Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)

$379.65

-5.84 (-1.51%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 366.54 | 379.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	6,422.68	6,503.35	6,343.21	4,433.18	6,624.27	6,924.13	7,237.57	7,565.19	7,907.64	8,265.60
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	510.63	487.39	405.69	112.52	1,334.74	616.63	644.55	673.72	704.22	736.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	276.95	261.54	181.38	-103.79	1,133.30	359.50	375.78	392.79	410.57	429.15
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	233.68	225.85	224.31	216.31	201.44	257.13	268.77	280.94	293.65	306.95
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	187.03	123.51	277.08	360.34	716.76	389.52	407.15	425.58	444.85	464.98
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	39.65	49.85	46.16	155.13	39.78	86.02	89.91	93.98	98.24	102.68
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,463.56	1,528.42	1,465.01	1,087.76	1,080.18	1,526.47	1,595.57	1,667.80	1,743.29	1,822.21
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	642.22	743.33	713.46	564.50	628.99	760.35	794.77	830.74	868.35	907.65
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-130.46	-137.06	-103.38	-60.45	-104.36	-120.59	-126.05	-131.75	-137.72	-143.95
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 379.65
Beta	0.848
Diluted Shares Outstanding	20.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	20.76
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.85%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.519
Total Debt	608.73
Total Equity	7,820.79
Total Capital	8,429.52
Debt Weighting	7.22
Equity Weighting	92.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	6,422.68	6,503.35	6,343.21	4,433.18	6,624.27	6,924.13	7,237.57	7,565.19	7,907.64	8,265.60
EBITDA	510.63	487.39	405.69	112.52	1,334.74	616.63	644.55	673.72	704.22	736.10
EBIT	276.95	261.54	181.38	-103.79	1,133.30	359.50	375.78	392.79	410.57	429.15
Tax Rate	-4.06%	18.13%	17.04%	53.29%	20.76%	21.03%	21.03%	21.03%	21.03%	21.03%
EBIAT	288.19	214.13	150.48	-48.48	898.08	283.90	296.75	310.18	324.22	338.90
Depreciation	233.68	225.85	224.31	216.31	201.44	257.13	268.77	280.94	293.65	306.95
Accounts Receivable	-	-10.20	3.69	-108.97	115.35	-46.24	-3.89	-4.07	-4.25	-4.45
Inventories	-	-64.86	63.41	377.24	7.59	-446.29	-69.10	-72.23	-75.50	-78.91
Accounts Payable	-	101.11	-29.87	-148.96	64.49	131.36	34.42	35.98	37.61	39.31
Capital Expenditure	-130.46	-137.06	-103.38	-60.45	-104.36	-120.59	-126.05	-131.75	-137.72	-143.95
UFCF	391.41	328.97	308.64	226.69	1,182.59	59.27	400.90	419.05	438.02	457.85
WACC
PV UFCF						55.19	347.56	338.26	329.21	320.40
SUM PV UFCF										1,390.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.40
Free cash flow (t + 1)	467
Terminal Value	8,648.19
Present Value of Terminal Value	6,052.07

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	7,442.69
Net Debt	-108.03
Equity Value	7,550.72
Shares Outstanding	20.60
Equity Value Per Share	366.54