Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Dollar General Corporation (DG)

$210.76

+1.93 (+0.92%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 476.34 | 210.76 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	23,470.97	25,625.04	27,753.97	33,746.84	34,220.45	37,683.72	41,497.49	45,697.23	50,322	55,414.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,408.55	2,569.42	2,807.11	4,129	3,861.99	4,064.11	4,475.41	4,928.35	5,427.12	5,976.37
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,004.32	2,115.29	2,302.30	3,554.77	3,220.68	3,394.16	3,737.67	4,115.94	4,532.49	4,991.20
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	404.23	454.13	504.80	574.24	641.32	669.94	737.74	812.41	894.63	985.17
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	267.44	235.49	240.32	1,376.58	344.83	603.78	664.88	732.17	806.27	887.87
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	108.26	57.80	76.54	90.76	97.39	114.27	125.83	138.57	152.59	168.04
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	3,609.02	4,097	4,676.85	5,247.48	5,614.32	6,042.34	6,653.86	7,327.26	8,068.81	8,885.41
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,009.77	2,385.47	2,860.68	3,614.09	3,738.60	3,754.33	4,134.29	4,552.69	5,013.45	5,520.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-646.46	-734.38	-784.84	-1,027.96	-1,070.46	-1,102.04	-1,213.57	-1,336.39	-1,471.64	-1,620.58
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 210.76
Beta	0.334
Diluted Shares Outstanding	235.81
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	21.67
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.074
Total Debt	14,246.34
Total Equity	49,699.74
Total Capital	63,946.07
Debt Weighting	22.28
Equity Weighting	77.72
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	23,470.97	25,625.04	27,753.97	33,746.84	34,220.45	37,683.72	41,497.49	45,697.23	50,322	55,414.82
EBITDA	2,408.55	2,569.42	2,807.11	4,129	3,861.99	4,064.11	4,475.41	4,928.35	5,427.12	5,976.37
EBIT	2,004.32	2,115.29	2,302.30	3,554.77	3,220.68	3,394.16	3,737.67	4,115.94	4,532.49	4,991.20
Tax Rate	19.31%	21.13%	22.22%	22.01%	21.67%	21.27%	21.27%	21.27%	21.27%	21.27%
EBIAT	1,617.26	1,668.24	1,790.78	2,772.33	2,522.62	2,672.24	2,942.68	3,240.49	3,568.45	3,929.59
Depreciation	404.23	454.13	504.80	574.24	641.32	669.94	737.74	812.41	894.63	985.17
Accounts Receivable	-	50.46	-18.73	-14.22	-6.63	-16.88	-11.56	-12.74	-14.02	-15.44
Inventories	-	-487.98	-579.84	-570.63	-366.85	-428.02	-611.51	-673.40	-741.55	-816.60
Accounts Payable	-	375.70	475.21	753.41	124.51	15.73	379.96	418.41	460.75	507.38
Capital Expenditure	-646.46	-734.38	-784.84	-1,027.96	-1,070.46	-1,102.04	-1,213.57	-1,336.39	-1,471.64	-1,620.58
UFCF	1,375.03	1,326.17	1,387.38	2,487.16	1,844.50	1,810.97	2,223.73	2,448.78	2,696.61	2,969.52
WACC
PV UFCF						1,738.98	2,050.44	2,168.19	2,292.70	2,424.37
SUM PV UFCF										10,674.67

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.14
Free cash flow (t + 1)	3,028.91
Terminal Value	141,537.76
Present Value of Terminal Value	115,553.86

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	126,228.53
Net Debt	13,901.51
Equity Value	112,327.02
Shares Outstanding	235.81
Equity Value Per Share	476.34