Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A. (CTT.LS)

3.335 €

-0.01 (-0.45%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -70.30 | 3.335 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 693.81717.34717.49813.50862.94912.28964.441,019.581,077.881,139.51
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 70.05100.1632.6955.4556.0776.5080.8885.5090.3995.56
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 37.9545.93-11.025.883.4920.9222.1123.3824.7126.13
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 32.1054.2243.7249.5752.5855.5858.7662.1265.6769.43
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 541.40481.89595.84946.771,068.29854.68903.55955.221,009.831,067.57
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 152240262547343.28362.91383.66405.59428.78453.30
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5.675.996.717.048.298.058.5199.5110.06
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 68.2176.2687.2988.1497.4299.90105.61111.65118.03124.78
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 0.511.11-37.83-31.12-33.88-23.35-24.68-26.09-27.58-29.16
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.335
Beta 1.103
Diluted Shares Outstanding 150
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.06
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.903
Total Debt 2,886.86
Total Equity 500.25
Total Capital 3,387.11
Debt Weighting 85.23
Equity Weighting 14.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 693.81717.34717.49813.50862.94912.28964.441,019.581,077.881,139.51
EBITDA 70.05100.1632.6955.4556.0776.5080.8885.5090.3995.56
EBIT 37.9545.93-11.025.883.4920.9222.1123.3824.7126.13
Tax Rate 39.44%17.82%27.92%24.41%22.06%26.33%26.33%26.33%26.33%26.33%
EBIAT 22.9837.75-7.944.452.7215.4116.2917.2218.2119.25
Depreciation 32.1054.2243.7249.5752.5855.5858.7662.1265.6769.43
Accounts Receivable --88-22-285203.72-19.63-20.75-21.94-23.19-24.52
Inventories --0.33-0.72-0.33-1.250.24-0.46-0.49-0.51-0.54
Accounts Payable -8.0511.030.869.272.485.716.046.386.75
Capital Expenditure 0.511.11-37.83-31.12-33.88-23.35-24.68-26.09-27.58-29.16
UFCF 55.5912.81-13.75-261.58233.1630.7434.8736.8738.9841.20
WACC
PV UFCF 30.2833.8335.2336.6838.19
SUM PV UFCF 174.20

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 1.53
Free cash flow (t + 1) 42.03
Terminal Value -8,942.20
Present Value of Terminal Value -8,288.43

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -8,114.23
Net Debt 2,430.39
Equity Value -10,544.62
Shares Outstanding 150
Equity Value Per Share -70.30