Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Carnival Corporation & plc (CUK)

$9.62

-0.53 (-5.22%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -33.01 | 9.62 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 17,51018,88120,8255,5941,9081,331.29928.89648.12452.22315.53
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4,7105,4175,427-7,117-5,688-915.10-638.50-445.51-310.85-216.89
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,8643,4003,267-9,358-7,921-1,417.50-989.05-690.10-481.51-335.97
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,8462,0172,1602,2412,233502.41350.55244.59170.66119.08
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 3959825189,5139,1391,754.601,224.25854.21596.01415.86
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 38745042733535683.3158.1340.5628.3019.75
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 762730756624797172.47120.3483.9658.5940.88
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,944-3,749-5,429-3,620-3,607-842.70-587.98-410.26-286.25-199.73
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9.62
Beta 2.091
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,123
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.22
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.62%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.765
Total Debt 34,607
Total Equity 10,803.26
Total Capital 45,410.26
Debt Weighting 76.21
Equity Weighting 23.79
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 17,51018,88120,8255,5941,9081,331.29928.89648.12452.22315.53
EBITDA 4,7105,4175,427-7,117-5,688-915.10-638.50-445.51-310.85-216.89
EBIT 2,8643,4003,267-9,358-7,921-1,417.50-989.05-690.10-481.51-335.97
Tax Rate 2.25%1.71%2.29%0.17%0.22%1.33%1.33%1.33%1.33%1.33%
EBIAT 2,799.543,341.693,192.26-9,342.48-7,903.53-1,398.68-975.92-680.93-475.12-331.51
Depreciation 1,8462,0172,1602,2412,233502.41350.55244.59170.66119.08
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --632392-21272.6925.1817.5712.268.55
Accounts Payable --3226-132173-624.53-52.13-36.37-25.38-17.71
Capital Expenditure -2,944-3,749-5,429-3,620-3,607-842.70-587.98-410.26-286.25-199.73
UFCF 1,701.541,514.69-27.74-10,761.48-9,125.53-2,090.82-1,240.30-865.40-603.83-421.31
WACC
PV UFCF -1,962.11-1,092.29-715.21-468.31-306.64
SUM PV UFCF -4,544.57

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.56
Free cash flow (t + 1) -429.74
Terminal Value -9,424.13
Present Value of Terminal Value -6,859.15

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -11,403.71
Net Debt 25,668
Equity Value -37,071.71
Shares Outstanding 1,123
Equity Value Per Share -33.01