Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT)

$64.08

+1.18 (+1.88%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 14.68 | 64.08 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 699.39710.96670.88723.47769.59789.27809.46830.16851.39873.17
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 9.4522.494.52-5.3654.4718.1918.6619.1319.6220.13
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -2.3410.43-12.55-21.2343.523.133.213.293.383.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 11.7912.0617.0615.8810.9515.0615.4515.8416.2516.66
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 462.42458.33331.73397.24267.51425.73436.62447.78459.24470.98
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 162.12176.84146.99188.13194.24191.33196.22201.24206.39211.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.762.190.310.370.430.900.920.950.971
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -7.05-6.56-3.20-8.18-3.91-6.39-6.55-6.72-6.89-7.07
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 64.08
Beta 0.658
Diluted Shares Outstanding 47.22
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.55
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.53%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.994
Total Debt 16.05
Total Equity 3,025.86
Total Capital 3,041.91
Debt Weighting 0.53
Equity Weighting 99.47
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 699.39710.96670.88723.47769.59789.27809.46830.16851.39873.17
EBITDA 9.4522.494.52-5.3654.4718.1918.6619.1319.6220.13
EBIT -2.3410.43-12.55-21.2343.523.133.213.293.383.46
Tax Rate -1,668.57%65.85%55.01%-45.77%22.55%-314.19%-314.19%-314.19%-314.19%-314.19%
EBIAT -41.373.56-5.64-30.9533.7112.9613.2913.6313.9814.34
Depreciation 11.7912.0617.0615.8810.9515.0615.4515.8416.2516.66
Accounts Receivable --14.7229.85-41.14-6.112.91-4.89-5.02-5.15-5.28
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -1.42-1.880.070.060.470.020.020.020.02
Capital Expenditure -7.05-6.56-3.20-8.18-3.91-6.39-6.55-6.72-6.89-7.07
UFCF -36.63-4.2336.18-64.3234.6925.0117.3217.7618.2218.68
WACC
PV UFCF 23.6115.4214.9314.4513.98
SUM PV UFCF 82.38

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.97
Free cash flow (t + 1) 19.06
Terminal Value 480.03
Present Value of Terminal Value 359.21

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 441.59
Net Debt -251.46
Equity Value 693.05
Shares Outstanding 47.22
Equity Value Per Share 14.68