Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK)

$23.32

+0.86 (+3.83%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -268.48 | 23.32 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	10,233.10	9,298.20	7,301.80	10,648.20	20,245.80	25,578.37	32,315.48	40,827.09	51,580.59	65,166.47
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	767.30	717.20	-393.30	135.80	539.50	704.19	889.66	1,123.99	1,420.04	1,794.07
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	567.90	513.40	-671.70	-128.80	11.18	36.71	46.38	58.60	74.04	93.54
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	199.40	203.80	278.40	264.60	528.32	667.47	843.28	1,065.39	1,346.01	1,700.53
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,079.30	955.30	788.60	901.50	841.30	2,263.32	2,859.46	3,612.62	4,564.15	5,766.31
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	538.70	958.20	672.80	780.20	1,234.40	1,954.59	2,469.41	3,119.83	3,941.56	4,979.74
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	690.90	946.70	727.70	1,176.10	1,518.50	2,324.80	2,937.13	3,710.74	4,688.12	5,922.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,011.20	1,599.70	1,144	1,695.30	1,745.60	3,442.67	4,349.44	5,495.04	6,942.38	8,770.95
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-323.70	-432.90	-272.20	-223.20	-690.53	-872.41	-1,102.20	-1,392.51	-1,759.28	-2,222.66
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 23.32
Beta	1.465
Diluted Shares Outstanding	71.52
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	27.45
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.39%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.613
Total Debt	3,225.70
Total Equity	1,667.76
Total Capital	4,893.46
Debt Weighting	65.92
Equity Weighting	34.08
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	10,233.10	9,298.20	7,301.80	10,648.20	20,245.80	25,578.37	32,315.48	40,827.09	51,580.59	65,166.47
EBITDA	767.30	717.20	-393.30	135.80	539.50	704.19	889.66	1,123.99	1,420.04	1,794.07
EBIT	567.90	513.40	-671.70	-128.80	11.18	36.71	46.38	58.60	74.04	93.54
Tax Rate	29.95%	22.87%	20.32%	12.66%	27.45%	22.65%	22.65%	22.65%	22.65%	22.65%
EBIAT	397.82	395.98	-535.18	-112.49	8.11	28.40	35.88	45.33	57.26	72.35
Depreciation	199.40	203.80	278.40	264.60	528.32	667.47	843.28	1,065.39	1,346.01	1,700.53
Accounts Receivable	-	-419.50	285.40	-107.40	-454.20	-720.19	-514.82	-650.42	-821.74	-1,038.17
Inventories	-	-255.80	219	-448.40	-342.40	-806.30	-612.33	-773.61	-977.38	-1,234.81
Accounts Payable	-	588.50	-455.70	551.30	50.30	1,697.07	906.77	1,145.60	1,447.34	1,828.56
Capital Expenditure	-323.70	-432.90	-272.20	-223.20	-690.53	-872.41	-1,102.20	-1,392.51	-1,759.28	-2,222.66
UFCF	273.52	80.08	-480.28	-75.59	-900.40	-5.96	-443.43	-560.22	-707.78	-894.20
WACC
PV UFCF						-5.59	-390.88	-463.65	-549.97	-652.35
SUM PV UFCF										-2,062.44

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.51
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-912.08
Terminal Value	-20,223.58
Present Value of Terminal Value	-14,753.88

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-16,816.31
Net Debt	2,384.40
Equity Value	-19,200.71
Shares Outstanding	71.52
Equity Value Per Share	-268.48