Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

DiDi Global Inc. (DIDI)

$2.29

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -89.54 | 2.29 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 21,646.0824,765.7822,677.7827,812.3830,465.9533,372.6936,556.7640,044.6243,865.26
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -2,026.09-959.11-865.96-6,856.71-3,176.44-3,479.50-3,811.48-4,175.13-4,573.48
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -2,471.62-1,600.98-1,709.02-7,823.96-4,078.64-4,467.78-4,894.04-5,360.98-5,872.47
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 445.53641.87843.05967.25902.19988.271,082.561,185.851,298.99
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 8,437.118,664.169,083.149,083.7611,171.5412,237.4113,404.9814,683.9416,084.93
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 862.71984.471,237.911,472.281,425.271,561.261,710.211,873.382,052.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 24.5832.2041.8531.6741.2845.2249.5354.2659.43
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 521.62559.88717.99529.02741.74812.51890.03974.951,067.97
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -877.39-360.40-927.86-1,059.23-1,021.26-1,118.70-1,225.43-1,342.35-1,470.42
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.29
Beta 0.000
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,631.99
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.34
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.26%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.262
Total Debt 1,550.63
Total Equity 6,027.25
Total Capital 7,577.88
Debt Weighting 20.46
Equity Weighting 79.54
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 21,646.0824,765.7822,677.7827,812.3830,465.9533,372.6936,556.7640,044.6243,865.26
EBITDA -2,026.09-959.11-865.96-6,856.71-3,176.44-3,479.50-3,811.48-4,175.13-4,573.48
EBIT -2,471.62-1,600.98-1,709.02-7,823.96-4,078.64-4,467.78-4,894.04-5,360.98-5,872.47
Tax Rate 3.32%3.50%3.63%-0.34%2.53%2.53%2.53%2.53%2.53%
EBIAT -2,389.51-1,544.99-1,646.95-7,850.43-3,975.52-4,354.82-4,770.31-5,225.45-5,724
Depreciation 445.53641.87843.05967.25902.19988.271,082.561,185.851,298.99
Accounts Receivable --121.76-253.44-234.3747.01-135.98-148.96-163.17-178.74
Inventories --7.62-9.6510.17-9.61-3.94-4.31-4.73-5.18
Accounts Payable -38.26158.11-188.97212.7270.7777.5284.9293.02
Capital Expenditure -877.39-360.40-927.86-1,059.23-1,021.26-1,118.70-1,225.43-1,342.35-1,470.42
UFCF -2,821.37-1,354.64-1,836.73-8,355.58-3,844.45-4,554.40-4,988.93-5,464.92-5,986.33
WACC
PV UFCF -3,844.45-4,368.31-4,589.57-4,822.04-5,066.29
SUM PV UFCF -21,763.53

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.26
Free cash flow (t + 1) -6,106.06
Terminal Value -270,179.46
Present Value of Terminal Value -219,312.67

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -241,076.20
Net Debt -5,398.12
Equity Value -235,678.08
Shares Outstanding 2,631.99
Equity Value Per Share -89.54