Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI)

$36.85

-1.10 (-2.90%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 32.63 | 36.85 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,988.407,1246,3643,9307,2428,225.539,342.6310,611.4412,052.5713,689.42
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 341.6069389857413603.69685.67778.79884.561,004.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 127.60480611-221134241.77274.61311.90354.26402.37
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 214213287278279361.92411.07466.89530.30602.32
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 481.80668652667510850.22965.691,096.831,245.791,414.98
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 193.50169182178299281.66319.92363.36412.71468.76
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 385.20380390298484529.08600.93682.54775.24880.52
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 333.90320412282409483.08548.69623.20707.84803.97
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -118.60-102-159-283-249-272.26-309.24-351.24-398.94-453.12
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 36.85
Beta 1.554
Diluted Shares Outstanding 100.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 62.12
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.037
Total Debt 1,673
Total Equity 3,703.43
Total Capital 5,376.43
Debt Weighting 31.12
Equity Weighting 68.88
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,988.407,1246,3643,9307,2428,225.539,342.6310,611.4412,052.5713,689.42
EBITDA 341.6069389857413603.69685.67778.79884.561,004.69
EBIT 127.60480611-221134241.77274.61311.90354.26402.37
Tax Rate 41.31%42.20%22.61%38.31%62.12%41.31%41.31%41.31%41.31%41.31%
EBIAT 74.89277.44472.87-136.3350.76141.89161.16183.05207.91236.15
Depreciation 214213287278279361.92411.07466.89530.30602.32
Accounts Receivable -24.50-134-12117.34-38.25-43.45-49.35-56.05
Inventories -5.20-1092-186-45.08-71.85-81.61-92.70-105.28
Accounts Payable --13.9092-13012774.0865.6174.5284.6496.13
Capital Expenditure -118.60-102-159-283-249-272.26-309.24-351.24-398.94-453.12
UFCF 170.29404.24669.87-175.33-99.24277.89218.49248.16281.87320.15
WACC
PV UFCF 256.28185.84194.67203.91213.60
SUM PV UFCF 1,054.30

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.43
Free cash flow (t + 1) 326.55
Terminal Value 5,078.55
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,388.38

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,442.69
Net Debt 1,163
Equity Value 3,279.69
Shares Outstanding 100.50
Equity Value Per Share 32.63