Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Catalent, Inc. (CTLT)
$45.34
-1.21 (-2.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,518 | 3,094.30 | 3,998 | 4,828 | 4,276 | 4,932.58 | 5,689.97 | 6,563.66 | 7,571.50 | 8,734.10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 290.40 | 397.50 | 643 | 727 | 79 | 565.94 | 652.84 | 753.08 | 868.72 | 1,002.11 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 61.80 | 143.80 | 354 | 349 | -266.67 | 167.20 | 192.87 | 222.49 | 256.65 | 296.06 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 228.60 | 253.70 | 289 | 378 | 345.67 | 398.74 | 459.97 | 530.60 | 612.07 | 706.05 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 345.40 | 953.20 | 967 | 538 | 280 | 852.36 | 983.24 | 1,134.21 | 1,308.37 | 1,509.27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 716.40 | 838.10 | 1,012 | 1,051 | 977 | 1,237.74 | 1,427.80 | 1,647.04 | 1,899.94 | 2,191.67 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 257.20 | 323.80 | 563 | 702 | 764 | 662.62 | 764.37 | 881.74 | 1,017.13 | 1,173.31 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 255.80 | 321 | 385 | 421 | 427 | 482.10 | 556.12 | 641.51 | 740.02 | 853.64 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -218.10 | -465.80 | -686 | -660 | -583 | -672.59 | -775.86 | -895 | -1,032.42 | -1,190.95 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 45.34 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.225 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 181 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 26.35 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.79% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.222 |
| Total Debt | 4,849 |
| Total Equity | 8,206.54 |
| Total Capital | 13,055.54 |
| Debt Weighting | 37.14 |
| Equity Weighting | 62.86 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,518 | 3,094.30 | 3,998 | 4,828 | 4,276 | 4,932.58 | 5,689.97 | 6,563.66 | 7,571.50 | 8,734.10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 290.40 | 397.50 | 643 | 727 | 79 | 565.94 | 652.84 | 753.08 | 868.72 | 1,002.11 |
| EBIT | 61.80 | 143.80 | 354 | 349 | -266.67 | 167.20 | 192.87 | 222.49 | 256.65 | 296.06 |
| Tax Rate | 14.29% | 15.25% | 18.18% | 14.21% | 26.35% | 17.66% | 17.66% | 17.66% | 17.66% | 17.66% |
| EBIAT | 52.97 | 121.88 | 289.64 | 299.39 | -196.40 | 137.68 | 158.82 | 183.20 | 211.34 | 243.79 |
| Depreciation | 228.60 | 253.70 | 289 | 378 | 345.67 | 398.74 | 459.97 | 530.60 | 612.07 | 706.05 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -121.70 | -173.90 | -39 | 74 | -260.74 | -190.05 | -219.24 | -252.90 | -291.73 |
| Inventories | - | -66.60 | -239.20 | -139 | -62 | 101.38 | -101.75 | -117.37 | -135.39 | -156.18 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 65.20 | 64 | 36 | 6 | 55.10 | 74.03 | 85.39 | 98.50 | 113.63 |
| Capital Expenditure | -218.10 | -465.80 | -686 | -660 | -583 | -672.59 | -775.86 | -895 | -1,032.42 | -1,190.95 |
| UFCF | 63.47 | -213.32 | -456.46 | -124.61 | -415.74 | -240.44 | -374.85 | -432.41 | -498.80 | -575.39 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -223.75 | -324.61 | -348.46 | -374.06 | -401.54 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,672.42 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.46 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -586.90 |
| Terminal Value | -10,749.11 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -7,501.33 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -9,173.75 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 4,569 |
| Equity Value | -13,742.75 |
| Shares Outstanding | 181 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -75.93 |