Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CVS Health Corporation (CVS)

$76.31

-0.79 (-1.02%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 373.64 | 76.31 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 256,776268,706292,111322,467357,776388,811.21422,538.57459,191.59499,024.08542,311.83
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 16,48218,55819,67620,49819,05324,684.1226,825.3429,152.3031,681.1134,429.28
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 12,11114,11715,16416,25114,68718,900.9720,540.5322,322.3224,258.6626,362.98
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4,3714,4414,5124,2474,3665,783.156,284.816,829.987,422.458,066.31
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 8,05610,85412,52515,72311,45515,196.3416,514.5417,947.0919,503.9121,195.77
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 19,61721,74224,43127,27635,22732,970.6935,830.7238,938.8542,316.5945,987.34
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 17,51618,49617,76019,09018,02523,906.2925,980.0428,233.6830,682.8033,344.37
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 10,49211,13812,54414,83814,89716,55617,992.1519,552.8721,248.9823,092.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,457-2,437-2,520-2,727-3,031-3,436.57-3,734.68-4,058.64-4,410.71-4,793.32
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 76.31
Beta 0.490
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,290
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.32
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.17%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.564
Total Debt 79,385
Total Equity 98,439.90
Total Capital 177,824.90
Debt Weighting 44.64
Equity Weighting 55.36
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 256,776268,706292,111322,467357,776388,811.21422,538.57459,191.59499,024.08542,311.83
EBITDA 16,48218,55819,67620,49819,05324,684.1226,825.3429,152.3031,681.1134,429.28
EBIT 12,11114,11715,16416,25114,68718,900.9720,540.5322,322.3224,258.6626,362.98
Tax Rate 26.26%26.52%24.09%23.40%25.32%25.12%25.12%25.12%25.12%25.12%
EBIAT 8,930.1310,373.1811,511.2512,448.1310,968.2514,153.3015,381.0216,715.2518,165.2119,740.95
Depreciation 4,3714,4414,5124,2474,3665,783.156,284.816,829.987,422.458,066.31
Accounts Receivable --2,125-2,689-2,845-7,9512,256.32-2,860.04-3,108.13-3,377.74-3,670.74
Inventories --980736-1,3301,065-5,881.30-2,073.75-2,253.63-2,449.12-2,661.57
Accounts Payable -6461,4062,294591,6591,436.151,560.731,696.111,843.24
Capital Expenditure -2,457-2,437-2,520-2,727-3,031-3,436.57-3,734.68-4,058.64-4,410.71-4,793.32
UFCF 10,844.139,918.1812,956.2512,087.135,476.2614,533.9014,433.5215,685.5517,046.1918,524.86
WACC
PV UFCF 13,835.2213,079.1713,530.4313,997.2614,480.20
SUM PV UFCF 68,922.28

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.05
Free cash flow (t + 1) 18,895.36
Terminal Value 619,519.89
Present Value of Terminal Value 484,255.95

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 553,178.23
Net Debt 71,189
Equity Value 481,989.23
Shares Outstanding 1,290
Equity Value Per Share 373.64