Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Danaos Corporation (DAC)
$59.34
+2.10 (+3.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 451.73 | 458.73 | 447.24 | 461.59 | 689.50 | 778.50 | 878.98 | 992.44 | 1,120.53 | 1,265.16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 285.69 | 160.53 | 299.83 | 308.58 | 1,217.03 | 636.24 | 718.37 | 811.09 | 915.78 | 1,033.98 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 170.46 | 52.77 | 203.32 | 207.05 | 1,127.72 | 471.94 | 532.86 | 601.64 | 679.29 | 766.97 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 115.23 | 107.76 | 96.51 | 101.53 | 89.30 | 164.30 | 185.51 | 209.45 | 236.48 | 267.01 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 66.90 | 77.28 | 139.17 | 65.66 | 552.43 | 244.63 | 276.21 | 311.86 | 352.11 | 397.56 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 40.51 | 27.19 | 27.66 | 27.98 | 37.91 | 50.82 | 57.38 | 64.79 | 73.15 | 82.59 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 8.84 | 8.88 | 8.49 | 9.62 | 12.58 | 15.10 | 17.05 | 19.26 | 21.74 | 24.55 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 11.37 | 10.48 | 11.17 | 10.61 | 18.93 | 19.22 | 21.70 | 24.50 | 27.66 | 31.23 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4.48 | -8.25 | -21.36 | -170.66 | -355.72 | -149.67 | -168.99 | -190.80 | -215.43 | -243.24 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 59.34 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.582 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 20.58 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.56 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.13% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.986 |
| Total Debt | 1,335.99 |
| Total Equity | 1,221.44 |
| Total Capital | 2,557.44 |
| Debt Weighting | 52.24 |
| Equity Weighting | 47.76 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 451.73 | 458.73 | 447.24 | 461.59 | 689.50 | 778.50 | 878.98 | 992.44 | 1,120.53 | 1,265.16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 285.69 | 160.53 | 299.83 | 308.58 | 1,217.03 | 636.24 | 718.37 | 811.09 | 915.78 | 1,033.98 |
| EBIT | 170.46 | 52.77 | 203.32 | 207.05 | 1,127.72 | 471.94 | 532.86 | 601.64 | 679.29 | 766.97 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.56% | 0.11% | 0.11% | 0.11% | 0.11% | 0.11% |
| EBIAT | 170.46 | 52.77 | 203.32 | 207.05 | 1,121.45 | 471.42 | 532.27 | 600.97 | 678.53 | 766.11 |
| Depreciation | 115.23 | 107.76 | 96.51 | 101.53 | 89.30 | 164.30 | 185.51 | 209.45 | 236.48 | 267.01 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 13.31 | -0.46 | -0.32 | -9.93 | -12.91 | -6.56 | -7.41 | -8.36 | -9.44 |
| Inventories | - | -0.04 | 0.39 | -1.13 | -2.96 | -2.53 | -1.95 | -2.20 | -2.49 | -2.81 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.89 | 0.69 | -0.55 | 8.31 | 0.29 | 2.48 | 2.80 | 3.16 | 3.57 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4.48 | -8.25 | -21.36 | -170.66 | -355.72 | -149.67 | -168.99 | -190.80 | -215.43 | -243.24 |
| UFCF | 281.21 | 164.65 | 279.09 | 135.92 | 850.45 | 470.90 | 542.75 | 612.81 | 691.90 | 781.21 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 436.31 | 465.93 | 487.41 | 509.89 | 533.40 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 2,432.94 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.93 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 796.83 |
| Terminal Value | 13,437.33 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 9,174.92 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 11,607.86 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,206.58 |
| Equity Value | 10,401.27 |
| Shares Outstanding | 20.58 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 505.31 |