Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Dana Incorporated (DAN)

$17.55

+0.62 (+3.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 31.36 | 17.55 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 7,2098,1438,6207,1068,9459,551.6810,199.5210,891.2911,629.9812,418.77
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 729871655530789853.66911.56973.381,039.401,109.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 496601316165400472.24504.27538.48575614
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 233270339365389381.41407.28434.91464.40495.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 643531527580285628.54671.17716.70765.31817.21
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,1661,2431,3051,4321,5411,603.871,712.651,828.811,952.852,085.30
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 9691,0311,1931,1491,5641,405.941,501.301,603.131,711.861,827.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,1651,2171,2551,3311,5711,565.681,671.871,785.271,906.352,035.64
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -393-325-426-326-369-441.24-471.17-503.12-537.25-573.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17.55
Beta 2.272
Diluted Shares Outstanding 144.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.26
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.575
Total Debt 2,669
Total Equity 2,535.97
Total Capital 5,204.98
Debt Weighting 51.28
Equity Weighting 48.72
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 7,2098,1438,6207,1068,9459,551.6810,199.5210,891.2911,629.9812,418.77
EBITDA 729871655530789853.66911.56973.381,039.401,109.90
EBIT 496601316165400472.24504.27538.48575614
Tax Rate 70.79%13.56%-32.16%-138.46%19.26%-13.40%-13.40%-13.40%-13.40%-13.40%
EBIAT 144.88519.49417.64393.46322.95535.54571.86610.64652.06696.29
Depreciation 233270339365389381.41407.28434.91464.40495.90
Accounts Receivable --77-62-127-109-62.87-108.78-116.16-124.04-132.45
Inventories --62-16244-415158.06-95.36-101.82-108.73-116.10
Accounts Payable -523876240-5.32106.19113.39121.08129.30
Capital Expenditure -393-325-426-326-369-441.24-471.17-503.12-537.25-573.69
UFCF -15.12377.49144.64425.4658.95565.57410.03437.84467.53499.24
WACC
PV UFCF 520.55347.34341.37335.50329.73
SUM PV UFCF 1,874.49

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.65
Free cash flow (t + 1) 509.23
Terminal Value 7,657.55
Present Value of Terminal Value 5,057.56

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 6,932.05
Net Debt 2,401
Equity Value 4,531.05
Shares Outstanding 144.50
Equity Value Per Share 31.36