Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Chicago Rivet & Machine Co. (CVR)
$24.79
+0.27 (+1.10%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 37.17 | 32.87 | 27.59 | 33.97 | 33.65 | 33.19 | 32.73 | 32.28 | 31.84 | 31.41 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 3.86 | 2.21 | 1.51 | 2.75 | 4.93 | 3.01 | 2.97 | 2.93 | 2.89 | 2.85 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 2.56 | 0.83 | 0.16 | 1.43 | 3.65 | 1.66 | 1.64 | 1.62 | 1.60 | 1.57 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.31 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.28 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.29 | 1.27 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 7.77 | 8 | 7.30 | 4.78 | 4.05 | 6.49 | 6.40 | 6.31 | 6.23 | 6.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 5.53 | 4.61 | 5.16 | 5.65 | 4.98 | 5.24 | 5.17 | 5.10 | 5.03 | 4.96 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 6.10 | 4.95 | 5.15 | 8.52 | 9.12 | 6.79 | 6.70 | 6.61 | 6.52 | 6.43 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.06 | 0.49 | 0.47 | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2 | -1.80 | -0.82 | -0.67 | -0.97 | -1.24 | -1.22 | -1.21 | -1.19 | -1.17 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 24.79 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.018 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 0.97 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.49 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.93% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 3.893 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 23.95 |
| Total Capital | - |
| Debt Weighting | - |
| Equity Weighting | - |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 37.17 | 32.87 | 27.59 | 33.97 | 33.65 | 33.19 | 32.73 | 32.28 | 31.84 | 31.41 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 3.86 | 2.21 | 1.51 | 2.75 | 4.93 | 3.01 | 2.97 | 2.93 | 2.89 | 2.85 |
| EBIT | 2.56 | 0.83 | 0.16 | 1.43 | 3.65 | 1.66 | 1.64 | 1.62 | 1.60 | 1.57 |
| Tax Rate | 21.71% | 21.22% | 22.92% | 21.28% | 21.49% | 21.72% | 21.72% | 21.72% | 21.72% | 21.72% |
| EBIAT | 2 | 0.65 | 0.12 | 1.13 | 2.87 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.23 |
| Depreciation | 1.31 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.28 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.29 | 1.27 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.92 | -0.55 | -0.48 | 0.67 | -0.27 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Inventories | - | 1.15 | -0.20 | -3.37 | -0.60 | 2.33 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.57 | -0.02 | 0.23 | 0 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2 | -1.80 | -0.82 | -0.67 | -0.97 | -1.24 | -1.22 | -1.21 | -1.19 | -1.17 |
| UFCF | 1.31 | 1.73 | -0.13 | -1.85 | 3.25 | 3.44 | 1.54 | 1.52 | 1.50 | 1.48 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | - |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | - |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1.51 |
| Terminal Value | - |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | - |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | - |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -4.05 |
| Equity Value | - |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.97 |
| Equity Value Per Share | - |