Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT)
$64.08
+1.18 (+1.88%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 699.39 | 710.96 | 670.88 | 723.47 | 769.59 | 789.27 | 809.46 | 830.16 | 851.39 | 873.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 9.45 | 22.49 | 4.52 | -5.36 | 54.47 | 18.19 | 18.66 | 19.13 | 19.62 | 20.13 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -2.34 | 10.43 | -12.55 | -21.23 | 43.52 | 3.13 | 3.21 | 3.29 | 3.38 | 3.46 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 11.79 | 12.06 | 17.06 | 15.88 | 10.95 | 15.06 | 15.45 | 15.84 | 16.25 | 16.66 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 462.42 | 458.33 | 331.73 | 397.24 | 267.51 | 425.73 | 436.62 | 447.78 | 459.24 | 470.98 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 162.12 | 176.84 | 146.99 | 188.13 | 194.24 | 191.33 | 196.22 | 201.24 | 206.39 | 211.67 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.76 | 2.19 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0.90 | 0.92 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 1 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -7.05 | -6.56 | -3.20 | -8.18 | -3.91 | -6.39 | -6.55 | -6.72 | -6.89 | -7.07 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 64.08 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.658 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 47.22 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.55 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.53% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.994 |
| Total Debt | 16.05 |
| Total Equity | 3,025.86 |
| Total Capital | 3,041.91 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.53 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.47 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 699.39 | 710.96 | 670.88 | 723.47 | 769.59 | 789.27 | 809.46 | 830.16 | 851.39 | 873.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 9.45 | 22.49 | 4.52 | -5.36 | 54.47 | 18.19 | 18.66 | 19.13 | 19.62 | 20.13 |
| EBIT | -2.34 | 10.43 | -12.55 | -21.23 | 43.52 | 3.13 | 3.21 | 3.29 | 3.38 | 3.46 |
| Tax Rate | -1,668.57% | 65.85% | 55.01% | -45.77% | 22.55% | -314.19% | -314.19% | -314.19% | -314.19% | -314.19% |
| EBIAT | -41.37 | 3.56 | -5.64 | -30.95 | 33.71 | 12.96 | 13.29 | 13.63 | 13.98 | 14.34 |
| Depreciation | 11.79 | 12.06 | 17.06 | 15.88 | 10.95 | 15.06 | 15.45 | 15.84 | 16.25 | 16.66 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -14.72 | 29.85 | -41.14 | -6.11 | 2.91 | -4.89 | -5.02 | -5.15 | -5.28 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.42 | -1.88 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.47 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Capital Expenditure | -7.05 | -6.56 | -3.20 | -8.18 | -3.91 | -6.39 | -6.55 | -6.72 | -6.89 | -7.07 |
| UFCF | -36.63 | -4.23 | 36.18 | -64.32 | 34.69 | 25.01 | 17.32 | 17.76 | 18.22 | 18.68 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 23.61 | 15.42 | 14.93 | 14.45 | 13.98 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 82.38 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.97 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 19.06 |
| Terminal Value | 480.03 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 359.21 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 441.59 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -251.46 |
| Equity Value | 693.05 |
| Shares Outstanding | 47.22 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 14.68 |