Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

$47.03

-0.81 (-1.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 41.40 | 47.03 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 49,33051,90449,30149,81851,55752,168.2452,786.7353,412.5554,045.7954,686.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 16,17416,45516,36315,55816,79416,848.6117,048.3717,250.4817,45517,661.94
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 13,98214,55814,55513,69614,83714,835.0215,010.9015,188.8615,368.9415,551.15
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,1921,8971,8081,8621,9572,013.592,037.472,061.622,086.062,110.80
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 46,54833,43429,41924,51819,26731,826.0932,203.4132,585.2032,971.5233,362.42
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 10,50311,44611,72310,14610,52711,258.5611,392.0411,527.1011,663.7611,802.04
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,8461,3831,2821,5592,5681,785.961,807.131,828.561,850.241,872.17
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,9042,0592,2182,3622,2812,242.302,268.882,295.782,3232,350.54
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -834-909-770-692-477-763.54-772.59-781.75-791.02-800.40
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 47.03
Beta 0.955
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,192
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.41
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.08%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.146
Total Debt 9,515
Total Equity 197,149.76
Total Capital 206,664.76
Debt Weighting 4.60
Equity Weighting 95.40
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 49,33051,90449,30149,81851,55752,168.2452,786.7353,412.5554,045.7954,686.54
EBITDA 16,17416,45516,36315,55816,79416,848.6117,048.3717,250.4817,45517,661.94
EBIT 13,98214,55814,55513,69614,83714,835.0215,010.9015,188.8615,368.9415,551.15
Tax Rate 99.16%20.25%19.73%20.14%18.41%35.54%35.54%35.54%35.54%35.54%
EBIAT 117.9611,610.6311,683.5910,937.5912,105.739,563.289,676.669,791.389,907.4710,024.93
Depreciation 2,1921,8971,8081,8621,9572,013.592,037.472,061.622,086.062,110.80
Accounts Receivable --943-2771,577-381-731.56-133.48-135.06-136.66-138.28
Inventories -463101-277-1,009782.04-21.17-21.42-21.68-21.94
Accounts Payable -155159144-81-38.7026.5826.9027.2227.54
Capital Expenditure -834-909-770-692-477-763.54-772.59-781.75-791.02-800.40
UFCF 1,475.9612,273.6312,704.5913,551.5912,114.7310,825.1110,813.4710,941.6711,071.3911,202.65
WACC
PV UFCF 10,031.619,286.288,707.608,164.997,656.18
SUM PV UFCF 43,846.66

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.91
Free cash flow (t + 1) 11,426.70
Terminal Value 193,345.21
Present Value of Terminal Value 132,137.16

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 175,983.81
Net Debt 2,436
Equity Value 173,547.81
Shares Outstanding 4,192
Equity Value Per Share 41.40