Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK)

$23.32

+0.86 (+3.83%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -268.48 | 23.32 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 10,233.109,298.207,301.8010,648.2020,245.8025,578.3732,315.4840,827.0951,580.5965,166.47
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 767.30717.20-393.30135.80539.50704.19889.661,123.991,420.041,794.07
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 567.90513.40-671.70-128.8011.1836.7146.3858.6074.0493.54
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 199.40203.80278.40264.60528.32667.47843.281,065.391,346.011,700.53
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,079.30955.30788.60901.50841.302,263.322,859.463,612.624,564.155,766.31
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 538.70958.20672.80780.201,234.401,954.592,469.413,119.833,941.564,979.74
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 690.90946.70727.701,176.101,518.502,324.802,937.133,710.744,688.125,922.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,011.201,599.701,1441,695.301,745.603,442.674,349.445,495.046,942.388,770.95
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -323.70-432.90-272.20-223.20-690.53-872.41-1,102.20-1,392.51-1,759.28-2,222.66
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 23.32
Beta 1.465
Diluted Shares Outstanding 71.52
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.45
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.39%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.613
Total Debt 3,225.70
Total Equity 1,667.76
Total Capital 4,893.46
Debt Weighting 65.92
Equity Weighting 34.08
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 10,233.109,298.207,301.8010,648.2020,245.8025,578.3732,315.4840,827.0951,580.5965,166.47
EBITDA 767.30717.20-393.30135.80539.50704.19889.661,123.991,420.041,794.07
EBIT 567.90513.40-671.70-128.8011.1836.7146.3858.6074.0493.54
Tax Rate 29.95%22.87%20.32%12.66%27.45%22.65%22.65%22.65%22.65%22.65%
EBIAT 397.82395.98-535.18-112.498.1128.4035.8845.3357.2672.35
Depreciation 199.40203.80278.40264.60528.32667.47843.281,065.391,346.011,700.53
Accounts Receivable --419.50285.40-107.40-454.20-720.19-514.82-650.42-821.74-1,038.17
Inventories --255.80219-448.40-342.40-806.30-612.33-773.61-977.38-1,234.81
Accounts Payable -588.50-455.70551.3050.301,697.07906.771,145.601,447.341,828.56
Capital Expenditure -323.70-432.90-272.20-223.20-690.53-872.41-1,102.20-1,392.51-1,759.28-2,222.66
UFCF 273.5280.08-480.28-75.59-900.40-5.96-443.43-560.22-707.78-894.20
WACC
PV UFCF -5.59-390.88-463.65-549.97-652.35
SUM PV UFCF -2,062.44

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.51
Free cash flow (t + 1) -912.08
Terminal Value -20,223.58
Present Value of Terminal Value -14,753.88

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -16,816.31
Net Debt 2,384.40
Equity Value -19,200.71
Shares Outstanding 71.52
Equity Value Per Share -268.48