Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Dine Brands Global, Inc. (DIN)
$61.07
-2.42 (-3.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 780.93 | 910.18 | 689.27 | 896.17 | 909.40 | 963.45 | 1,020.71 | 1,081.38 | 1,145.65 | 1,213.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 204.47 | 241.36 | 1.16 | 225.14 | 213.48 | 195.52 | 207.14 | 219.45 | 232.49 | 246.31 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 172.29 | 198.87 | -41.67 | 185.25 | 175.53 | 149.99 | 158.90 | 168.35 | 178.35 | 188.95 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 32.17 | 42.49 | 42.83 | 39.88 | 37.95 | 45.53 | 48.23 | 51.10 | 54.13 | 57.35 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 137.16 | 116.04 | 383.37 | 361.41 | 269.65 | 300.43 | 318.29 | 337.20 | 357.24 | 378.48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 137.50 | 136.87 | 121.90 | 119.97 | 119.98 | 148.20 | 157.01 | 166.34 | 176.22 | 186.70 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 43.47 | 40.92 | 37.42 | 55.96 | 52.07 | 52.92 | 56.06 | 59.39 | 62.92 | 66.66 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -14.28 | -19.42 | -10.93 | -16.85 | -35.32 | -21.80 | -23.09 | -24.46 | -25.92 | -27.46 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 61.07 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.852 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 15.90 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 29.34 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.47% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.432 |
| Total Debt | 1,742.38 |
| Total Equity | 971.07 |
| Total Capital | 2,713.46 |
| Debt Weighting | 64.21 |
| Equity Weighting | 35.79 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 780.93 | 910.18 | 689.27 | 896.17 | 909.40 | 963.45 | 1,020.71 | 1,081.38 | 1,145.65 | 1,213.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 204.47 | 241.36 | 1.16 | 225.14 | 213.48 | 195.52 | 207.14 | 219.45 | 232.49 | 246.31 |
| EBIT | 172.29 | 198.87 | -41.67 | 185.25 | 175.53 | 149.99 | 158.90 | 168.35 | 178.35 | 188.95 |
| Tax Rate | 27.35% | 24.65% | 4.21% | 19.73% | 29.34% | 21.05% | 21.05% | 21.05% | 21.05% | 21.05% |
| EBIAT | 125.17 | 149.86 | -39.91 | 148.70 | 124.03 | 118.41 | 125.45 | 132.90 | 140.80 | 149.17 |
| Depreciation | 32.17 | 42.49 | 42.83 | 39.88 | 37.95 | 45.53 | 48.23 | 51.10 | 54.13 | 57.35 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.64 | 14.97 | 1.93 | -0.01 | -28.22 | -8.81 | -9.33 | -9.89 | -10.47 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -2.54 | -3.50 | 18.53 | -3.89 | 0.85 | 3.14 | 3.33 | 3.53 | 3.74 |
| Capital Expenditure | -14.28 | -19.42 | -10.93 | -16.85 | -35.32 | -21.80 | -23.09 | -24.46 | -25.92 | -27.46 |
| UFCF | 143.06 | 171.02 | 3.46 | 192.19 | 122.77 | 114.77 | 144.92 | 153.54 | 162.66 | 172.33 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 108.24 | 128.91 | 128.80 | 128.70 | 128.59 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 623.24 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.03 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 175.78 |
| Terminal Value | 4,361.69 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,254.70 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 3,877.94 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,472.73 |
| Equity Value | 2,405.22 |
| Shares Outstanding | 15.90 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 151.26 |