Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A. (CTT.LS)

3.33 €

+0.04 (+1.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -11.69 | 3.33 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 693.81717.34717.49813.50862.94912.28964.441,019.581,077.881,139.51
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 39.7356.8446.7555.8473.6964.9068.6172.5376.6881.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 7.6323.6513.5518.2033.7722.6923.9925.3626.8128.34
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 32.1033.1933.2037.6439.9342.2144.6247.1749.8752.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 541.40477.66592.57946.771,068.29852.78901.54953.091,007.581,065.19
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 152272.11276.51597.45680.21457.32483.47511.11540.33571.23
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5.675.996.717.048.298.058.5199.5110.06
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 68.2176.2687.2988.1497.4299.90105.61111.65118.03124.78
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -28.41-36.27-37.83-31.12-33.88-40.46-42.77-45.22-47.80-50.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.33
Beta 1.158
Diluted Shares Outstanding 147.18
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.06
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.094
Total Debt 2,886.86
Total Equity 490.11
Total Capital 3,376.97
Debt Weighting 85.49
Equity Weighting 14.51
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 693.81717.34717.49813.50862.94912.28964.441,019.581,077.881,139.51
EBITDA 39.7356.8446.7555.8473.6964.9068.6172.5376.6881.06
EBIT 7.6323.6513.5518.2033.7722.6923.9925.3626.8128.34
Tax Rate 39.44%17.82%27.92%24.41%22.06%26.33%26.33%26.33%26.33%26.33%
EBIAT 4.6219.439.7713.7626.3216.7217.6718.6819.7520.88
Depreciation 32.1033.1933.2037.6439.9342.2144.6247.1749.8752.72
Accounts Receivable --120.11-4.40-320.94-82.77222.89-26.15-27.64-29.22-30.89
Inventories --0.33-0.72-0.33-1.250.24-0.46-0.49-0.51-0.54
Accounts Payable -8.0511.030.869.272.485.716.046.386.75
Capital Expenditure -28.41-36.27-37.83-31.12-33.88-40.46-42.77-45.22-47.80-50.54
UFCF 8.32-96.0311.05-300.13-42.39244.08-1.37-1.45-1.54-1.62
WACC
PV UFCF 240.05-1.33-1.38-1.44-1.49
SUM PV UFCF 234.41

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 1.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1.66
Terminal Value 517.50
Present Value of Terminal Value 476.14

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 710.55
Net Debt 2,430.39
Equity Value -1,719.85
Shares Outstanding 147.18
Equity Value Per Share -11.69