Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Carnival Corporation & plc (CUK)
$8.05
+0.28 (+3.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 17,510 | 18,881 | 20,825 | 5,594 | 1,908 | 1,331.29 | 928.89 | 648.12 | 452.22 | 315.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 4,710 | 5,417 | 5,427 | -7,117 | -5,688 | -915.10 | -638.50 | -445.51 | -310.85 | -216.89 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 2,864 | 3,400 | 3,267 | -9,358 | -7,921 | -1,417.50 | -989.05 | -690.10 | -481.51 | -335.97 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1,846 | 2,017 | 2,160 | 2,241 | 2,233 | 502.41 | 350.55 | 244.59 | 170.66 | 119.08 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 395 | 982 | 518 | 9,513 | 9,139 | 1,754.60 | 1,224.25 | 854.21 | 596.01 | 415.86 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 387 | 450 | 427 | 335 | 356 | 83.31 | 58.13 | 40.56 | 28.30 | 19.75 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 762 | 730 | 756 | 624 | 797 | 172.47 | 120.34 | 83.96 | 58.59 | 40.88 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2,944 | -3,749 | -5,429 | -3,620 | -3,607 | -842.70 | -587.98 | -410.26 | -286.25 | -199.73 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 8.05 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.036 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,123 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.22 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 13.576 |
| Total Debt | 34,607 |
| Total Equity | 9,040.15 |
| Total Capital | 43,647.15 |
| Debt Weighting | 79.29 |
| Equity Weighting | 20.71 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 17,510 | 18,881 | 20,825 | 5,594 | 1,908 | 1,331.29 | 928.89 | 648.12 | 452.22 | 315.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 4,710 | 5,417 | 5,427 | -7,117 | -5,688 | -915.10 | -638.50 | -445.51 | -310.85 | -216.89 |
| EBIT | 2,864 | 3,400 | 3,267 | -9,358 | -7,921 | -1,417.50 | -989.05 | -690.10 | -481.51 | -335.97 |
| Tax Rate | 2.25% | 1.71% | 2.29% | 0.17% | 0.22% | 1.33% | 1.33% | 1.33% | 1.33% | 1.33% |
| EBIAT | 2,799.54 | 3,341.69 | 3,192.26 | -9,342.48 | -7,903.53 | -1,398.68 | -975.92 | -680.93 | -475.12 | -331.51 |
| Depreciation | 1,846 | 2,017 | 2,160 | 2,241 | 2,233 | 502.41 | 350.55 | 244.59 | 170.66 | 119.08 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -63 | 23 | 92 | -21 | 272.69 | 25.18 | 17.57 | 12.26 | 8.55 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -32 | 26 | -132 | 173 | -624.53 | -52.13 | -36.37 | -25.38 | -17.71 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2,944 | -3,749 | -5,429 | -3,620 | -3,607 | -842.70 | -587.98 | -410.26 | -286.25 | -199.73 |
| UFCF | 1,701.54 | 1,514.69 | -27.74 | -10,761.48 | -9,125.53 | -2,090.82 | -1,240.30 | -865.40 | -603.83 | -421.31 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -1,963.76 | -1,094.14 | -717.03 | -469.90 | -307.94 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -4,552.77 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.47 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -429.74 |
| Terminal Value | -9,613.88 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -7,026.87 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -11,579.65 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 25,668 |
| Equity Value | -37,247.65 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,123 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -33.17 |