Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)
$43.86
+0.82 (+1.91%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 558.18 | 629.31 | 721.09 | 628.94 | 645.41 | 673.11 | 702 | 732.13 | 763.55 | 796.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 38.71 | 48.59 | 84.36 | 74.48 | 210.06 | 95.24 | 99.33 | 103.59 | 108.03 | 112.67 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 15.87 | 23.30 | 56.05 | 45.63 | 181.67 | 66.94 | 69.81 | 72.81 | 75.93 | 79.19 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 22.85 | 25.30 | 28.30 | 28.85 | 28.39 | 28.30 | 29.52 | 30.78 | 32.10 | 33.48 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2.15 | 10.26 | 39.58 | 56.47 | 76.32 | 38.11 | 39.74 | 41.45 | 43.23 | 45.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 74.06 | 154.48 | 173.80 | 212.05 | 248.67 | 180.61 | 188.37 | 196.45 | 204.88 | 213.67 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 122.16 | 101.12 | 112.48 | 129.22 | 150.94 | 131.24 | 136.87 | 142.74 | 148.87 | 155.26 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 51.91 | 69.27 | 82.60 | 63.98 | 66.06 | 70.23 | 73.25 | 76.39 | 79.67 | 83.09 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -27.61 | -17.62 | -18.29 | -12.51 | -16.86 | -20.04 | -20.90 | -21.79 | -22.73 | -23.70 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 43.86 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.295 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 11.93 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.50 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.77% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.001 |
| Total Debt | 320.59 |
| Total Equity | 523.34 |
| Total Capital | 843.93 |
| Debt Weighting | 37.99 |
| Equity Weighting | 62.01 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 558.18 | 629.31 | 721.09 | 628.94 | 645.41 | 673.11 | 702 | 732.13 | 763.55 | 796.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 38.71 | 48.59 | 84.36 | 74.48 | 210.06 | 95.24 | 99.33 | 103.59 | 108.03 | 112.67 |
| EBIT | 15.87 | 23.30 | 56.05 | 45.63 | 181.67 | 66.94 | 69.81 | 72.81 | 75.93 | 79.19 |
| Tax Rate | -163.86% | 12.03% | 14.04% | 8.78% | 20.50% | -21.70% | -21.70% | -21.70% | -21.70% | -21.70% |
| EBIAT | 41.87 | 20.49 | 48.18 | 41.63 | 144.43 | 81.46 | 84.96 | 88.61 | 92.41 | 96.37 |
| Depreciation | 22.85 | 25.30 | 28.30 | 28.85 | 28.39 | 28.30 | 29.52 | 30.78 | 32.10 | 33.48 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -80.42 | -19.32 | -38.25 | -36.61 | 68.05 | -7.75 | -8.08 | -8.43 | -8.79 |
| Inventories | - | 21.04 | -11.36 | -16.74 | -21.72 | 19.70 | -5.63 | -5.87 | -6.13 | -6.39 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 17.37 | 13.32 | -18.62 | 2.08 | 4.17 | 3.01 | 3.14 | 3.28 | 3.42 |
| Capital Expenditure | -27.61 | -17.62 | -18.29 | -12.51 | -16.86 | -20.04 | -20.90 | -21.79 | -22.73 | -23.70 |
| UFCF | 37.11 | -13.85 | 40.85 | -15.64 | 99.71 | 181.65 | 83.21 | 86.78 | 90.50 | 94.39 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 170.34 | 73.17 | 71.56 | 69.98 | 68.44 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 453.49 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.64 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 96.28 |
| Terminal Value | 2,074.93 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,504.54 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,958.03 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 244.28 |
| Equity Value | 1,713.76 |
| Shares Outstanding | 11.93 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 143.63 |