Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Diageo plc (DEO)

$152.76

+0.47 (+0.31%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 38.06 | 152.76 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 12,86711,75212,73315,45217,11318,472.8619,940.7721,525.3323,235.8025,082.19
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4,4974,5474,1985,1665,6596,395.736,903.967,452.578,044.778,684.04
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4,1233,5033,7514,7125,2035,623.436,070.296,552.657,073.357,635.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3741,044447454456772.30833.67899.91971.421,048.62
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 1,0563,3962,7952,4211,6373,114.113,361.573,628.693,917.044,228.30
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,759.541,856.142,513.382,623.222,553.883,283.743,544.683,826.354,130.414,458.62
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5,4725,7726,0457,0947,6618,489.929,164.569,892.8110,678.9211,527.50
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,6941,3332,0142,7052,6592,710.672,926.073,158.593,409.583,680.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -671-700-626-1,097-1,180-1,111.42-1,199.73-1,295.07-1,397.98-1,509.07
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 152.76
Beta 0.324
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,271
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.16
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.856
Total Debt 16,950
Total Equity 346,917.96
Total Capital 363,867.96
Debt Weighting 4.66
Equity Weighting 95.34
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 12,86711,75212,73315,45217,11318,472.8619,940.7721,525.3323,235.8025,082.19
EBITDA 4,4974,5474,1985,1665,6596,395.736,903.967,452.578,044.778,684.04
EBIT 4,1233,5033,7514,7125,2035,623.436,070.296,552.657,073.357,635.42
Tax Rate 25.38%31.03%28.22%25.94%21.16%26.35%26.35%26.35%26.35%26.35%
EBIAT 3,076.432,415.922,692.303,489.694,102.204,141.794,470.914,826.185,209.695,623.67
Depreciation 3741,044447454456772.30833.67899.91971.421,048.62
Accounts Receivable -903.40-657.24-109.8469.34-729.86-260.94-281.67-304.05-328.22
Inventories --300-273-1,049-567-828.92-674.64-728.25-786.11-848.58
Accounts Payable --361681691-4651.67215.40232.52250.99270.94
Capital Expenditure -671-700-626-1,097-1,180-1,111.42-1,199.73-1,295.07-1,397.98-1,509.07
UFCF 2,779.433,002.322,264.062,378.862,834.542,295.563,384.673,653.623,943.954,257.35
WACC
PV UFCF 2,170.533,026.033,088.593,152.433,217.60
SUM PV UFCF 14,655.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4,342.50
Terminal Value 115,492.03
Present Value of Terminal Value 87,286.04

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 101,941.23
Net Debt 15,511
Equity Value 86,430.23
Shares Outstanding 2,271
Equity Value Per Share 38.06