Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Danaos Corporation (DAC)

$59.34

+2.10 (+3.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 505.31 | 59.34 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 451.73458.73447.24461.59689.50778.50878.98992.441,120.531,265.16
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 285.69160.53299.83308.581,217.03636.24718.37811.09915.781,033.98
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 170.4652.77203.32207.051,127.72471.94532.86601.64679.29766.97
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 115.23107.7696.51101.5389.30164.30185.51209.45236.48267.01
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 66.9077.28139.1765.66552.43244.63276.21311.86352.11397.56
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 40.5127.1927.6627.9837.9150.8257.3864.7973.1582.59
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 8.848.888.499.6212.5815.1017.0519.2621.7424.55
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 11.3710.4811.1710.6118.9319.2221.7024.5027.6631.23
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.48-8.25-21.36-170.66-355.72-149.67-168.99-190.80-215.43-243.24
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 59.34
Beta 1.582
Diluted Shares Outstanding 20.58
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.56
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.13%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.986
Total Debt 1,335.99
Total Equity 1,221.44
Total Capital 2,557.44
Debt Weighting 52.24
Equity Weighting 47.76
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 451.73458.73447.24461.59689.50778.50878.98992.441,120.531,265.16
EBITDA 285.69160.53299.83308.581,217.03636.24718.37811.09915.781,033.98
EBIT 170.4652.77203.32207.051,127.72471.94532.86601.64679.29766.97
Tax Rate 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.56%0.11%0.11%0.11%0.11%0.11%
EBIAT 170.4652.77203.32207.051,121.45471.42532.27600.97678.53766.11
Depreciation 115.23107.7696.51101.5389.30164.30185.51209.45236.48267.01
Accounts Receivable -13.31-0.46-0.32-9.93-12.91-6.56-7.41-8.36-9.44
Inventories --0.040.39-1.13-2.96-2.53-1.95-2.20-2.49-2.81
Accounts Payable --0.890.69-0.558.310.292.482.803.163.57
Capital Expenditure -4.48-8.25-21.36-170.66-355.72-149.67-168.99-190.80-215.43-243.24
UFCF 281.21164.65279.09135.92850.45470.90542.75612.81691.90781.21
WACC
PV UFCF 436.31465.93487.41509.89533.40
SUM PV UFCF 2,432.94

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) 796.83
Terminal Value 13,437.33
Present Value of Terminal Value 9,174.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 11,607.86
Net Debt 1,206.58
Equity Value 10,401.27
Shares Outstanding 20.58
Equity Value Per Share 505.31