Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CURO Group Holdings Corp. (CURO)
$1.11
-0.03 (-2.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 909.02 | 830.80 | 569.01 | 660.45 | 776.13 | 763.46 | 750.99 | 738.73 | 726.67 | 714.81 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 82.63 | 168.67 | 99.13 | 107.51 | 27.82 | 101.81 | 100.15 | 98.51 | 96.90 | 95.32 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 64.29 | 150.04 | 81.63 | 80.56 | -8.50 | 77.23 | 75.97 | 74.73 | 73.51 | 72.31 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 18.34 | 18.63 | 17.50 | 26.96 | 36.32 | 24.58 | 24.18 | 23.78 | 23.39 | 23.01 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 71.03 | 75.24 | 213.34 | 63.18 | 73.93 | 112.16 | 110.33 | 108.53 | 106.76 | 105.01 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 47.72 | 11.43 | 32.06 | 31.77 | 21.92 | 30.38 | 29.88 | 29.39 | 28.91 | 28.44 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | -17.20 | -15.72 | -10.77 | -12.50 | -14.69 | -14.45 | -14.21 | -13.98 | -13.75 | -13.53 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 45.37 | 79.93 | 69.75 | 156.41 | 112.29 | 99.28 | 97.66 | 96.06 | 94.49 | 92.95 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -14.03 | -13.98 | -10.92 | -23.65 | -45.82 | -22.34 | -21.97 | -21.62 | -21.26 | -20.92 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.11 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.720 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 40.43 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 4.47 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.15% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 17.276 |
| Total Debt | 4,279.59 |
| Total Equity | 44.88 |
| Total Capital | 4,324.46 |
| Debt Weighting | 98.96 |
| Equity Weighting | 1.04 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 909.02 | 830.80 | 569.01 | 660.45 | 776.13 | 763.46 | 750.99 | 738.73 | 726.67 | 714.81 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 82.63 | 168.67 | 99.13 | 107.51 | 27.82 | 101.81 | 100.15 | 98.51 | 96.90 | 95.32 |
| EBIT | 64.29 | 150.04 | 81.63 | 80.56 | -8.50 | 77.23 | 75.97 | 74.73 | 73.51 | 72.31 |
| Tax Rate | 221.72% | 21.74% | 5.74% | 26.35% | 4.47% | 56.00% | 56.00% | 56.00% | 56.00% | 56.00% |
| EBIAT | -78.26 | 117.43 | 76.94 | 59.33 | -8.12 | 33.98 | 33.43 | 32.88 | 32.34 | 31.82 |
| Depreciation | 18.34 | 18.63 | 17.50 | 26.96 | 36.32 | 24.58 | 24.18 | 23.78 | 23.39 | 23.01 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 36.29 | -20.64 | 0.29 | 9.86 | -8.46 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| Inventories | - | -1.48 | -4.95 | 1.73 | 2.19 | -0.24 | -0.24 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.22 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 34.56 | -10.18 | 86.66 | -44.12 | -13.01 | -1.62 | -1.59 | -1.57 | -1.54 |
| Capital Expenditure | -14.03 | -13.98 | -10.92 | -23.65 | -45.82 | -22.34 | -21.97 | -21.62 | -21.26 | -20.92 |
| UFCF | -73.95 | 191.45 | 47.75 | 151.32 | -49.70 | 14.51 | 34.27 | 33.71 | 33.16 | 32.62 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 13.92 | 31.51 | 29.72 | 28.04 | 26.45 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 129.64 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.28 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 33.27 |
| Terminal Value | 1,459.12 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,183.28 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,312.92 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 4,205.66 |
| Equity Value | -2,892.74 |
| Shares Outstanding | 40.43 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -71.55 |