Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A. (CTT.LS)
3.335 €
-0.01 (-0.45%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 693.81 | 717.34 | 717.49 | 813.50 | 862.94 | 912.28 | 964.44 | 1,019.58 | 1,077.88 | 1,139.51 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 70.05 | 100.16 | 32.69 | 55.45 | 56.07 | 76.50 | 80.88 | 85.50 | 90.39 | 95.56 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 37.95 | 45.93 | -11.02 | 5.88 | 3.49 | 20.92 | 22.11 | 23.38 | 24.71 | 26.13 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 32.10 | 54.22 | 43.72 | 49.57 | 52.58 | 55.58 | 58.76 | 62.12 | 65.67 | 69.43 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 541.40 | 481.89 | 595.84 | 946.77 | 1,068.29 | 854.68 | 903.55 | 955.22 | 1,009.83 | 1,067.57 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 152 | 240 | 262 | 547 | 343.28 | 362.91 | 383.66 | 405.59 | 428.78 | 453.30 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 5.67 | 5.99 | 6.71 | 7.04 | 8.29 | 8.05 | 8.51 | 9 | 9.51 | 10.06 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 68.21 | 76.26 | 87.29 | 88.14 | 97.42 | 99.90 | 105.61 | 111.65 | 118.03 | 124.78 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | 0.51 | 1.11 | -37.83 | -31.12 | -33.88 | -23.35 | -24.68 | -26.09 | -27.58 | -29.16 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.335 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.103 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 150 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.06 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.25% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.903 |
| Total Debt | 2,886.86 |
| Total Equity | 500.25 |
| Total Capital | 3,387.11 |
| Debt Weighting | 85.23 |
| Equity Weighting | 14.77 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 693.81 | 717.34 | 717.49 | 813.50 | 862.94 | 912.28 | 964.44 | 1,019.58 | 1,077.88 | 1,139.51 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 70.05 | 100.16 | 32.69 | 55.45 | 56.07 | 76.50 | 80.88 | 85.50 | 90.39 | 95.56 |
| EBIT | 37.95 | 45.93 | -11.02 | 5.88 | 3.49 | 20.92 | 22.11 | 23.38 | 24.71 | 26.13 |
| Tax Rate | 39.44% | 17.82% | 27.92% | 24.41% | 22.06% | 26.33% | 26.33% | 26.33% | 26.33% | 26.33% |
| EBIAT | 22.98 | 37.75 | -7.94 | 4.45 | 2.72 | 15.41 | 16.29 | 17.22 | 18.21 | 19.25 |
| Depreciation | 32.10 | 54.22 | 43.72 | 49.57 | 52.58 | 55.58 | 58.76 | 62.12 | 65.67 | 69.43 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -88 | -22 | -285 | 203.72 | -19.63 | -20.75 | -21.94 | -23.19 | -24.52 |
| Inventories | - | -0.33 | -0.72 | -0.33 | -1.25 | 0.24 | -0.46 | -0.49 | -0.51 | -0.54 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 8.05 | 11.03 | 0.86 | 9.27 | 2.48 | 5.71 | 6.04 | 6.38 | 6.75 |
| Capital Expenditure | 0.51 | 1.11 | -37.83 | -31.12 | -33.88 | -23.35 | -24.68 | -26.09 | -27.58 | -29.16 |
| UFCF | 55.59 | 12.81 | -13.75 | -261.58 | 233.16 | 30.74 | 34.87 | 36.87 | 38.98 | 41.20 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 30.28 | 33.83 | 35.23 | 36.68 | 38.19 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 174.20 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 1.53 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 42.03 |
| Terminal Value | -8,942.20 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -8,288.43 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -8,114.23 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,430.39 |
| Equity Value | -10,544.62 |
| Shares Outstanding | 150 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -70.30 |