Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

$ 55.03
+0.19 (+0.35%)
Stock DCF: 372.22 | 55.03 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 48,00549,33051,90449,30149,81850,317.6350,822.2851,331.9951,846.8152,366.79
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 15,43416,17416,45516,36315,55816,208.3816,370.9316,535.1216,700.9616,868.45
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 13,14813,98214,55814,55513,69614,168.9814,311.0814,454.6114,599.5814,746
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,2862,1921,8971,8081,8622,039.402,059.852,080.512,101.382,122.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 70,49246,54833,43429,41924,51841,713.9142,132.2742,554.8242,981.6143,412.69
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 10,00210,50311,44611,72310,14610,901.1611,010.4911,120.9111,232.4511,345.10
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,6161,8461,3831,2821,5591,560.121,575.771,591.571,607.541,623.66
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,3851,9042,0592,2182,3622,007.872,028.012,048.342,068.892,089.64
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -964-834-909-770-692-845.43-853.91-862.48-871.13-879.86
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 55.03
Beta 0.899
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,236
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.14
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.678
Total Debt 11,526
Total Equity 233,107.08
Total Capital 244,633.08
Debt Weighting 4.71
Equity Weighting 95.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 48,00549,33051,90449,30149,81850,317.6350,822.2851,331.9951,846.8152,366.79
EBITDA 15,43416,17416,45516,36315,55816,208.3816,370.9316,535.1216,700.9616,868.45
EBIT 13,14813,98214,55814,55513,69614,168.9814,311.0814,454.6114,599.5814,746
Tax Rate 21.80%99.16%20.25%19.73%20.14%36.21%36.21%36.21%36.21%36.21%
EBIAT 10,282.34117.9611,610.6311,683.5910,937.599,037.959,128.599,220.149,312.619,406.01
Depreciation 2,2862,1921,8971,8081,8622,039.402,059.852,080.512,101.382,122.45
Accounts Receivable --501-943-2771,577-755.16-109.33-110.43-111.53-112.65
Inventories --230463101-277-1.12-15.65-15.80-15.96-16.12
Accounts Payable -519155159144-354.1320.1420.3420.5420.75
Capital Expenditure -964-834-909-770-692-845.43-853.91-862.48-871.13-879.86
UFCF 11,604.341,263.9612,273.6312,704.5913,551.599,121.5010,229.6910,332.2810,435.9110,540.57
WACC
PV UFCF 8,641.879,182.188,786.628,408.098,045.87
SUM PV UFCF 43,064.63

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.55
Free cash flow (t + 1) 11,067.60
Terminal Value 2,012,291.07
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,536,029.69

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,579,094.32
Net Debt 2,351
Equity Value 1,576,743.32
Shares Outstanding 4,236
Equity Value Per Share 372.22