Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
$47.03
-0.81 (-1.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 49,330 | 51,904 | 49,301 | 49,818 | 51,557 | 52,168.24 | 52,786.73 | 53,412.55 | 54,045.79 | 54,686.54 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 16,174 | 16,455 | 16,363 | 15,558 | 16,794 | 16,848.61 | 17,048.37 | 17,250.48 | 17,455 | 17,661.94 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 13,982 | 14,558 | 14,555 | 13,696 | 14,837 | 14,835.02 | 15,010.90 | 15,188.86 | 15,368.94 | 15,551.15 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 2,192 | 1,897 | 1,808 | 1,862 | 1,957 | 2,013.59 | 2,037.47 | 2,061.62 | 2,086.06 | 2,110.80 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 46,548 | 33,434 | 29,419 | 24,518 | 19,267 | 31,826.09 | 32,203.41 | 32,585.20 | 32,971.52 | 33,362.42 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 10,503 | 11,446 | 11,723 | 10,146 | 10,527 | 11,258.56 | 11,392.04 | 11,527.10 | 11,663.76 | 11,802.04 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,846 | 1,383 | 1,282 | 1,559 | 2,568 | 1,785.96 | 1,807.13 | 1,828.56 | 1,850.24 | 1,872.17 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1,904 | 2,059 | 2,218 | 2,362 | 2,281 | 2,242.30 | 2,268.88 | 2,295.78 | 2,323 | 2,350.54 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -834 | -909 | -770 | -692 | -477 | -763.54 | -772.59 | -781.75 | -791.02 | -800.40 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 47.03 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.955 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4,192 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 18.41 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.08% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.146 |
Total Debt | 9,515 |
Total Equity | 197,149.76 |
Total Capital | 206,664.76 |
Debt Weighting | 4.60 |
Equity Weighting | 95.40 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 49,330 | 51,904 | 49,301 | 49,818 | 51,557 | 52,168.24 | 52,786.73 | 53,412.55 | 54,045.79 | 54,686.54 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 16,174 | 16,455 | 16,363 | 15,558 | 16,794 | 16,848.61 | 17,048.37 | 17,250.48 | 17,455 | 17,661.94 |
EBIT | 13,982 | 14,558 | 14,555 | 13,696 | 14,837 | 14,835.02 | 15,010.90 | 15,188.86 | 15,368.94 | 15,551.15 |
Tax Rate | 99.16% | 20.25% | 19.73% | 20.14% | 18.41% | 35.54% | 35.54% | 35.54% | 35.54% | 35.54% |
EBIAT | 117.96 | 11,610.63 | 11,683.59 | 10,937.59 | 12,105.73 | 9,563.28 | 9,676.66 | 9,791.38 | 9,907.47 | 10,024.93 |
Depreciation | 2,192 | 1,897 | 1,808 | 1,862 | 1,957 | 2,013.59 | 2,037.47 | 2,061.62 | 2,086.06 | 2,110.80 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -943 | -277 | 1,577 | -381 | -731.56 | -133.48 | -135.06 | -136.66 | -138.28 |
Inventories | - | 463 | 101 | -277 | -1,009 | 782.04 | -21.17 | -21.42 | -21.68 | -21.94 |
Accounts Payable | - | 155 | 159 | 144 | -81 | -38.70 | 26.58 | 26.90 | 27.22 | 27.54 |
Capital Expenditure | -834 | -909 | -770 | -692 | -477 | -763.54 | -772.59 | -781.75 | -791.02 | -800.40 |
UFCF | 1,475.96 | 12,273.63 | 12,704.59 | 13,551.59 | 12,114.73 | 10,825.11 | 10,813.47 | 10,941.67 | 11,071.39 | 11,202.65 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 10,031.61 | 9,286.28 | 8,707.60 | 8,164.99 | 7,656.18 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 43,846.66 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.91 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 11,426.70 |
Terminal Value | 193,345.21 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 132,137.16 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 175,983.81 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,436 |
Equity Value | 173,547.81 |
Shares Outstanding | 4,192 |
Equity Value Per Share | 41.40 |