Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)

$43.86

+0.82 (+1.91%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 143.63 | 43.86 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 558.18629.31721.09628.94645.41673.11702732.13763.55796.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 38.7148.5984.3674.48210.0695.2499.33103.59108.03112.67
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 15.8723.3056.0545.63181.6766.9469.8172.8175.9379.19
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 22.8525.3028.3028.8528.3928.3029.5230.7832.1033.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2.1510.2639.5856.4776.3238.1139.7441.4543.2345.08
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 74.06154.48173.80212.05248.67180.61188.37196.45204.88213.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 122.16101.12112.48129.22150.94131.24136.87142.74148.87155.26
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 51.9169.2782.6063.9866.0670.2373.2576.3979.6783.09
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -27.61-17.62-18.29-12.51-16.86-20.04-20.90-21.79-22.73-23.70
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 43.86
Beta 1.295
Diluted Shares Outstanding 11.93
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.50
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.77%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.001
Total Debt 320.59
Total Equity 523.34
Total Capital 843.93
Debt Weighting 37.99
Equity Weighting 62.01
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 558.18629.31721.09628.94645.41673.11702732.13763.55796.32
EBITDA 38.7148.5984.3674.48210.0695.2499.33103.59108.03112.67
EBIT 15.8723.3056.0545.63181.6766.9469.8172.8175.9379.19
Tax Rate -163.86%12.03%14.04%8.78%20.50%-21.70%-21.70%-21.70%-21.70%-21.70%
EBIAT 41.8720.4948.1841.63144.4381.4684.9688.6192.4196.37
Depreciation 22.8525.3028.3028.8528.3928.3029.5230.7832.1033.48
Accounts Receivable --80.42-19.32-38.25-36.6168.05-7.75-8.08-8.43-8.79
Inventories -21.04-11.36-16.74-21.7219.70-5.63-5.87-6.13-6.39
Accounts Payable -17.3713.32-18.622.084.173.013.143.283.42
Capital Expenditure -27.61-17.62-18.29-12.51-16.86-20.04-20.90-21.79-22.73-23.70
UFCF 37.11-13.8540.85-15.6499.71181.6583.2186.7890.5094.39
WACC
PV UFCF 170.3473.1771.5669.9868.44
SUM PV UFCF 453.49

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.64
Free cash flow (t + 1) 96.28
Terminal Value 2,074.93
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,504.54

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,958.03
Net Debt 244.28
Equity Value 1,713.76
Shares Outstanding 11.93
Equity Value Per Share 143.63