Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

$ 55.03

+0.19 (+0.35%)

Stock DCF: 372.22 | 55.03 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	48,005	49,330	51,904	49,301	49,818	50,317.63	50,822.28	51,331.99	51,846.81	52,366.79
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	15,434	16,174	16,455	16,363	15,558	16,208.38	16,370.93	16,535.12	16,700.96	16,868.45
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	13,148	13,982	14,558	14,555	13,696	14,168.98	14,311.08	14,454.61	14,599.58	14,746
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	2,286	2,192	1,897	1,808	1,862	2,039.40	2,059.85	2,080.51	2,101.38	2,122.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	70,492	46,548	33,434	29,419	24,518	41,713.91	42,132.27	42,554.82	42,981.61	43,412.69
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	10,002	10,503	11,446	11,723	10,146	10,901.16	11,010.49	11,120.91	11,232.45	11,345.10
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,616	1,846	1,383	1,282	1,559	1,560.12	1,575.77	1,591.57	1,607.54	1,623.66
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,385	1,904	2,059	2,218	2,362	2,007.87	2,028.01	2,048.34	2,068.89	2,089.64
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-964	-834	-909	-770	-692	-845.43	-853.91	-862.48	-871.13	-879.86
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 55.03
Beta	0.899
Diluted Shares Outstanding	4,236
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	20.14
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.678
Total Debt	11,526
Total Equity	233,107.08
Total Capital	244,633.08
Debt Weighting	4.71
Equity Weighting	95.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	48,005	49,330	51,904	49,301	49,818	50,317.63	50,822.28	51,331.99	51,846.81	52,366.79
EBITDA	15,434	16,174	16,455	16,363	15,558	16,208.38	16,370.93	16,535.12	16,700.96	16,868.45
EBIT	13,148	13,982	14,558	14,555	13,696	14,168.98	14,311.08	14,454.61	14,599.58	14,746
Tax Rate	21.80%	99.16%	20.25%	19.73%	20.14%	36.21%	36.21%	36.21%	36.21%	36.21%
EBIAT	10,282.34	117.96	11,610.63	11,683.59	10,937.59	9,037.95	9,128.59	9,220.14	9,312.61	9,406.01
Depreciation	2,286	2,192	1,897	1,808	1,862	2,039.40	2,059.85	2,080.51	2,101.38	2,122.45
Accounts Receivable	-	-501	-943	-277	1,577	-755.16	-109.33	-110.43	-111.53	-112.65
Inventories	-	-230	463	101	-277	-1.12	-15.65	-15.80	-15.96	-16.12
Accounts Payable	-	519	155	159	144	-354.13	20.14	20.34	20.54	20.75
Capital Expenditure	-964	-834	-909	-770	-692	-845.43	-853.91	-862.48	-871.13	-879.86
UFCF	11,604.34	1,263.96	12,273.63	12,704.59	13,551.59	9,121.50	10,229.69	10,332.28	10,435.91	10,540.57
WACC
PV UFCF						8,641.87	9,182.18	8,786.62	8,408.09	8,045.87
SUM PV UFCF										43,064.63

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.55
Free cash flow (t + 1)	11,067.60
Terminal Value	2,012,291.07
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,536,029.69

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,579,094.32
Net Debt	2,351
Equity Value	1,576,743.32
Shares Outstanding	4,236
Equity Value Per Share	372.22