Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A. (CTT.LS)

3.33 €

+0.04 (+1.06%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -11.69 | 3.33 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	693.81	717.34	717.49	813.50	862.94	912.28	964.44	1,019.58	1,077.88	1,139.51
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	39.73	56.84	46.75	55.84	73.69	64.90	68.61	72.53	76.68	81.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	7.63	23.65	13.55	18.20	33.77	22.69	23.99	25.36	26.81	28.34
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	32.10	33.19	33.20	37.64	39.93	42.21	44.62	47.17	49.87	52.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	541.40	477.66	592.57	946.77	1,068.29	852.78	901.54	953.09	1,007.58	1,065.19
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	152	272.11	276.51	597.45	680.21	457.32	483.47	511.11	540.33	571.23
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	5.67	5.99	6.71	7.04	8.29	8.05	8.51	9	9.51	10.06
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	68.21	76.26	87.29	88.14	97.42	99.90	105.61	111.65	118.03	124.78
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-28.41	-36.27	-37.83	-31.12	-33.88	-40.46	-42.77	-45.22	-47.80	-50.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 3.33
Beta	1.158
Diluted Shares Outstanding	147.18
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.06
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.094
Total Debt	2,886.86
Total Equity	490.11
Total Capital	3,376.97
Debt Weighting	85.49
Equity Weighting	14.51
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	693.81	717.34	717.49	813.50	862.94	912.28	964.44	1,019.58	1,077.88	1,139.51
EBITDA	39.73	56.84	46.75	55.84	73.69	64.90	68.61	72.53	76.68	81.06
EBIT	7.63	23.65	13.55	18.20	33.77	22.69	23.99	25.36	26.81	28.34
Tax Rate	39.44%	17.82%	27.92%	24.41%	22.06%	26.33%	26.33%	26.33%	26.33%	26.33%
EBIAT	4.62	19.43	9.77	13.76	26.32	16.72	17.67	18.68	19.75	20.88
Depreciation	32.10	33.19	33.20	37.64	39.93	42.21	44.62	47.17	49.87	52.72
Accounts Receivable	-	-120.11	-4.40	-320.94	-82.77	222.89	-26.15	-27.64	-29.22	-30.89
Inventories	-	-0.33	-0.72	-0.33	-1.25	0.24	-0.46	-0.49	-0.51	-0.54
Accounts Payable	-	8.05	11.03	0.86	9.27	2.48	5.71	6.04	6.38	6.75
Capital Expenditure	-28.41	-36.27	-37.83	-31.12	-33.88	-40.46	-42.77	-45.22	-47.80	-50.54
UFCF	8.32	-96.03	11.05	-300.13	-42.39	244.08	-1.37	-1.45	-1.54	-1.62
WACC
PV UFCF						240.05	-1.33	-1.38	-1.44	-1.49
SUM PV UFCF										234.41

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	1.68
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-1.66
Terminal Value	517.50
Present Value of Terminal Value	476.14

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	710.55
Net Debt	2,430.39
Equity Value	-1,719.85
Shares Outstanding	147.18
Equity Value Per Share	-11.69