Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Dana Incorporated (DAN)
$17.55
+0.62 (+3.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 7,209 | 8,143 | 8,620 | 7,106 | 8,945 | 9,551.68 | 10,199.52 | 10,891.29 | 11,629.98 | 12,418.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 729 | 871 | 655 | 530 | 789 | 853.66 | 911.56 | 973.38 | 1,039.40 | 1,109.90 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 496 | 601 | 316 | 165 | 400 | 472.24 | 504.27 | 538.48 | 575 | 614 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 233 | 270 | 339 | 365 | 389 | 381.41 | 407.28 | 434.91 | 464.40 | 495.90 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 643 | 531 | 527 | 580 | 285 | 628.54 | 671.17 | 716.70 | 765.31 | 817.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1,166 | 1,243 | 1,305 | 1,432 | 1,541 | 1,603.87 | 1,712.65 | 1,828.81 | 1,952.85 | 2,085.30 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 969 | 1,031 | 1,193 | 1,149 | 1,564 | 1,405.94 | 1,501.30 | 1,603.13 | 1,711.86 | 1,827.96 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1,165 | 1,217 | 1,255 | 1,331 | 1,571 | 1,565.68 | 1,671.87 | 1,785.27 | 1,906.35 | 2,035.64 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -393 | -325 | -426 | -326 | -369 | -441.24 | -471.17 | -503.12 | -537.25 | -573.69 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.55 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.272 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 144.50 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 19.26 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.96% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 13.575 |
| Total Debt | 2,669 |
| Total Equity | 2,535.97 |
| Total Capital | 5,204.98 |
| Debt Weighting | 51.28 |
| Equity Weighting | 48.72 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 7,209 | 8,143 | 8,620 | 7,106 | 8,945 | 9,551.68 | 10,199.52 | 10,891.29 | 11,629.98 | 12,418.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 729 | 871 | 655 | 530 | 789 | 853.66 | 911.56 | 973.38 | 1,039.40 | 1,109.90 |
| EBIT | 496 | 601 | 316 | 165 | 400 | 472.24 | 504.27 | 538.48 | 575 | 614 |
| Tax Rate | 70.79% | 13.56% | -32.16% | -138.46% | 19.26% | -13.40% | -13.40% | -13.40% | -13.40% | -13.40% |
| EBIAT | 144.88 | 519.49 | 417.64 | 393.46 | 322.95 | 535.54 | 571.86 | 610.64 | 652.06 | 696.29 |
| Depreciation | 233 | 270 | 339 | 365 | 389 | 381.41 | 407.28 | 434.91 | 464.40 | 495.90 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -77 | -62 | -127 | -109 | -62.87 | -108.78 | -116.16 | -124.04 | -132.45 |
| Inventories | - | -62 | -162 | 44 | -415 | 158.06 | -95.36 | -101.82 | -108.73 | -116.10 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 52 | 38 | 76 | 240 | -5.32 | 106.19 | 113.39 | 121.08 | 129.30 |
| Capital Expenditure | -393 | -325 | -426 | -326 | -369 | -441.24 | -471.17 | -503.12 | -537.25 | -573.69 |
| UFCF | -15.12 | 377.49 | 144.64 | 425.46 | 58.95 | 565.57 | 410.03 | 437.84 | 467.53 | 499.24 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 520.55 | 347.34 | 341.37 | 335.50 | 329.73 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,874.49 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.65 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 509.23 |
| Terminal Value | 7,657.55 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 5,057.56 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 6,932.05 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,401 |
| Equity Value | 4,531.05 |
| Shares Outstanding | 144.50 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 31.36 |