Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Calavo Growers, Inc. (CVGW)

$28

+1.09 (+4.05%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -80.25 | 28 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,088.76	1,195.78	1,059.37	1,055.83	1,191.07	1,223.52	1,256.85	1,291.09	1,326.27	1,362.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	58.87	64.11	-0.95	17.30	15.28	33.28	34.19	35.12	36.07	37.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	45.83	50.48	-17.04	-0.27	-1.31	16.36	16.81	17.26	17.74	18.22
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	13.04	13.63	16.09	17.57	16.59	16.92	17.38	17.85	18.34	18.84
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1.52	7.97	4.05	1.89	2.06	3.77	3.87	3.98	4.09	4.20
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	69.66	66.29	74.26	90.39	62.41	80.15	82.33	84.57	86.88	89.24
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	35.04	36.89	41.79	40.76	38.83	42.50	43.66	44.85	46.07	47.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	27.74	30.88	20.73	32.83	30.66	31.25	32.10	32.98	33.87	34.80
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-15	-16.72	-11.34	-11.44	-9.77	-14.07	-14.46	-14.85	-15.25	-15.67
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 28
Beta	0.686
Diluted Shares Outstanding	17.66
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-124.22
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.54%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.787
Total Debt	66.29
Total Equity	494.56
Total Capital	560.85
Debt Weighting	11.82
Equity Weighting	88.18
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,088.76	1,195.78	1,059.37	1,055.83	1,191.07	1,223.52	1,256.85	1,291.09	1,326.27	1,362.40
EBITDA	58.87	64.11	-0.95	17.30	15.28	33.28	34.19	35.12	36.07	37.06
EBIT	45.83	50.48	-17.04	-0.27	-1.31	16.36	16.81	17.26	17.74	18.22
Tax Rate	42.95%	42.34%	-13.32%	2,272.43%	-124.22%	444.03%	444.03%	444.03%	444.03%	444.03%
EBIAT	26.15	29.11	-19.31	5.93	-2.94	-56.29	-57.82	-59.40	-61.02	-62.68
Depreciation	13.04	13.63	16.09	17.57	16.59	16.92	17.38	17.85	18.34	18.84
Accounts Receivable	-	3.38	-7.97	-16.13	27.98	-17.74	-2.18	-2.24	-2.30	-2.37
Inventories	-	-1.85	-4.90	1.03	1.93	-3.67	-1.16	-1.19	-1.22	-1.26
Accounts Payable	-	3.15	-10.15	12.10	-2.17	0.59	0.85	0.87	0.90	0.92
Capital Expenditure	-15	-16.72	-11.34	-11.44	-9.77	-14.07	-14.46	-14.85	-15.25	-15.67
UFCF	24.19	30.70	-37.58	9.06	31.62	-74.26	-57.39	-58.95	-60.56	-62.21
WACC
PV UFCF						-69.86	-50.80	-49.09	-47.45	-45.85
SUM PV UFCF										-263.05

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.29
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-63.45
Terminal Value	-1,479.03
Present Value of Terminal Value	-1,090.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-1,353.27
Net Debt	64.23
Equity Value	-1,417.50
Shares Outstanding	17.66
Equity Value Per Share	-80.25