Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)

$379.65

-5.84 (-1.51%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 366.54 | 379.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,422.686,503.356,343.214,433.186,624.276,924.137,237.577,565.197,907.648,265.60
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 510.63487.39405.69112.521,334.74616.63644.55673.72704.22736.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 276.95261.54181.38-103.791,133.30359.50375.78392.79410.57429.15
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 233.68225.85224.31216.31201.44257.13268.77280.94293.65306.95
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 187.03123.51277.08360.34716.76389.52407.15425.58444.85464.98
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 39.6549.8546.16155.1339.7886.0289.9193.9898.24102.68
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,463.561,528.421,465.011,087.761,080.181,526.471,595.571,667.801,743.291,822.21
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 642.22743.33713.46564.50628.99760.35794.77830.74868.35907.65
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -130.46-137.06-103.38-60.45-104.36-120.59-126.05-131.75-137.72-143.95
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 379.65
Beta 0.848
Diluted Shares Outstanding 20.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.76
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.85%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.519
Total Debt 608.73
Total Equity 7,820.79
Total Capital 8,429.52
Debt Weighting 7.22
Equity Weighting 92.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,422.686,503.356,343.214,433.186,624.276,924.137,237.577,565.197,907.648,265.60
EBITDA 510.63487.39405.69112.521,334.74616.63644.55673.72704.22736.10
EBIT 276.95261.54181.38-103.791,133.30359.50375.78392.79410.57429.15
Tax Rate -4.06%18.13%17.04%53.29%20.76%21.03%21.03%21.03%21.03%21.03%
EBIAT 288.19214.13150.48-48.48898.08283.90296.75310.18324.22338.90
Depreciation 233.68225.85224.31216.31201.44257.13268.77280.94293.65306.95
Accounts Receivable --10.203.69-108.97115.35-46.24-3.89-4.07-4.25-4.45
Inventories --64.8663.41377.247.59-446.29-69.10-72.23-75.50-78.91
Accounts Payable -101.11-29.87-148.9664.49131.3634.4235.9837.6139.31
Capital Expenditure -130.46-137.06-103.38-60.45-104.36-120.59-126.05-131.75-137.72-143.95
UFCF 391.41328.97308.64226.691,182.5959.27400.90419.05438.02457.85
WACC
PV UFCF 55.19347.56338.26329.21320.40
SUM PV UFCF 1,390.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) 467
Terminal Value 8,648.19
Present Value of Terminal Value 6,052.07

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 7,442.69
Net Debt -108.03
Equity Value 7,550.72
Shares Outstanding 20.60
Equity Value Per Share 366.54