Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A. (CTT.LS)
3.33 €
+0.04 (+1.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 693.81 | 717.34 | 717.49 | 813.50 | 862.94 | 912.28 | 964.44 | 1,019.58 | 1,077.88 | 1,139.51 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 39.73 | 56.84 | 46.75 | 55.84 | 73.69 | 64.90 | 68.61 | 72.53 | 76.68 | 81.06 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 7.63 | 23.65 | 13.55 | 18.20 | 33.77 | 22.69 | 23.99 | 25.36 | 26.81 | 28.34 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 32.10 | 33.19 | 33.20 | 37.64 | 39.93 | 42.21 | 44.62 | 47.17 | 49.87 | 52.72 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 541.40 | 477.66 | 592.57 | 946.77 | 1,068.29 | 852.78 | 901.54 | 953.09 | 1,007.58 | 1,065.19 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 152 | 272.11 | 276.51 | 597.45 | 680.21 | 457.32 | 483.47 | 511.11 | 540.33 | 571.23 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 5.67 | 5.99 | 6.71 | 7.04 | 8.29 | 8.05 | 8.51 | 9 | 9.51 | 10.06 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 68.21 | 76.26 | 87.29 | 88.14 | 97.42 | 99.90 | 105.61 | 111.65 | 118.03 | 124.78 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -28.41 | -36.27 | -37.83 | -31.12 | -33.88 | -40.46 | -42.77 | -45.22 | -47.80 | -50.54 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 3.33 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.158 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 147.18 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 22.06 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.25% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.094 |
Total Debt | 2,886.86 |
Total Equity | 490.11 |
Total Capital | 3,376.97 |
Debt Weighting | 85.49 |
Equity Weighting | 14.51 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 693.81 | 717.34 | 717.49 | 813.50 | 862.94 | 912.28 | 964.44 | 1,019.58 | 1,077.88 | 1,139.51 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 39.73 | 56.84 | 46.75 | 55.84 | 73.69 | 64.90 | 68.61 | 72.53 | 76.68 | 81.06 |
EBIT | 7.63 | 23.65 | 13.55 | 18.20 | 33.77 | 22.69 | 23.99 | 25.36 | 26.81 | 28.34 |
Tax Rate | 39.44% | 17.82% | 27.92% | 24.41% | 22.06% | 26.33% | 26.33% | 26.33% | 26.33% | 26.33% |
EBIAT | 4.62 | 19.43 | 9.77 | 13.76 | 26.32 | 16.72 | 17.67 | 18.68 | 19.75 | 20.88 |
Depreciation | 32.10 | 33.19 | 33.20 | 37.64 | 39.93 | 42.21 | 44.62 | 47.17 | 49.87 | 52.72 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -120.11 | -4.40 | -320.94 | -82.77 | 222.89 | -26.15 | -27.64 | -29.22 | -30.89 |
Inventories | - | -0.33 | -0.72 | -0.33 | -1.25 | 0.24 | -0.46 | -0.49 | -0.51 | -0.54 |
Accounts Payable | - | 8.05 | 11.03 | 0.86 | 9.27 | 2.48 | 5.71 | 6.04 | 6.38 | 6.75 |
Capital Expenditure | -28.41 | -36.27 | -37.83 | -31.12 | -33.88 | -40.46 | -42.77 | -45.22 | -47.80 | -50.54 |
UFCF | 8.32 | -96.03 | 11.05 | -300.13 | -42.39 | 244.08 | -1.37 | -1.45 | -1.54 | -1.62 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 240.05 | -1.33 | -1.38 | -1.44 | -1.49 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 234.41 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 1.68 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1.66 |
Terminal Value | 517.50 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 476.14 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 710.55 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,430.39 |
Equity Value | -1,719.85 |
Shares Outstanding | 147.18 |
Equity Value Per Share | -11.69 |