Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CVS Health Corporation (CVS)

$93.94

+1.28 (+1.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 124.31 | 93.94 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 184,765194,579256,776268,706292,111329,087.04370,743.58417,673.09470,543.05530,105.39
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 11,8006,74516,40617,09612,92317,789.4720,041.3022,578.1825,436.1728,655.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 9,3214,02712,03512,6558,473.0112,776.1914,393.4316,215.3818,267.9620,580.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,4792,7184,3714,4414,449.995,013.285,647.876,362.797,168.218,075.58
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,8076,5818,05610,85412,52510,415.3711,733.7713,219.0614,892.3616,777.46
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13,18117,63119,61721,74224,43126,517.6629,874.3233,655.8837,916.1142,715.61
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 15,29616,45017,51618,49617,76024,034.8927,077.2830,504.7834,366.1338,716.27
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8,8638,92510,49211,13812,54414,419.9916,245.3118,301.6720,618.3423,228.25
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,918-2,037-2,457-2,437-2,520-3,166.77-3,567.62-4,019.22-4,527.98-5,101.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 93.94
Beta 0.772
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,314
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.20
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.03%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.534
Total Debt 93,263
Total Equity 123,437.16
Total Capital 216,700.16
Debt Weighting 43.04
Equity Weighting 56.96
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 184,765194,579256,776268,706292,111329,087.04370,743.58417,673.09470,543.05530,105.39
EBITDA 11,8006,74516,40617,09612,92317,789.4720,041.3022,578.1825,436.1728,655.93
EBIT 9,3214,02712,03512,6558,473.0112,776.1914,393.4316,215.3818,267.9620,580.36
Tax Rate 19.91%142.25%26.26%26.52%24.20%47.83%47.83%47.83%47.83%47.83%
EBIAT 7,465.37-1,701.318,874.099,298.906,422.256,665.517,509.248,459.789,530.6410,737.05
Depreciation 2,4792,7184,3714,4414,449.995,013.285,647.876,362.797,168.218,075.58
Accounts Receivable --4,450-1,986-2,125-2,689-2,086.66-3,356.66-3,781.56-4,260.23-4,799.50
Inventories --1,154-1,066-980736-6,274.89-3,042.39-3,427.50-3,861.36-4,350.14
Accounts Payable -621,5676461,4061,875.991,825.312,056.372,316.672,609.91
Capital Expenditure -1,918-2,037-2,457-2,437-2,520-3,166.77-3,567.62-4,019.22-4,527.98-5,101.14
UFCF 8,026.37-6,562.319,303.098,843.907,805.232,026.485,015.765,650.676,365.947,171.76
WACC
PV UFCF 1,937.364,584.314,937.475,317.855,727.53
SUM PV UFCF 22,504.51

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.60
Free cash flow (t + 1) 7,315.19
Terminal Value 281,353.52
Present Value of Terminal Value 224,695.27

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 247,199.79
Net Debt 83,855
Equity Value 163,344.79
Shares Outstanding 1,314
Equity Value Per Share 124.31