | -11.79 | -15.02 | -19.14 | -24.39 |
| UFCF | 6.75 | -33.03 | 5.12 | -9.77 | 57.48 | -93.11 | -35.77 | -45.58 | -58.08 | -74.02 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -89.73 | -33.22 | -40.80 | -50.11 | -61.55 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -275.41 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.76 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -75.50 |
| Terminal Value | -4,289.75 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -3,566.83 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -3,842.24 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 88.11 |
| Equity Value | -3,930.34 |
| Shares Outstanding | 30.04 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -130.83 |