Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI)

$33.18

+1.11 (+3.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 9.34 | 33.18 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 6,3643,9307,24210,8969,24711,127.6113,390.6916,114.0319,391.2223,334.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 598-2681149041,437622.88749.56902.011,085.451,306.21
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 311-546-1656161,139148.81179.07215.49259.31312.05
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 287278279288298474.08570.49686.52826.14994.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 6526675105105811,006.451,211.141,457.451,753.862,110.56
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 182178299358286398.29479.29576.76694.06835.22
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 390298484624604726.70874.491,052.341,266.361,523.90
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 412282409497530658.53792.46953.631,147.571,380.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -159-283-249-274-262-411.40-495.07-595.76-716.92-862.73
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 33.18
Beta 1.598
Diluted Shares Outstanding 100.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 29.12
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.02%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.805
Total Debt 2,199
Total Equity 3,334.59
Total Capital 5,533.59
Debt Weighting 39.74
Equity Weighting 60.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 6,3643,9307,24210,8969,24711,127.6113,390.6916,114.0319,391.2223,334.92
EBITDA 598-2681149041,437622.88749.56902.011,085.451,306.21
EBIT 311-546-1656161,139148.81179.07215.49259.31312.05
Tax Rate 22.61%22.89%-12.12%19.60%29.12%16.42%16.42%16.42%16.42%16.42%
EBIAT 240.69-421.01-185495.26807.27124.37149.66180.10216.73260.81
Depreciation 287278279288298474.08570.49686.52826.14994.16
Accounts Receivable -4-121-5972-112.29-81-97.48-117.30-141.16
Inventories -92-186-14020-122.70-147.79-177.85-214.02-257.55
Accounts Payable --1301278833128.53133.93161.17193.94233.39
Capital Expenditure -159-283-249-274-262-411.40-495.07-595.76-716.92-862.73
UFCF 368.69-460.01-335398.26968.2780.59130.22156.70188.57226.92
WACC
PV UFCF 74.41111123.33137.03152.24
SUM PV UFCF 598.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.31
Free cash flow (t + 1) 228.06
Terminal Value 2,920.10
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,959.09

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,557.11
Net Debt 1,618
Equity Value 939.11
Shares Outstanding 100.50
Equity Value Per Share 9.34