Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK)
$23.32
+0.86 (+3.83%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 10,233.10 | 9,298.20 | 7,301.80 | 10,648.20 | 20,245.80 | 25,578.37 | 32,315.48 | 40,827.09 | 51,580.59 | 65,166.47 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 767.30 | 717.20 | -393.30 | 135.80 | 539.50 | 704.19 | 889.66 | 1,123.99 | 1,420.04 | 1,794.07 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 567.90 | 513.40 | -671.70 | -128.80 | 11.18 | 36.71 | 46.38 | 58.60 | 74.04 | 93.54 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 199.40 | 203.80 | 278.40 | 264.60 | 528.32 | 667.47 | 843.28 | 1,065.39 | 1,346.01 | 1,700.53 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,079.30 | 955.30 | 788.60 | 901.50 | 841.30 | 2,263.32 | 2,859.46 | 3,612.62 | 4,564.15 | 5,766.31 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 538.70 | 958.20 | 672.80 | 780.20 | 1,234.40 | 1,954.59 | 2,469.41 | 3,119.83 | 3,941.56 | 4,979.74 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 690.90 | 946.70 | 727.70 | 1,176.10 | 1,518.50 | 2,324.80 | 2,937.13 | 3,710.74 | 4,688.12 | 5,922.92 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1,011.20 | 1,599.70 | 1,144 | 1,695.30 | 1,745.60 | 3,442.67 | 4,349.44 | 5,495.04 | 6,942.38 | 8,770.95 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -323.70 | -432.90 | -272.20 | -223.20 | -690.53 | -872.41 | -1,102.20 | -1,392.51 | -1,759.28 | -2,222.66 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 23.32 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.465 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 71.52 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 27.45 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.39% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.613 |
Total Debt | 3,225.70 |
Total Equity | 1,667.76 |
Total Capital | 4,893.46 |
Debt Weighting | 65.92 |
Equity Weighting | 34.08 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 10,233.10 | 9,298.20 | 7,301.80 | 10,648.20 | 20,245.80 | 25,578.37 | 32,315.48 | 40,827.09 | 51,580.59 | 65,166.47 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 767.30 | 717.20 | -393.30 | 135.80 | 539.50 | 704.19 | 889.66 | 1,123.99 | 1,420.04 | 1,794.07 |
EBIT | 567.90 | 513.40 | -671.70 | -128.80 | 11.18 | 36.71 | 46.38 | 58.60 | 74.04 | 93.54 |
Tax Rate | 29.95% | 22.87% | 20.32% | 12.66% | 27.45% | 22.65% | 22.65% | 22.65% | 22.65% | 22.65% |
EBIAT | 397.82 | 395.98 | -535.18 | -112.49 | 8.11 | 28.40 | 35.88 | 45.33 | 57.26 | 72.35 |
Depreciation | 199.40 | 203.80 | 278.40 | 264.60 | 528.32 | 667.47 | 843.28 | 1,065.39 | 1,346.01 | 1,700.53 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -419.50 | 285.40 | -107.40 | -454.20 | -720.19 | -514.82 | -650.42 | -821.74 | -1,038.17 |
Inventories | - | -255.80 | 219 | -448.40 | -342.40 | -806.30 | -612.33 | -773.61 | -977.38 | -1,234.81 |
Accounts Payable | - | 588.50 | -455.70 | 551.30 | 50.30 | 1,697.07 | 906.77 | 1,145.60 | 1,447.34 | 1,828.56 |
Capital Expenditure | -323.70 | -432.90 | -272.20 | -223.20 | -690.53 | -872.41 | -1,102.20 | -1,392.51 | -1,759.28 | -2,222.66 |
UFCF | 273.52 | 80.08 | -480.28 | -75.59 | -900.40 | -5.96 | -443.43 | -560.22 | -707.78 | -894.20 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -5.59 | -390.88 | -463.65 | -549.97 | -652.35 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -2,062.44 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.51 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -912.08 |
Terminal Value | -20,223.58 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -14,753.88 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -16,816.31 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,384.40 |
Equity Value | -19,200.71 |
Shares Outstanding | 71.52 |
Equity Value Per Share | -268.48 |