Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. (CX)

$5.435

+0.06 (+1.02%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 10.36 | 5.435 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	14,086.93	13,130	12,970	14,548	15,576.82	16,014.01	16,463.48	16,925.56	17,400.61	17,888.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,218.51	2,061	479	2,717	1,660.07	2,064.92	2,122.87	2,182.45	2,243.71	2,306.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,400.83	1,016	-638	1,590	540.07	869.87	894.28	919.38	945.19	971.72
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	817.67	1,045	1,117	1,127	1,120	1,195.05	1,228.59	1,263.07	1,298.52	1,334.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	308.75	788	950	613	494.92	733.72	754.32	775.49	797.25	819.63
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,800.66	1,845	2,003	1,647	2,179.56	2,164.81	2,225.57	2,288.03	2,352.25	2,418.27
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,081.14	989	971	1,261	1,668.66	1,347.55	1,385.37	1,424.25	1,464.22	1,505.32
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,536.26	2,526	2,571	2,762	2,961.58	3,044.70	3,130.15	3,218.01	3,308.33	3,401.18
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-776.36	-767	-591	-993	-1,060	-946.11	-972.67	-999.97	-1,028.03	-1,056.89
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 5.435
Beta	1.159
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,479.95
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-11.48
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.015
Total Debt	-
Total Equity	8,043.54
Total Capital	8,043.54
Debt Weighting	0.00
Equity Weighting	100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	14,086.93	13,130	12,970	14,548	15,576.82	16,014.01	16,463.48	16,925.56	17,400.61	17,888.99
EBITDA	2,218.51	2,061	479	2,717	1,660.07	2,064.92	2,122.87	2,182.45	2,243.71	2,306.68
EBIT	1,400.83	1,016	-638	1,590	540.07	869.87	894.28	919.38	945.19	971.72
Tax Rate	32.52%	43.48%	-15.15%	19.21%	-11.48%	13.72%	13.72%	13.72%	13.72%	13.72%
EBIAT	945.30	574.26	-734.65	1,284.62	602.05	750.56	771.63	793.29	815.55	838.44
Depreciation	817.67	1,045	1,117	1,127	1,120	1,195.05	1,228.59	1,263.07	1,298.52	1,334.97
Accounts Receivable	-	-44.34	-158	356	-532.56	14.75	-60.76	-62.47	-64.22	-66.02
Inventories	-	92.14	18	-290	-407.66	321.11	-37.82	-38.88	-39.97	-41.10
Accounts Payable	-	-10.26	45	191	199.58	83.12	85.46	87.85	90.32	92.85
Capital Expenditure	-776.36	-767	-591	-993	-1,060	-946.11	-972.67	-999.97	-1,028.03	-1,056.89
UFCF	986.61	889.80	-303.65	1,675.62	-78.58	1,418.48	1,014.42	1,042.90	1,072.17	1,102.26
WACC
PV UFCF						1,301.12	853.51	804.86	758.99	715.74
SUM PV UFCF										4,434.22

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.02
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,124.30
Terminal Value	16,015.73
Present Value of Terminal Value	10,399.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	14,833.80
Net Debt	-494.92
Equity Value	15,328.72
Shares Outstanding	1,479.95
Equity Value Per Share	10.36