Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR)

$72.99

-0.07 (-0.10%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 9.48 | 72.99 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,662.253,387.733,363.903,2263,093.742,966.912,845.282,728.642,616.772,509.492,406.61
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 487.04522.85776.25557.11534.27512.37491.36471.22451.90433.38415.61
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 184.94201.66450.74262.40251.64241.33231.43221.95212.85204.12195.75
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 302.10321.19325.51294.71282.63271.04259.93249.28239.06229.26219.86
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 106.77107.2672.9488.7185.0881.5978.2475.0471.9669.0166.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 396.36392.20409.66371.83356.58341.96327.94314.50301.61289.24277.38
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 358.18341.03362.96329.45315.94302.99290.57278.65267.23256.28245.77
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 217.42219.48239.25209.99201.38193.12185.21177.61170.33163.35156.65
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -281.30-325.78-363.15-302.09-289.71-277.83-266.44-255.52-245.04-235-225.36
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 72.99
Beta 1.201
Diluted Shares Outstanding 167.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.76
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.426
Total Debt 1,621.86
Total Equity 12,196.34
Total Capital 13,818.20
Debt Weighting 11.74
Equity Weighting 88.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,662.253,387.733,363.903,2263,093.742,966.912,845.282,728.642,616.772,509.492,406.61
EBITDA 487.04522.85776.25557.11534.27512.37491.36471.22451.90433.38415.61
EBIT 184.94201.66450.74262.40251.64241.33231.43221.95212.85204.12195.75
Tax Rate -100.11%13.97%17.83%-6.30%16.06%20.76%-6.30%-6.30%-6.30%-6.30%-6.30%
EBIAT 370.08173.49370.37278.93211.22191.24246.01235.92226.25216.98208.08
Depreciation 302.10321.19325.51294.71282.63271.04259.93249.28239.06229.26219.86
Accounts Receivable -4.16-17.4637.8315.2414.6214.0213.4412.8912.3611.86
Inventories -17.16-21.9333.5113.5112.9512.4211.9111.4210.9610.51
Accounts Payable -2.0619.77-29.26-8.61-8.26-7.92-7.59-7.28-6.98-6.70
Capital Expenditure -281.30-325.78-363.15-302.09-283.93-274.40-266.44-255.52-245.04-235-225.36
UFCF 390.87192.28313.12313.62224.28203.77258.02247.44237.30227.57218.24
WACC
PV UFCF 340.84224.28187.49218.45192.76170.10150.10132.45
SUM PV UFCF 938.84

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) 222.61
Terminal Value 3,332.43
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,197.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,136.76
Net Debt 1,552.96
Equity Value 1,583.81
Shares Outstanding 167.10
Equity Value Per Share 9.48