Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI)
$59.34
+1.18 (+2.03%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 2,734.20 | 2,844.90 | 2,581.80 | 2,853.90 | 3,306.60 | 3,481.87 | 3,666.43 | 3,860.77 | 4,065.41 | 4,280.90 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 461.60 | 476.20 | 440.20 | 489.30 | 547.10 | 587.47 | 618.61 | 651.40 | 685.93 | 722.29 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 384.90 | 395.10 | 352.60 | 394 | 453.30 | 481.45 | 506.97 | 533.84 | 562.14 | 591.94 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 76.70 | 81.10 | 87.60 | 95.30 | 93.80 | 106.02 | 111.64 | 117.56 | 123.79 | 130.35 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 204.70 | 177.80 | 236.60 | 222.80 | 193.30 | 254.55 | 268.04 | 282.25 | 297.21 | 312.96 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 534.60 | 529.50 | 455.30 | 552.70 | 616.60 | 653.29 | 687.92 | 724.39 | 762.78 | 803.21 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 334.10 | 332.80 | 322.70 | 384.50 | 502.40 | 453.22 | 477.24 | 502.54 | 529.18 | 557.23 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 201.30 | 237.50 | 187.70 | 293.90 | 338.50 | 303.03 | 319.10 | 336.01 | 353.82 | 372.58 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -97.50 | -150.70 | -124.40 | -59 | -85.50 | -127.68 | -134.44 | -141.57 | -149.08 | -156.98 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 59.34 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.209 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 125.20 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 24.09 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.75% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.419 |
Total Debt | 648 |
Total Equity | 7,429.37 |
Total Capital | 8,077.37 |
Debt Weighting | 8.02 |
Equity Weighting | 91.98 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 2,734.20 | 2,844.90 | 2,581.80 | 2,853.90 | 3,306.60 | 3,481.87 | 3,666.43 | 3,860.77 | 4,065.41 | 4,280.90 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 461.60 | 476.20 | 440.20 | 489.30 | 547.10 | 587.47 | 618.61 | 651.40 | 685.93 | 722.29 |
EBIT | 384.90 | 395.10 | 352.60 | 394 | 453.30 | 481.45 | 506.97 | 533.84 | 562.14 | 591.94 |
Tax Rate | 50.41% | 28.78% | 23.33% | 24.70% | 24.09% | 30.26% | 30.26% | 30.26% | 30.26% | 30.26% |
EBIAT | 190.86 | 281.37 | 270.34 | 296.69 | 344.11 | 335.75 | 353.55 | 372.29 | 392.02 | 412.80 |
Depreciation | 76.70 | 81.10 | 87.60 | 95.30 | 93.80 | 106.02 | 111.64 | 117.56 | 123.79 | 130.35 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 5.10 | 74.20 | -97.40 | -63.90 | -36.69 | -34.63 | -36.46 | -38.40 | -40.43 |
Inventories | - | 1.30 | 10.10 | -61.80 | -117.90 | 49.18 | -24.02 | -25.30 | -26.64 | -28.05 |
Accounts Payable | - | 36.20 | -49.80 | 106.20 | 44.60 | -35.47 | 16.06 | 16.91 | 17.81 | 18.75 |
Capital Expenditure | -97.50 | -150.70 | -124.40 | -59 | -85.50 | -127.68 | -134.44 | -141.57 | -149.08 | -156.98 |
UFCF | 170.06 | 254.37 | 268.04 | 279.99 | 215.21 | 291.12 | 288.16 | 303.43 | 319.52 | 336.45 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 267.57 | 243.43 | 235.60 | 228.02 | 220.69 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,195.31 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.80 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 343.18 |
Terminal Value | 5,046.78 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,310.32 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 4,505.63 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 454.70 |
Equity Value | 4,050.93 |
Shares Outstanding | 125.20 |
Equity Value Per Share | 32.36 |